Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ - 28th Nov 23
Stocks and Silver Have Something to Say about Gold - 28th Nov 23
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? - 28th Nov 23
Taiwan 2024 Election: Militarization or Development - 28th Nov 23
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it - 28th Nov 23
Cameco Uranium Stock Hits All-Time High - 28th Nov 23
TSLA, LRCX, TSMC Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 23
A Golden Setup: Gold Price Trend Forecast Report - 26th Nov 23
Gold Stocks Winter Seasonal Rally - 26th Nov 23
Elections in South America and Europe Reveal Backlash against Socialism - 26th Nov 23
LMT, JNJ and ASML Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis - 23rd Nov 23
When AI Hallucinates - Top AI Tech Stocks - 23rd Nov 23
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed - 23rd Nov 23
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 - 22nd Nov 23
Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical - 22nd Nov 23
Learn to Use the FORCE! - How to Really Get Rich - 21st Nov 23
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts - 18th Nov 23
Biden Bizarrely Brags About Lower Budget Deficits as US Federal Debt Skyrockets - 18th Nov 23
Silver Price Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 18th Nov 23
The Most Important Chat GPT Tech Reveal of 2023 - 18th Nov 23
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio - 9th Nov 23
Micron MU Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
TSMC Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
NVIDIA Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
The “new ChatGPT” just launched - 9th Nov 23

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

US House Prices Forecast 2008-2010

Housing-Market / US Housing Jun 29, 2008 - 12:29 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUS House prices continued to plunge for April 08 data, reaching an extreme low reading of down 16.3% on a year earlier as measured by the S&P/ Case-Shiller Composite-10 and down more than 19% from the mid 2006 peak. The rate of decline is the worst since the Great Depression and signals further distress in the real estate linked credit markets and therefore a continuing drag on the US economy in the face of the continuing deleveraging of the mortgage backed derivatives markets.


The housing market trend suggests that the annualised rate of house price falls could bottom at minus-18% for the July S&P/Case-Shiller house price data, therefore suggesting a continuation of the weakening trend in US house prices for the next 3 months (May,June,July data), after which the pace at which US house prices are declining 'should' improve as the current momentum is unsustainable beyond July 2008 due to sharp declines from a year earlier factoring into the annualised house price figures.

US House Prices Forecast 2008 to 2010

By the end of 2008, the annual rate of house price falls should slow to about 13%. Whilst it is not possible to forecast a bottom in the US housing market at this stage of the bear market, it is possible to come to the conclusion that most of the decline in nominal house prices is now behind us on the basis of analysis of the continuing decline in real-term house prices which suggests that a stabilising US housing market during late 2009 and 2010 will mask the continuing real terms inflation adjusted fall in the housing market valuations for several more years that will in effect have the impact of eroding all of the gains since the 1989 peak and reducing the gain from the 1994 low from 131% to just 40% by the end of 2010 as the below graph illustrates.

US Real House Prices Forecast 2008 - 2010

When to Buy? - The time to start contemplating buying real estate again will be after the US housing market has made a nominal bottom in house prices and at the time US house prices start to increase in real-terms as the BUY / SELL signals above illustrate. As per this analysis there is no sign of a BUY trigger occurring within the next 2 1/2 years.

Presidential Election - It is unlikely that there will be a significant turnaround in the annualised pace of house price declines by the November 08 election (September data) and therefore the falling housing market will continue to be a major negative factor for the Republican candidate despite the hundreds of billions being thrown at the housing market in an attempt at trying to put a floor under the housing market by reducing the number of foreclosures amongst adjustable rate mortgage holders resetting to higher interest rates.

US House Prices Forecast Summary - Nominal US House Prices are forecast to fall by 30% from the Mid 2006 peak by the end of 2010, or a further 11% on the decline of 19% to date. US house prices will continue falling in real-terms even if a low in nominal house prices is made by mid 2010.

For views on the UK housing market see the most recent article UK Housing Bear Market Threatening Economic Deflation

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Attention Editors and Publishers! - You have permission to republish THIS article. Republished articles must include attribution to the author and links back to the http://www.marketoracle.co.uk . Please send an email to republish@marketoracle.co.uk, to include a link to the published article.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Ken Anderson
02 Jul 08, 10:03
Excellent Analysis - However use + or - 1 to 2 year standard deviation

Hi All

Having invested in the real estate market for several years,

Nadeem is provinding excellent analysis that can provide a "blueprint" for investing going forward.

That being said there is a need for a plus or minus 1 to 2 year standard deviation because of the local nature of markets.

This concerns mainly major markets.

Thanks, Ken


Swarna raghuvir
11 Dec 08, 07:59
seeling house in 2009 or 2010

I am wondering if we should list our house in april/May of 2009 or list in March/april of 2010. we want to downsize.We live in fairfield county, CT.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in