Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Happy Holidays

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Dec 27, 2014 - 08:07 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The week started at SPX 2071. On Monday the market rallied to the previous all time high at SPX 2079. Then on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday it made higher highs, reaching SPX 2093. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.15%, the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%, and the DJ World index gained 0.80%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: Q3 GDP, personal income/spending, the FHFA index and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: existing/new home sales, consumer sentiment, durable goods, and the WLEI. Next week, another holiday shortened week, there are only two reports scheduled: ISM manufacturing and Construction spending, both on Friday.


LONG TERM: bull market

With three trading days left in 2014, it appears this bull market will soon enter its sixth year. The long term trend is up, the medium term trend is up, and the short term trend is impulsing higher. The market is up 13% for the year, and may even hit 14% before close of business on Wednesday. All in all a fairly solid gain considering the alternatives.

We continue to label this market as Cycle wave [1], the first bull market of the multi-generational Super cycle wave 3. Cycle wave [1] should unfold in five primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves: with a subdividing Major wave 1 and simple Major waves 3 and 5. Primary wave III appears to be alternating with that pattern: a simple Major wave 1 and thus far a subdividing Major wave 3. Since Major wave 3 has yet to complete, it recently extended again, we still have Major waves 4 and 5 ahead before even Primary III completes. Then after a Primary IV correction, Primary V should then take the market even higher. After 69 months of generally rising prices, the market has more than tripled. It appears this bull market has many months to go, if not, a few years.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Nearing the SPX 2079 early December uptrend high, we expected a correction ranging anywhere from 5% to 15% to unfold. The reason for the range is that we have been monitoring three potential counts for this bull market. The preferred count, which has been posted in these reports, suggested a 5% to 10% correction. Ten percent if Major wave 3 completed at SPX 2079, or 5% if Intermediate wave v of Major 3 was subdividing.

After the uptrend topped and the correction was underway, we tracked the wave pattern to observe how it was unfolding. We counted a simple zigzag down to SPX 2024 for an A wave, then a simple rally to 2056 for wave B. After that the wave C that followed became complex. Nevertheless, we identified a potential low at SPX 1973 a week ago Tuesday. At that low the market had corrected 5.1%, and all of the technical parameters we track suggested a potential downtrend low. The following day the market rallied in five waves to SPX 2012, pulled back to 1992, then rallied to 2017 before ending the day at 2013. A new uptrend appeared underway.

This week OEW confirmed the uptrend. With only a 5% downtrend correction, an Intermediate wave v extension is probably underway. This suggests the uptrend high at SPX 2079 was only Minor 1 of Int. v, and the low at 1973 Minor 2. This uptrend should be Minor 3. Our initial target for this uptrend is the OEW pivot at 2214. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2214 pivots.

SHORT TERM

As noted above, from the downtrend low at SPX 1973 the market rallied five waves to 2012. We are counting that as wave 1 of Minute i of this Minor 3 uptrend. Then after a pullback to SPX 1992, wave 2, the market rallied in wave 3 of Minute i. Thus far, we can count seven waves up from that low into Friday’s high at SPX 2093. This suggests a pullback, and then one more rally to end this third wave.

The internal structure of this rally suggests a maximum high, for this third wave, at SPX 2100. Should that level be exceeded before we observe about a 20 point pullback, then the count would have to be updated. The updated count would suggest Minute i and ii ended at SPX 2012 and 1992, with Minute iii underway. And not, as previously noted. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2100 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.0%.

The European markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.9%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher for a net gain of 3.4%.

The DJ World index gained 0.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude also continues to downtrend and lost 4.6% on the week.

Gold is still in an uptrend, had a choppy week, and gained 0.1%.

The seven month uptrend continues as the USD gained 0.5% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Thursday: holiday. Friday: ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am. Nothing noted on the FED’s agenda. Best to your weekend and New Year week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in