Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Focusing on May Cycle Bottom - Jim_Curry
3.Silver, silver, and silver! There’s More Than Silver, People! - P_Radomski_CFA
4.Is the Malaysian Economy a Potemkin Village - Sam_Chee_Kong
5.Stock Market Study Shows Why You Shouldn’t “Sell in May and Go Away” - Troy_Bombardia
6.A Big Stock Market Shock is About to Start - Martin C
7.A Long Term Gold Very Unpopular View - Rambus_Chartology
8.Stock Market “Sell in May and go away” Study When Stocks Are Down YTD - Troy_Bombardia
9.Global Currency RESET Challenge: Ultimate Twist - Jim_Willie_CB
10.The Coming Silver Supply Crunch Is Worse Than You Know - Jeff Clark
Last 7 days
Gold, US Stocks and Bonds - 26th MAY 18
Climate Change Canaries and Our Changing Climate - 26th MAY 18
Gold Junior Stocks GDXJ ETF Fundamentals - 26th MAY 18
What to Expect at a Critical Stock Market Point: End of a Wave 2 Rally - 25th May 18
Merlin Passes Top Tips for Buying and Using Premium vs Standard, Theme Parks UK - 25th May 18
Trump “Victories” on Trade are Anything But - 25th May 18
Crude Oil: It’s Here! - 25th May 18
Stock Market Distribution Pattern Revealed - 25th May 18
Stock Market Topping - Everything Looks Rosy at the End of a Trend! - 25th May 18
Trump Puts North Korea Nuclear WAR Back on Track as Plans for Nobel Peace Prize Evaporate - 25th May 18
Insane EU GDPR SCAM Triggers Mass Email Spam Attacks! - 24th May 18
Stock Market Higher Again, but Still No Breakout - 24th May 18
Study: Slowing Global Economic Growth IS NOT Bearish for U.S. Stocks - 24th May 18
What if This Week’s Rally in Gold is Already Over? - 24th May 18
EUR/USD – Reward for Bears - 24th May 18
5 Terrible Trading Mistakes That Rookie Investors Keep Making - 24th May 18
More Clarity for the Short Term for Bitcoin Price - 22nd May 18
Study: A Rising and Strong U.S. Dollar Isn’t Consistently Bearish for the Stock Market - 22nd May 18
Gold, Silver & US Dollar Updates with Review of Latest COTS - 22nd May 18
Upside DOW Stock Market Breakout May Be Just the Beginning - 22nd May 18
5 Reasons Why Forex Trading Is Becoming Such A Big Deal In SA - 22nd May 18
Fibonacci And Elliot Wave Predict Stock Market Breakout Highs - 21st May 18
Stock Market Ideal Cycle Low Near - 21st May 18
5 Effects Of Currency Fluctuations On The Economy - 21st May 18
Financial Conditions are Still too Easy for the Stocks Bull Market to End - 21st May 18
US Stock Market Elliott Wave Predictions for 2018 and Beyond - 20th May 18
Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos? - 20th May 18
US Stocks - Why I am Short-term Bearish, Medium-term Bullish - 20th May 18
Looking for a Turn in Gold Price - 20th May 18
GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 - 19th May 18
Semiconductor Stock Market Canaries: Chirp, Warble… Soon a Croak and Silence? - 19th May 18
Three Drivers of Gold Price - 18th May 18
Gold Market in First Tertile of 2018 - 18th May 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Lessons

Silver Price - Are We There Yet?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Aug 03, 2015 - 10:44 AM GMT

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Commodities

For an individual to fix Libor is a crime. For a central bank to suppress European bond yields is an act of financial statesmanship. - Jim Grant

ca·pit·u·la·tion

kəˌpiCHəˈlāSH(ə)n/

noun 


  1. the action of surrendering or ceasing to resist an opponent or demand."the victor sees it as a sign of capitulation

Financially speaking…

“When investors give up any previous gains in stock price by selling equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.”

Based upon reports of physical retail shortages of silver, there is no “retail” capitulation to speak of…

Paper price may indicate that things couldn’t be worse. And yet that which gives rise to the price — derivatives - suggest that things could not be better.

Paper prices are an illusion. Unfortunately they are illusion that we all must obey when buying and selling the physical asset.

The surge in retail silver premiums may be a slight echo of the underlying potential for the next move up - but a tiny one.

The reality lies just below the surface.

The trade reporting data says it all. Where the managed money collective has piled on short to a lever never before seen.

Indeed paper price is a COMEX - trade position - paper-managed affair.

COMEX is the most important derivative exchange for silver volume by far. It remains the primary price determining mechanism. Tokyo and Shanghai are tiny in comparison. London is a dark , non-standard over-the-market, priced in US dollars, that keys from COMEX while being fully managed by the big banks.

The COMEX silver speculative short or the sized of the managed money category has once again, moved right back to all time highs joined now by gold for the first time in reporting history.

In silver, that’s 55,000 contracts, or a staggering 275 million ounces. More than one third of the metal produced by the world in one year, against a paltry 178 million “physical ounces”  held in the warehouse system - registered and eligible combined. 

This, in a market with 190,000 open contracts or nearly one billion ounces in derivative form.

All while the commercial net short positions in both metals are at extreme cyclical  and multi-year lows.

The big banks - with JPM as the leader - have essentially cleared the runways for higher prices.

For the metals it simply doesn’t get anymore bullish than this. And yet, almost no one sees it. In fact, the majority paying attention are celebrating the end of precious metals.

Given JP Morgan’s colossal hoarding of physical silver over the last four years beginning in May of 2011, it ‘feels’ scripted.

As soon as we cross over the next few levels of ever-lower moving averages we will be off to the races. A race that will stop only when and only if they decide to stop it’s advance.

Price suppression remains vexing for even the most diehard investors.

It’s natural to want to find justification for any price.

And yet, there is very little issue and basically no mainstream opposition with regard to interest rates.

This all anyone should need to know.

Where is the visible hand in that scenario?

The LIBOR fix was one thing. How soon we forget that the fix - which determines the cost of money and credit across trillions of dollars - was totally fixed by a small club? And federal funds rates should be so different?

No wonder regulators turn a blind eye so easily when it comes to the silver disconnect.

There are no markets - just interventions.

For more articles like this, and/or for a breath of fresh silver market reality amidst the stench of denial and technically meaningless short term price obsessed madness, check out http://www.silver-coin-investor.com

By Dr. Jeff Lewis

    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, in addition to running a busy medical practice, is the editor of Silver-Coin-Investor.com

    Copyright © 2015 Dr. Jeff Lewis- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dr. Jeff Lewis Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules