Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
China Is Building the World’s Largest Innovation Economy - 21st Sep 18
How Can New Companies Succeed in the Overcrowded Online Gambling Market? - 21st Sep 18
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Gold And Silver - What Moved Price? Bab el-Mandeb And Uranus Square Pluto. What?!

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Mar 28, 2015 - 08:38 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

So many "experts" have so much to say in correlating the current prices for gold and silver with factors like how much gold China and Russia have been accumulating, the shortages of and demand for physical PMs, hypothecating, rehypothocating [aka stealing] of gold by Western Central Banks, the record sales for gold and silver coins, world-wide, etc, etc, etc.

Yet, with all of the pinpoint accuracy in reporting, backed by statistics, graphs, charts with arrows drawn in to show the next direction [always wrong] for PMs, there has been little demonstrable cause and effect relations between events and prices. We have two.


The easy one first, yet the one hardest for most people to accept: planetary influences on the real world, found in the expression, "As above, so below." What happens above, in the planets, is manifested on earth. We do know for a fact that W D Gann was an astute astrologer, and he incorporated planetary movements very successfully in his work. "Wheels within wheels," as he would say. Planetary orbits within each other relative to earth.

Now, before dismissing this notion out of hand, consider this: Most people in the world believe a Federal Reserve Note [FRN], is actually a dollar. If you are one of the many who happens to believe this massive lie as a fact, you have your facts wrong and should not be so judgmental of other facts. As an aside, a Federal Reserve Note is a debt instrument issued by the U S Treasury. That is a proven and known fact. Where it breaks down is in the mistaken belief that debt is money. Debt is the opposite of money, but this is not an article on what is and what is not money.

The lawful definition of a dollar is found in the Coinage Act of 1793, Section 20. This Act has never been overturned and is recognized as law to this day. It is the corporate Federal government that chooses to ignore the law and pretend Federal Reserve debt is money.

Moving on.

A Uranus square Pluto conjunction occurs when the planets are 90 degrees apart from each other. From 2012 through 2015, Uranus has squared Pluto seven times, the last on 18 March, a few weeks ago. What happened to gold during these events? When the Sun transits [moves across] the mid-point of the square, a change in trend is indicated. The October 2014 squaring was somewhat of a non-event, but there was a brief opportunity, and one need not have suffered loss exposure. Plus, nothing is perfect.

For all of those who utilize fundamental analysis, even conventional technical tools, none have been as on target as the one from "Above."

Gold Weekly Chart

Back to earth. Where on earth is Bab el-Mandeb, and why did it affect the price of gold?

It is the purported shipping "choke point" for oil tankers, the 4th largest in the world. The strait is located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, and it connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

Middle East Map

Saudi Arabia just pulled an Obama and began bombing Yemen back into the Stone Age.

Why? Ostensibly, the Saudis want to ensure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is kept open for oil tanker passage. There is an unfounded "fear" that the Houthis of Yemen will cause major disruptions. Exactly who are the Houthis? Excellent question.

They are a purely Yemeni localized group, Shia, that want to keep Yemen free of government corruption. They are anti-American, no surprise there given the US history of destruction in the Middle East and the phony war on terror, but all the Houthis want is to be respected and not discriminated against by the government. They are not a warring faction and have no military capability, per se, and they have never been known to be a threat outside of Yemen. They are being labeled as "rebels" by the mainstream press because the Obama administration wants that kind of rhetoric in order to shape public opinion about them.

The Houthis have had some backing by Iran, and therein lies the rub. It is really the Arab Sunnis against Iranian Shias. One brand of Muslims against the other. The bombing of Yemen is a proxy war to get to Iran, just like the US-led coup in Ukraine has been a failed proxy war against Russia, in fact, one that has back-fired badly on Obama. After three days of intense bombing by the Saudis, the entire military structure of the legitimate Yemeni government has been destroyed. No one is being held accountable. Obama is backing the Saudis on yet another war bringing yet more destruction to innocent people.

This Saudi action prompted a sharp rally in gold and silver. The threat to any blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a fiction, yet oil and gold rallied because of it. By Friday, the tenor of the gold/silver rally had abated.

What could be interesting, as an aside, is to see if China steps in and tells the Saudis to back off. China has a military presence near that strait, but the reason for a potential intervention is not that, rather, China has had its fill with the Obama administration administering destruction wherever it chooses to go.

While all eyes are focused on China's enormous build-up of physical gold, the anticipation that perhaps that country will use their gold to initiate a "gold reset" using the Yuan, and the eventual destruction of the Fed's fiat "dollar," [really, just a FRN, a debt instrument], hardly anyone was paying attention to another Uranus square Pluto, and few had ever hear of the Houthis or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Both were pivotal, albeit temporary, forces on gold, last week. We knew about the squaring, but not about the square off in the Arabian Gulf.

The month does not end until Tuesday, but we will include the monthly charts just to take a peek on how they may end and if they may show anything going into April. There is nothing conclusive that says the correction from the 2011 highs has ended. Rallying and staying above 18 is the first hurdle silver must meet.

Silver Monthly Chart

Going by previous patterns, last week we indicated this week's activity had a higher probability of being a small range bar, which is exactly what developed. The location of the close suggests more selling may enter the market next week, and that would be in keeping with price activity in a down trending market. The onus for change is on buyers, and they have not yet met that burden.

Silver Weekly Chart

The increased volume on the rally high, the mid-range close location on that bar, and the overlapping of the last 4 bars says sellers were meeting the efforts of buyers, creating a balance. From balance comes unbalance and odds favor a correction, although anything can happen.

Two areas of support are the 16.60 to 16.37 area, to as far as the D/S bar [Demand over Supply] low, the 16.10 area. In a down market, price usually makes greater inroads into a D/S bar. The character of the bars on any decline, along with volume, will determine if identified supports will hold.

Silver Daily Chart

Regardless of where price closes for March, there is still a lot of effort required to turn this trend around.

Gold Monthly Chart

The developing market activity speaks for itself. Typical action in a down trending market. There is still no evidence of a turn in the offering.

Gold Weekly Chart 2

After an $80 rally, there is room for a normal correction to develop over the next few weeks.

Gold Daily Chart

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2015 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules