Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top!

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Mar 02, 2015 - 03:12 AM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock-Markets

The 10/20 week cycle low is due within this time frame. The previous 10 wk cycle low (ideally 50 trading days) on Dec 15, 2014 ran just 43 trading days. The next ideal trading low is due on March 6, 2015.

Feb 24 marked an irregular topping pattern off the Feb 20 top, which in Elliott Wave terms means that after the expected fast sell-off, a fast rally should ensue. The larger (b) wave shown on the chart should tag near SPX 2008/09. The next top (wave 'c') should occur about 15 trading days after the Feb 24 top and that should be around Mar 18 near 2130.


The chart below shows a more micro look at the chart. I also adjusted the expected b wave bull flag into an expanded irr. flat, which projects down to near SPX 1958/60 by April 20. There is an adjusted 10/20 wk cycle (that is a mirror of what happened last year prior to the Oct 2014 drop, which also made trading for me a lot more difficult in 2014) due between February 2, 2015 and April 20, 2015. Ideally, we should see a final top on June 3, 2015 near SPX 2200 (max) and a drop to under 1670 by around June 29 (I may need to change these dates and prices slightly as we get closer).

Note that I have labeled that expected top as a larger Wave -Y- with -X- occurring in mid Oct 2014. I label bullish flag patterns as X-Y-Z and bearish flag patterns as W-X-Y to distinguish the differences. Note also that wave (a) was an a-b-c type rally interrupted by the drop into mid Dec 2014 which was wave 'b' of that series.

Wave -X- was itself an E-Wave Irregular Flat (strong) with wave 'x' of that wave ending in early August, wave 'y' into Sept 19 and 'z' into Oct 15. That launched the market higher into the expected Wave -Y- top due soon.

Overall, drawing an ascending line since Feb 5, 2014 connecting into the Oct 15, 2014 bottoms we have been forming a bearish broadening top formation I call an "irregular megaphone pattern". We had a small one occur in late 2013 that caused the market to drop into the Feb 5, 2014 low near SPX 1737/38. The current one is expected to drop the SPX to below 1737 (probably near 1700 or slightly below) by late June (or early/mid July latest) to fit the 8/9 mo. cycle low pattern from Oct 2014.

Overall, once the pattern is complete, it forms a more perfect bullish broadening top pattern termed the Strong Irregular Flat (or perfect/regular megaphone pattern), which will launch a final wave into the next major cycle top due in 2018 (Benner's Cycle). The 2018/2020-21 drop will likely rival the stock market crash of 1929/32(IMHO).

Note also that we have been in an ascending wedge pattern and broke that in Oct 2014 in what I term a 'false break' (we may see another one in mid April 2015). This is another sign of weakness going forward once the launch to new highs occurs as is happening right now. A large breakdown out of this type of pattern is always expected and is considered a "waterfall decline".

Below is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 showing the long term "rising wedge pattern" from the Mar 2009 bottom to present. Also shown, is a reformed channel that shows support near 1667 SPX in late June 2015. I also term the waves as "Pseudo" as they are not true 5 wave sequences, but part of a larger Wave IV pattern starting in the year 2000 (IMHO).

Below is a chart of the daily SPY. It shows Granville's On-Balance-Volume clearly depicting as we go higher that the strong players are slowly distributing into weaker hands. Once we do top (probably in early June) the market will crack hard as is the case coming out of a rising wedge pattern. The fundamentals are likely going to be due to the FED either raising rates in June or giving the appearance they will do so (or possibly some other unforeseen event). This is at a time when Europe is lowering rates to negative returns, weakening their currency (the Euro). A huge currency adjustment is coming! There are also signs of over speculation at a time when there is a slowdown occurring in the economy (especially worldwide).

In the macro view, I believe we are approaching a top of historic proportions in the year 2018. The top this year should yield to a 20/24%+ bear market, but it should lead us even higher as these patterns always do. What awaits us after 2018 has me concerned the most.

Brad Gudgeon
Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

www.blustarmarkettimer.info

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look at www.blustarcharts.weebly.com Copyright 2015. All Rights Reserved

Copyright 2015, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.
Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in