Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
Next Tory Leader, Prime Minister Forecast and Betting Market Odds - 18th Nov 18
The Fed's Misleading Money Supply Measures - 17th Nov 18
Stock Market Outlook: Why the Economy is Bullish for Stocks Going into 2019 - 17th Nov 18
NO DEAL HARD BrExit Tory Chaos, Theresa May Leadership Challenge - 17th Nov 18
Gold vs Several Key Investments - 17th Nov 18
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Q3 18 Fundamentals - 17th Nov 18
Is Gold Under or Overpriced? - 17th Nov 18
Active Managers are Bearish on Stocks. A Bullish Contrarian Sign - 16th Nov 18
Will The Fed Sacrifice Retirement Portfolio Values For The "Common Good"? - 16th Nov 18
BrExit War - Tory Party About to Replace Theresa May for NO DEAL BrExit - 16th Nov 18
Aspire Global Makes Significant Financial Strides - 16th Nov 18
Gold Oil and Commodities …Back to the Future ? - 16th Nov 18
Will Oil Price Crash Lead to “Contagion” for the U.S. Stock Market? - 15th Nov 18
How NOT to Be Among the MANY Stock Investors Fooled by This Market Myth - 15th Nov 18
Tory BrExit Chaos Cripples UK Economy, Wrecks Housing Market Confidence - 15th Nov 18
Stocks Could End 2018 With A Dramatic Rally - 15th Nov 18
What Could Be the Last Nail in This Stock Bull Markets Coffin - 15th Nov 18
Defensive Stock Sectors Outperforming, Just Like During the Dot-com Bubble - 15th Nov 18
Buying Your First Home? Here’s How to Save Money - 15th Nov 18
US Economy Ten Points or Ten Miles to ‘Bridge Out’? - 14th Nov 18
US Stocks: Whither from Here? - 14th Nov 18
Know exactly when to Enter&Exit trades using this... - 14th Nov 18
Understanding the Benefits of Keeping a Trading Journal - 14th Nov 18
S&P 500 Below 2,800 Again, New Downtrend or Just Correction? - 13th Nov 18
Warning: Precious Metals’ Gold and Silver Prices are about to Collapse! - 13th Nov 18
Why the End of the Longest Crude Oil Bull Market Since 2008? - 13th Nov 18
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally Reaches .618 Retracement - 13th Nov 18
How to Create the Best Website Content and Generate Organic Traffic - 13th Nov 18
Why the Stock Market Will Pullback, Rally, and Roll Into a Bear Market - 13th Nov 18
Stock Markets Around the World are Crashing. What Not to Worry About? - 12th Nov 18
Cyclical Commodities Continue to Weaken, Gold Moves in Relation - 12th Nov 18
Olympus Tough TG-5 Camera Stuck or Dead Pixels, Rubbish Video Auto Focus - 12th Nov 18
5 Things That Precede Gold Price Major Bottoms - 12th Nov 18
Big US Stocks Q3 Fundamentals - 12th Nov 18
How "Free Money" Helped Create Sizzling Housing Market & REIT Gains - 12th Nov 18
One Direction More Likely for Bitcoin Price - 12th Nov 18
The Place of HSE Software in Today's Business - 12th Nov 18
Gold Asks: Are US Bonds Overvalued? - 11th Nov 18
Why the Stock Market Will Pullback Before Heading Higher - 11th Nov 18
GDX - Will you Buy This Hated Stock with Me? - 11th Nov 18
Christmas and Halloween LED Dynamic Projector Light Review - 11th Nov 18
Wall Street Veteran: Why I Don’t Lend to Family and Friends - 10th Nov 18
Stocks Breaking Higher, but Resistance Ahead - 10th Nov 18
Stock Market Was Supposed to “Crash Like 1987” - 10th Nov 18
SPX : The Incredibull Stock Market Plays On - 9th Nov 18
USD/CAD – The Moment of Truth Is Coming - 9th Nov 18
Is the Stock Market’s Rally “All Good To Go”? - 8th Nov 18
End in Sight for 'Unloved' Silver - 8th Nov 18
Outlook for Gold & Silver Precious Metals Sector is 'Positive' - 8th Nov 18
A Great Day for Metals as Platinum Price Breaks Out - 8th Nov 18
Future US Interest Rates, Financial Markets, and the FED - 8th Nov 18
Buying an Approved Used Land Rover From a Dealer - What You Need to Know! - 8th Nov 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Free Online Trading Session

Don't Let 'The Glidepath Illusion' Ruin Your Retirement

Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement Aug 29, 2015 - 07:41 AM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Personal_Finance

Dan Ferris writes: The traditional notion of retirement says you should take bigger risks in the stock market when you're young.

You have more time to make up for losses than when you're older. As you age, you should take less and less risk, so you won't lose your retirement money... so the conventional wisdom goes.


This well-worn strategy is called "Glidepath investing." And it could ruin your retirement.

Let me explain...

The emotional appeal of Glidepath investing is obvious. Young people feel like they're going to live forever, so it feels better to them to take more risks. Buying more risky stocks and fewer safe bonds feels right.

Older people feel they have more to lose and might not be able to support themselves one day, so they tend to be more risk averse. For them, buying fewer stocks and more bonds feels safer.

There's an army of financial planners and other "helpers" out there selling products designed to get you to retirement with a big, safe nest egg, based on this feel-good notion.

However, research suggests that what feels good isn't necessarily what you should do...

Investor and researcher Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates published a report in September 2012 called, "The Glidepath Illusion." Arnott's research suggests Glidepath investing will make you less money by leading you to put less money in higher-return investments (stocks).

Arnott studied 141 years of stock and bond returns from 1871 to 2011. From these data, he hypothesized a range of possible outcomes. In general, Arnott found evidence that the range of outcomes from doing the opposite of Glidepath investing was superior to the range of Glidepath-based outcomes.

It's well documented that stocks outperform bonds over the long term. Glidepath investors wind up putting a bigger percentage of their assets in stocks when they're younger and have less to invest. They put a higher percentage into bonds when they're older and have more to invest.

That's the basic error. Investors put fewer dollars into higher-return investments, then interrupt the compounding process to put more dollars into lower-return investments. So they make lower returns than if they had done the opposite of Glidepath investing.

Glidepath investing is a good recipe for feeling good, but a poor one for making as much money as possible in stocks and bonds. Arnott's conclusion is worth quoting and keeping close at hand as a reminder...

Investors who are prepared to save aggressively, spend cautiously, and work a few years longer (because we're living longer), will be fine. Those who do not follow this course are likely to suffer grievous disappointment... No strategy can make up for inadequate savings or premature retirement.

Save aggressively. Spend cautiously. Let your investments compound as long as possible before drawing them down. That's sound advice.

Sadly, it makes perfect sense that the financial services industry is once again doing exactly the wrong thing for clients. Don't trust financial planners and brokers. They're commissioned salespeople. They're incentivized to sell investments, NOT to make you money in stocks and bonds.

For as long as my health holds out, I'll stay productive and hopefully get well compensated for my efforts, saving aggressively and spending cautiously. I recommend you at least give the traditional notion of retirement a second thought and consider an alternative that'll leave you better off emotionally and financially.

Good investing,

Dan Ferris

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2013 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules