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Elliott Wave Trading

Gold And Silver – A Reality Check

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Oct 03, 2015 - 09:23 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

There are two things about which everyone need be clear: 1. The lack of clarity of the identity of the global elites, AKA Rothschilds and their ilk, who control the world’s money supply along with every government, and 2. The demise of the fiat “dollar” and failed fiat Euro are not accidental. Everything, everything is planned decades, or more, in advance by the global elitSes. They control and use upper echelon characters, like Soros, Kissinger, et al, and their primary membership organizations like Council On Foreign Relations and United Nations, among others.


This does not mean all the details are determined on a micro level, but the general direction in which the globalists want to move the world is not happenstance. Never forget their modus operandi: Problem, Reaction, Solution. They create their desired Problem, watch the public’s Reaction, and then swoop in with their intended Solution to solve the Problem few guess was started purposefully. The Solution almost always moves the elites closer to their New World Order agenda and always entails a loss of freedom for people.

The Middle East has been under relentless attack for a few decades, growing into a disintegrating crescendo. Lebanon, Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and now Syria, still under attack by the US-created ISIS, Iran isolated and monetarily sanctioned, ostensibly threatened over their non-existent nuclear threat, another US false flag.

Nowhere in the elite’s bought-and-paid-for mainstream news media will you hear about Iran using nuclear energy to supply their electricity needs throughout the nation. Nowhere will you hear that Iran has no means of delivering any nuclear attack, which is not being planned anyway. Nowhere will you hear that the isolation and sanctions are US payback for selling oil and not using the US fiat “dollar.” which is the real and only reason Iran is being demonized as a nuclear threat.

The primary catalyst behind the destabilization and destruction of these countries in the Middle East has been the corporate federal US government, [separate and distinct from citizens living in America and not a party to the federal government]. The federal US has the largest military budget in the world, along with an independent CIA operating as the not always covert “enforcer” for the globalist agenda of destroying democracy and replacing it with a fascist model: Patriot Act, National Defense Authorization Act, creating agencies outside of the [now useless] constitution, responsible to no one but fully directed by elite controlled forces to impose authority over a compliant and ignorant public: TSA, [Transportation Safety Administration], FEMA, [Federal Emergency Management Administration], Homeland Security…the reference to “Homeland” is the de facto federal government and not America as a sovereign nation along with all of its non-government inhabitants, the people.

How are the heads of these non-elected agencies referenced by the president? As czars. Yes, the US has a long history, dating from the Revolutionary War, of calling its leaders czars. So non-American.

Langley and the CIA have been the controlling forces of destruction around the globe. With military bases in over 200 countries, [Why?!], the US is ever-present as a constant threat. It is no accident that the CIA trained and financed ISIS, Al Qaeda, among others, used to foment destabilization throughout the Middle East, most recently as a covert way to get rid of Syria’s Assad. The US has no right to interfere with another sovereign nation and determine who should run the country, a decision that rests with the Syrian people.

Ironic that the “evil enemy” nation, Russia, has probably inflicted more damage against the ISIS terrorists this past week than the US has in over the past year. The US has no interest in ridding Syria of ISIS, having created that group in the fist place. The US is merely containing ISIS as a means of getting rid of Syrian president Assad. Putin has called Obama’s bluff by inviting the US to participate in a coordinated effort to eradicate the terrorists. Now Russia is being accused of destabilizing Syria by the very factors that have been destabilizing that nation, like Saudi Arabia, in addition to the US.

The elite’s bought and paid for world news media immediately posted “news” that Russia
had bombed and killed civilians in the attack against the terrorists. The problem with that “news” story was the Russian planes had not yet left the ground. Contrast the accusations, falsely made against a country the US opposes in as many ways as possible, with what the
US does:

The US admitted its air force bombed and Afghan hospital, run by Doctors Without Borders, killing at least 9 people and wounding 37. One of the doctors had tweeted that the US had been given the exact location of the hospital to avoid being attacked. This was
just after the US ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, who “tweeted” her US foreign
policy position to inform Russia “to immediately cease attacks on Syrian opposition and civilians.”

Obviously, when the US kills foreign innocents in a country in which the US does not belong, it is okay. If Russia or any other country does it, and Russia did not, then the US openly complains of the offending resulting acts against civilians only the US can kill with impunity. Now, plus Saudi Arabia in Yemen. Israel has always had a free pass in Palestine.

There are so many things wrong with the elite-controlled US government found in the above paragraphs that proves the hypocrisy and arrogance of the US, considered as the world’s biggest terrorist by almost every country, except by most of those living in the US.

Once again, Putin put Obama between a rock and a hard place to legitimately fight ISIS, and Obama does not know how to extract himself from his untenable official position of opposing ISIS but doing nothing to get rid of the very group he is using to get rid of Assad.
Instead of joining in a coordinated attack, he uses his puppet UN ambassador to tweet his “support” of how ISIS should be “handled.”

This move by Putin has huge implications for the balance of power shifting to Russia in
that region, and the US being marginalized, although people in American would never know otherwise, because the news media would never report it.

We could go on and on. How about the sudden “immigration” of Middle Easterners converging on Europe? How did all of these displaced refugees get the means of making their way from war-torn countries, [thank you US] to get to Europe? Problem, Reaction, Solution. The globalists never sleep.

Make a mess and help destroy Europe as the end-game of shifting their power from West to East inexorably goes on. Create another problem for Europe, and it is well-known how Europeans are Reacting to the Problem. When it gets bad enough, the globalists will offer their Solution and gain yet more control in their New World Order agenda.

What is the point? Like our article, Ufa. Why It Matters But Does Not, there is no direct link to precious metals, but the suppression of gold and silver by the globalist’s central banks are another example of how much power and influence is being exerted to preserve the fiat US Federal Reserve “dollar,” which is nothing more than a debt instrument, and debt cannot be money.

Where is the effective opposition to the globalists? There is none. They control the world, to include China, to a limited degree, and even Russia, in a way no one can really determine, but Putin, with all of his Western opposition and fighting the Western bankers to the teeth, still wants to be a part of the UN, IMF, and other globalist-controlled organizations used as their tools for world dominance.

Despite all the talk and coverage of massive gold buying from China and Russia, the never-ending coverage of critical shortages of gold and especially silver, there is absolutely no correlation between the natural forces of Supply and Demand v the unnatural forces of globalist suppression, and the latter continues to prevail. If you want realistic answers as to why gold and silver have not rallied to reflect the huge demand for their limited supply, look no further than the ongoing events unfolding around the world as diversions to keep the elite’s theft-of-the-world’s-wealth-by-fiat under control. That is reality in a nut shell.

As we look to the charts, they continue to support suppression prevailing over-supply and demand.

The average person uses daily and intra day charts to assess what is going on. This is somewhat akin to “looking at the trees instead of the forest.” The larger time frames are the equivalent of the forest for they depict a truer picture, and smart money references them without regard to the lower time frames used by most everyone else.

The Quarterly chart, on the left within the monthly chart provided, shows that recent support was broken. Price is now at its lowest level in five years. Ask yourself a simple question. Does this look like a market responding to unprecedented lack of supply and unprecedented demand? One need not be proficient in reading charts, but logic can certainly be put to use in drawing a conclusion in what is presented in them.

The best that can be said about the Quarterly is that the location of the close, mid-range the bar, says buyers are present, otherwise, the close would have been lower. However, each bar represents three months of activity, so it takes a much longer time and effort to effect change on this time frame. Any change, as it develops, will show up on the lower time frames, first.

The monthly chart is in sync with the Quarterly by noting where price is within the down channel. Price is nearer the bottom of the channel, relatively far away from challenging the top of the channel. The conclusion to be drawn is gold remains in a weak position with no ability to even challenge the down trend scenario, let alone mount a meaningful rally.

Change remains slow in coming, and it would be more than difficult for the most ardent bull in gold to argue otherwise, as many have ineffectively done over the last 5 years.

Price is more advantageously positioned on this smaller weekly time frame, being closer to challenging the down trend channel resistance line. Even at that, note that price is also
well below a 50% retracement of the last swing high to swing low. While not an absolute guide, whenever price cannot retrace back to half-way of the last move, it indicates overall weakness is still in effect.

We often mention how the market is the best and most reliable source of information.
You can readily see that the message is not positive and shows no immediate sign for any meaningful change. The last three bars have strong closes, on the upper end of the range, yet, what has been their net effect? The down channel remains intact. Again, the message from the market says more work needs to be done, and that will take more time. Time works in favor of the central bankers, doing everything possible to disappoint those who are long gold and silver.

They are winning the battle, to which the charts and we admit. The outcome of the war, however, is not on the side of the globalists, or so it seems. There remains the possibility that the globalists will not be able to stop a turnaround in the price for PMs, but they may be able to control the rally and prevent the pie-in-the-sky prices, $10,000 the ounce gold, and $400 the ounce silver, from being realized.

This is not a defeatist attitude toward owning physical gold and silver, always recommended and endorsed on this site, but it is a nod to recognizing that which is, and one has to always consider all sides of a situation. Supply and demand factors are not what is driving the PMs market. To ignore the reality of the situation plays into the hands of the elites who want to discredit the ownership of gold and silver as much as possible.

If one’s assessment starts with a daily chart, the strong rally of last Friday would be heartening. When placed in context of the more controlling higher time frames, such an assessment would be misplaced, and it is why we always start with higher time frames in our analysis and work toward the lower, less controlling time frames.

The strong rally on Friday notwithstanding, even the daily chart does not indicate a breakthrough to the upside as a reward for all the effort. Gold needs to continue its rally and close above current resistance with wide range bars to the upside on strong volume in support and then exhibit small range correction bars on decreased volume to demonstrate that selling is drying up. Until that happens, expect more of the same.

The decline in silver is even more pronounced than in gold, and the gold-to-silver ratio reflects this reality. Where gold showed evidence of buyers by the location of the close, silver shows evidence of buyers being present by the smaller range of the bar. If sellers had more control, the range would have extended lower. Here, buyers are meeting efforts of sellers to prevent more of a decline.

A few more comments are in order to keep these observations in context. When we say there are buyers present, it means just that. It does not imply an imminent change in trend, for to effect a change takes more effort and results that are taking place, at this time. Always remember, in a down trend, sellers are a proven factor. The burden for change remains with buyers, and to date, that burden is not being met. The presence of buyers can lead to a change, but more is needed to effect change than mere presence.

Again, look at where price is, relative to the entire chart, and the question of change to the upside remains a nonissue, regardless of sentiment.

As with gold, the rallies of the past three weeks have closed strongly, at the upper range of the bar, but it begs the question, to what effect? The closes are clustered and the bars overlap. The clustering of closes demonstrates price has stalled. If buyers are absorbing the efforts of sellers, price will rally. If sellers are absorbing the efforts of buyers, price will resume its trading range influence.

The overlapping of bars indicates balance between sellers and buyers, and that will soon lead to imbalance created by this tension of opposing forces. As has already been expressed, sellers are a proven factor in a down trend, so the onus is on buyers to effect a change. The outcome of the current tension between the two forces will provide a clue as to the immediate next direction for price movement.

What could that outcome be? Even with what “appears” to have been strength, the rally on Friday may fizzle out this coming week, taking into consideration all of the factors presented, so far. You can see how the rally did not threaten a potential breakout of the current TR [Trading Range]. Price is well below the TR high and even further below a half-way retracement of the last swing high to low, covered in gold as to explanation.

Where will price go, either to the upside or downside, near term and far? We never make “predictions.” If we had, over the past 5 years, they would all have been wrong. This is why we say to follow the market’s direction. Never try to lead it.

A reality check of the market, as viewed from the market’s own information, provided in chart form, strongly suggests change to the upside is not in the cards. Anything else you believe or “feel” [as in opinion], is contrary to existing reality. We favor reality. It hardly ever fails.

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2015 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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