Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - John_Mauldin
2. Stocks Bull Market Grinds Bears into Dust, Is Santa Rally Sustainable? - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
4.Gold Price Golden Bottom? - Toby_Connor
5.Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume - P_Radomski_CFA
6.Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - Rambus_Chartology
7.Gold Price 2015 - EWI
8.Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns - DeviantInvestor
10.Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - Michael_Noonan
Last 5 days
VIX is Reversing, Other Stock Market Indicators are Faltering - 28th Nov 14
Will The Swiss People Resist The Massive Anti-Gold Propaganda? - 28th Nov 14
Dramatic Increase in Gold Flows into China - 28th Nov 14
Britain's Immigration Catastrophe Continues, David Cameron's Impotent Speech on Stopping In Work Benefits - 28th Nov 14
Netherlands, Germany Have Euro Disaster Plan - Possible Return to Guilder and Mark - 28th Nov 14
Russia’s Gold Monetary Solution - 28th Nov 14
British Government Publishes UK, Scotland DevoMax Smith Report Suicide Note - 28th Nov 14
The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy - 27th Nov 14
Brazilian Bovespa Stock Market Technical Analysis - 27th Nov 14
Gold Price Would Soar on Possible Swiss Yes Vote - 27th Nov 14
Crude Oil Asset Bubble Trouble - 27th Nov 14
Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas - 27th Nov 14
The Dow Jones Stocks Index - Beautiful Tree in the Desert - 27th Nov 14
The Digital World, The Opiate of The People - 27th Nov 14
Harry Dent's Simple Strategy for Surviving Withdrawals from Markets on Crack - 27th Nov 14
Socialist France Just Cannot Compete Against Google Freedom - 27th Nov 14
A Short Tale About the Grand Manipulation of Crude Oil Prices - 26th Nov 14
China Secret Gold Buying ... How Could It Happen? - 26th Nov 14
Gold Price Spikes to $1,467.50/oz on Computer Glitch? - 26th Nov 14
Gold - So Bad It's Good: Surviving 2014 - 26th Nov 14
TrueShopping.co.uk Real Customer Experience Review - Online Shopping Lessons - 26th Nov 14
Is There A New Global Consensus About Cheating Investors To Reboot Employment? - 26th Nov 14
EUR/USD – Currency Bulls Don’t Give Up - 26th Nov 14
Swiss Gold Referendum A Golden Opportunity for Switzerland - 25th Nov 14
Silver: What COT Analysis Tells Us - 25th Nov 14
Stock Market Big, Bold and Ugly - 25th Nov 14
U.S. Dollar Near Top? Gold and Silver Trading, Platinum Breakout Invalidation - 25th Nov 14
Buy Fear - Easily Pick Up Profits on Stock Market Dips - 25th Nov 14
The Islamic State Reshapes the Middle East - 25th Nov 14
Gold Price Forecast 2015 - 25th Nov 14
The Swiss Referendum On Gold: What’s Missing From The Debate - 25th Nov 14
Clash of Generations - Why Millennials Still Live at Home; Not Jobs, Student Debt, or Housing - 25th Nov 14
Stock Market Reminiscent of Pompeii - 25th Nov 14
Once Upon A Time There Were Philosopher Kings - 24th Nov 14
The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained - 24th Nov 14
China Stock Investing - Follow the Money! - 24th Nov 14
122 Tonnes of Gold Secretly Repatriated to Netherlands - 24th Nov 14
What Causes the U.S. Dollar to Move? - 24th Nov 14
Stock Market Indexes New Highs - Will Uptrend Extend Even Further? - 24th Nov 14
All Hail the King U.S. Dollar - Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 14
Where Is China Economy On The Map Exactly? - 24th Nov 14
Most of The World Economies Panic - Is The US Next? - 24th Nov 14
Stock Market Exhaustion Gap? - 24th Nov 14
Gold Golden Gains Come After The Pain - 24th Nov 14
Crude Oil and Stock Market Setting The Stage For The Next Recession - 23rd Nov 14
This Publicly-Owned Bank Is Outperforming Wall Street - 23rd Nov 14
Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? - 23rd Nov 14
Strategic, Methodological and Developmental Importance of Knowledge Consumption - 23rd Nov 14
Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - 23rd Nov 14
Gold Price 2015 - 22nd Nov 14
Stock Market Medium Term Top? - 22nd Nov 14
Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - 22nd Nov 14
Malaysia's Subsidy and Budget Deficit Conundrum - 22nd Nov 14
Investors Hated Gold at Precisely the Wrong Time: What About Now? - 22nd Nov 14
Gold and GLD ETF Selloff - 22nd Nov 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Report 2015

Gold Prices Coming to the End of Bear Phase

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 May 07, 2014 - 10:32 AM GMT

By: Bob_Kirtley

Commodities

Background
It’s been almost 30 months since the gold bull hit the dizzy heights of $1900/oz back in August 2011, sending many of us into raptures. However, it has been a very different story since then with gold slipping to a low of $1180/oz in June 2013 before bouncing higher to almost touch the $1400/oz level. Fast forward to today and we have gold trading at around $1310/oz level, having tested the June bottom around Christmas time 2013. Many believe that the bottom is now in and the bull has resumed charge, with the bears being exhausted. We would like to agree with them but we are still of the opinion that a challenge to the June lows could still lie ahead of us.


Gold
Gold prices are presently being dragged in both directions with the geo-political issues in the Ukraine putting upward pressure on gold as it is viewed as a safe haven in terms of protecting ones wealth. Gold is something you can take with you should the need arrive and you have to move to a safer location in a hurry. However, for many of us our need to own gold is based the perennial devaluation of our own countries currency. In the world of paper money it is difficult to think of a country where the government is not actively trying to devalue its own currency via various forms of money printing. This form of monetary policy is a short term fix at best as it does not address the basic problem of competitiveness via increased production and better working methods. This is something that we have to live with as our political leaders prioritize their survival through to the next election, rather than do what is best for the longer term.

We have written previously about a possible final capitulation and about monetary policy so today we would like to bring to your attention two other factors that deserve our consideration regarding the direction of the precious metals sector; they are Backwardation and the performance of the US Dollar

Firstly, Backwardation in the price of gold is now more persistent than ever which tells us those investors will pay a higher price today in order to take delivery and secure their purchase. To actually pay now and then have to wait months before your gold is dispatched has the inherent risk of it never being dispatched and/or some sort of cash settlement being offered if an order cannot be completed. To be willing to pay more money today for gold than buy it cheaper in a few months’ time suggests a lack of trust in the current system of futures trading.

Secondly, the US Dollar has an adverse relationship with gold so when it rallies gold prices tend to fall and when the dollar falls gold tends to rise. We can see on the chart below that the dollar is struggling to hold above the ‘79’ level on the US Dollar Index, however it has been there a number of times over the last year and survived the drop.

Should it close for a few days or more below this level we could well see it sold off and drop to around the ‘72’ level in short order. It doesn’t sound like much but it is a fall of almost 10%. Should gold in turn rally by 10% then we would have gold prices standing at $1430/oz. This move up could well be the catalyst that ignites a full scale rally in gold prices.

Silver
Silver prices are struggling today to hold up above the $20/oz level which irritates us as it does not support gold’s advance. Gold and silver usually move in unison even though silver has many industrial purposes which effectively take supply off the market never to be seen again. Silver is managing to trade above the June lows but without any real conviction. Although gold could go it alone we would be far more comfortable if silver prices would put in a more convincing performance and headed to higher ground.

The Precious Metals Mining Stocks
The gold mining sector as represented by the HUI did break down and penetrate the June lows in December 2013, before rallying to around the 250 level. Since then the early 2014 rally has lost some of its traction and formed a sideways consolidation pattern. On occasion the mining sector has been known to lead the precious metals sector to higher ground. This has been difficult of late due to the high costs of mining which in turn puts pressure on any producer’s bottom line, increasing the reluctance of investors to put their hard earned cash at risk.

Conclusion
We are still not sure that this bear phase in the gold bull market is over but we feel that it is closer than ever before. Should the dollar start to plunge then gold prices will increase dramatically. On the other hand should the dollar bounce from current levels and put in a reasonable rally then gold could fall. Given that we entering the summer doldrums for gold it could easily slip far enough to challenge the June 2013 lows of $1180/oz. At the moment its knife edge stuff as it could swing either way.

Our strategy is to keep our gun powder dry until we get either a serious spike down or signs that this bear phase has run its course and is now exhausted. We are looking forward with great excitement for this bull to resume its trek north. We have short listed a number of stocks which we expect to rise in multiples of the gold and silver price rise. This list is constantly being honed in an attempt to select only those stocks with the greatest likelihood of success.

If you are new to this sector of the market do the work right now as the next month or so could herald changes of such magnitude that it will take your breath away.  

Disagree? Then please feel free to comment.

Bob Kirtley
Email:bob@gold-prices.biz
URL: www.silver-prices.net
URL: www.skoptionstrading.com

To stay updated on our market commentary, which gold stocks we are buying and why, please subscribe to The Gold Prices Newsletter, completely FREE of charge. Simply click here and enter your email address. Winners of the GoldDrivers Stock Picking Competition 200

DISCLAIMER : Gold Prices makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided on this site. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This website represents our views and nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this website. We may or may not hold a position in these securities at any given time and reserve the right to buy and sell as we think fit.

Bob Kirtley Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014