Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Has Next UK Financial Crisis Just Started? Bank Accounts Being Frozen - 21st July 19
Silver to Continue Lagging Gold, Will Struggle to Overcome $17 - 21st July 19
What’s With all the Weird Weather?  - 21st July 19
Halifax Stopping Customers Withdrawing Funds Online - UK Brexit Banking Crisis Starting? - 21st July 19
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 - 20th July 19
MICROSOFT Cortana, Azure AI Platform Machine Intelligence Stock Investing Video - 20th July 19
Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences - 20th July 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis - 20th July 19
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Precious Metals Microcosm Expanding

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Aug 20, 2015 - 02:17 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

NFTRH 353 introduced the idea of a Macrocosm, a planetary representation of elements that need to come into place for a real investment stance on the gold stock sector (as opposed to the imagined elements cooked up by perma-bulls over the last few years).  The Macrocosm idea came to me when the gold sector was acting firmly counter-cyclical on a day that most other markets were suffering.  Then it happened again.


Yet again yesterday, and this morning, with stock markets red, crude oil red and negativity in the air for positively correlated markets, the microcosm is expanding incrementally.  These are snapshots in time, as the gold sector displays a different character, as it should, when the global macro backdrop grinds toward a counter-cycle.  At some point, the Micro is going to become a trend and hence, the Macro.

This has been NFTRH’s primary thesis during the post-2011 economic expansion and precious metals bear market.  Simply understanding that a positive economic cycle was willed into being by decree of man (and woman) with ultra-aggressive and innovative global inflation policy kept us out of the way of the gold bear, but it also keeps us watchful for the next bull.  Post-2012 especially, has been a positive economic cycle (to varying degrees globally, and consistently though unspectacularly in the US).

The first negative signal that has since shown up on the macro was gold’s rise vs. general commodities in 2014.  That started the clock ticking, although its implications of global economic contraction were felt globally, but not yet in the US.

Within this, we have noted that while the global macro has not fully come in line for gold mining, sector fundamentals have been improving.  Gold vs. crude oil is but one example of a fundamental underpinning being built into energy-intensive gold mining operations.

Then an important macro signal was registered earlier this year as cyclical Palladium began to drop in relation to counter-cyclical gold.  For the past year NFTRH has been noting the jagged up and down whipsaw of this cyclical indicator and then as it triggered a down signal amid an ‘as good as it’s gonna get’ economic backdrop, we did not argue with it.  We incorporated its message of coming global economic problems.

In early 2013 it paid to heed the positive signal.  In 2015, it pays to heed the negative signal, although no one indicator should be taken in a vacuum as a mystical be-all, end-all.

The Microcosm is accumulating signals that call for a coming change in trends and a shift to a counter-cyclical Macrocosm.  The gold sector would be the right one for investing in this environment (quality stocks only please).  While improvements are being made this week, as I write in real time, not all signals are in line yet for a new long-term trend.

Indeed, NFTRH anticipated and has managed the current ‘bounce’ in the gold sector.  Only when all sector and macro fundamentals come in line will we call it a Macrocosmic investment enviroment for the counter-cyclical gold sector.  But it does appear that things are in transition.

We will be managing the proper signals on a weekly basis with as many (or as few) in-week updates as required to be positioned correctly.  It is possible that a new bull market is beginning right here, right now in the Microcosm.  When all sector and macro funda are in line and technical parameters are registered, then we will state so.  Until then, it’s all management, perspective and patience… as usual.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2015 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules