Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20
AMAZON Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 11th Jan 20
Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points - 11th Jan 20
Land Rover Discovery Sport 2020 - What You Need to Know Before Buying - 11th Jan 20
Gold Buying Precarious - 11th Jan 20
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity - 11th Jan 20
Gold Gann Angle Update - 10th Jan 20
Gold In Rally Mode Suggests Commitment of Traders (COT) Data - 10th Jan 20
Disney Could Mount Its Biggest Rally in 2020 - 10th Jan 20
How on Earth Can Gold Decline During the U.S. – Iran Crisis? - 10th Jan 20
Getting Your HR Budget in Line - 10th Jan 20
The Fed Protects Gamblers at the Expense of the Economy - 9th Jan 20
Last Chance to Get Microsoft Windows 10 for FREE! - 9th Jan 20
The Stock Market is the Opiate of the Masses - 9th Jan 20
Is The Energy Sector Setting Up Another Great Entry? - 9th Jan 20
The Fed Is Creating a Monster Bubble - 9th Jan 20
If History Repeats, Video Game Stocks Could Soar 600%+ - 9th Jan 20
What to Know Before Buying a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 8th Jan 20
Stock Market Forecast 2020 Trend Analysis - 8th Jan 20
Gold Price at Resistance - 8th Jan 20
The Fed Has Quietly Started QE4 - 8th Jan 20
NASDAQ Set to Fall 1000pts Early 2020, and What it Means for Gold Price - 8th Jan 20
Gold 2020 - Financial Analysts and Major Financial Institutions Outlook - 8th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Review - 8th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

US House Prices Forecast 2008-2010

Housing-Market / US Housing Jun 29, 2008 - 12:29 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUS House prices continued to plunge for April 08 data, reaching an extreme low reading of down 16.3% on a year earlier as measured by the S&P/ Case-Shiller Composite-10 and down more than 19% from the mid 2006 peak. The rate of decline is the worst since the Great Depression and signals further distress in the real estate linked credit markets and therefore a continuing drag on the US economy in the face of the continuing deleveraging of the mortgage backed derivatives markets.


The housing market trend suggests that the annualised rate of house price falls could bottom at minus-18% for the July S&P/Case-Shiller house price data, therefore suggesting a continuation of the weakening trend in US house prices for the next 3 months (May,June,July data), after which the pace at which US house prices are declining 'should' improve as the current momentum is unsustainable beyond July 2008 due to sharp declines from a year earlier factoring into the annualised house price figures.

US House Prices Forecast 2008 to 2010

By the end of 2008, the annual rate of house price falls should slow to about 13%. Whilst it is not possible to forecast a bottom in the US housing market at this stage of the bear market, it is possible to come to the conclusion that most of the decline in nominal house prices is now behind us on the basis of analysis of the continuing decline in real-term house prices which suggests that a stabilising US housing market during late 2009 and 2010 will mask the continuing real terms inflation adjusted fall in the housing market valuations for several more years that will in effect have the impact of eroding all of the gains since the 1989 peak and reducing the gain from the 1994 low from 131% to just 40% by the end of 2010 as the below graph illustrates.

US Real House Prices Forecast 2008 - 2010

When to Buy? - The time to start contemplating buying real estate again will be after the US housing market has made a nominal bottom in house prices and at the time US house prices start to increase in real-terms as the BUY / SELL signals above illustrate. As per this analysis there is no sign of a BUY trigger occurring within the next 2 1/2 years.

Presidential Election - It is unlikely that there will be a significant turnaround in the annualised pace of house price declines by the November 08 election (September data) and therefore the falling housing market will continue to be a major negative factor for the Republican candidate despite the hundreds of billions being thrown at the housing market in an attempt at trying to put a floor under the housing market by reducing the number of foreclosures amongst adjustable rate mortgage holders resetting to higher interest rates.

US House Prices Forecast Summary - Nominal US House Prices are forecast to fall by 30% from the Mid 2006 peak by the end of 2010, or a further 11% on the decline of 19% to date. US house prices will continue falling in real-terms even if a low in nominal house prices is made by mid 2010.

For views on the UK housing market see the most recent article UK Housing Bear Market Threatening Economic Deflation

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Ken Anderson
02 Jul 08, 10:03
Excellent Analysis - However use + or - 1 to 2 year standard deviation

Hi All

Having invested in the real estate market for several years,

Nadeem is provinding excellent analysis that can provide a "blueprint" for investing going forward.

That being said there is a need for a plus or minus 1 to 2 year standard deviation because of the local nature of markets.

This concerns mainly major markets.

Thanks, Ken


Swarna raghuvir
11 Dec 08, 07:59
seeling house in 2009 or 2010

I am wondering if we should list our house in april/May of 2009 or list in March/april of 2010. we want to downsize.We live in fairfield county, CT.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules