Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Gold And Silver - Physical Precious Metals Are A 'Gift' At Current Levels

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Dec 19, 2015 - 06:24 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

It really matters little what the charts are saying about the paper futures for gold and silver here, which we will get to shortly. The focus needs to be kept on a few facts that are inescapably true: fiat currencies throughout the history on this planet have always, always failed, without exception, 100% of the time. There are few situations for which such a statement of guaranteed [failed] performance can be made.

It is any different this time? Yes and no. No, because all fiats have failed, plain and simple. Yes, because the extent to which there is no reasonable reality in the relationship between paper and physical has never occurred to the current degree, ever.


In times past, gold and silver were used as a form of money somewhere in different parts of the world, but not today. The Rothschild system of controlling the supply of "money" has been honed to [im]perfection where the world is dominated by the moneychangers, the entire world. It is fiat, fiat, fiat. No country trades using gold or silver as true money. The moneychangers, the globalists have driven gold and silver out of everyday existence, physically, to a large degree, psychologically to an even greater degree.

In 2013, those calling for a change in the price direction for gold and silver for that year or at least into 2014, were proven wrong. If not by 2014, then surely big changes would occur in 2015. These expectations were being made by some of the smartest and most respected individuals in the PMs community.

Surely the reality of shrinking supply and unabated demand would prevail over the specter of unimaginable fiat production and phony central banker QE-to-infinity measures would mark 2015 for much-needed change in the failing world-wide financial system predicated on the privately controlled and managed Federal Reserve Note, commonly and mistakenly called the "dollar." One can legitimately question if any change will occur in 2016, at this rate.

The two things guaranteed in life have been death and taxes. We add a third, the guaranteed failure of paper fiat. When! When! When will the current fiat fail? There is no known answer for that.

When will your life end? There is also no known answer for that, either, other than the guarantee that it will. Knowing you will one day die, does it stop you from living each day, each year as though life will continue? It seems most people live their life that way. While tomorrow is promised to no one, few expect that promise to arrive today or tomorrow, although it happens regularly throughout the world as people die every day. Many make plans for their eventual death, in a variety of ways, family planning, estate planning, etc, but the hope is almost always that life will be extended for as long as possible.

This is the best analogy we can give for when the current fiat will fail, and it seems to be an apt one, just in reverse. People want to see the death of the "dollar," indeed all fiats, in favor of returning to some kind of gold standard. When that happens, those who have been buying and holding gold and silver over the years will see an increase in their wealth holdings.

You know death is inevitable, but you endeavor to live life to the fullest as best you can. In the same vein, you know fiats fail, but not knowing when is less acceptable in that realm of the inevitable than not knowing when death will inevitably occur in life. Still, one must plan for the purchase of physical gold and silver regardless of when the fiat will fail, as it will, and the current extraordinary circumstance, where the reality of supply and demand ceases to function, makes the ongoing purchase and holding of PMs more important than ever.

It is possible gold can still decline to 1,000 to 865, and silver to 12.50 to 11.70. The probability remains greater than not, but a decline to those levels is no more a guaranty than death or taxes. When the value of PMs do turn around and attain higher prices, more reflective of reality in the "unreal" world of fiat in which we live, having paid $1,800/oz, $1,200/oz, or $900/oz for gold, $50/oz, $35/oz, or $10 oz for silver will not be of much consequence if the pricing for gold and silver should reach 5 or tenfold multiples, or more, from current levels.

Those who already own gold and silver will stop complaining at those higher price levels. That means anyone purchasing the metals at current prices, even if price continues lower over the next year, will be owning one of the world's most reliable wealth assets at extraordinary prices. Remember, price is a captive symptom of a highly irregular cause that is destined to fail. Count on it.

There has been talk of a $20 handle for crude oil, and it is more than within the realm of probability. If that turns out to develop, that weak rallies to the 50-60 area can be sold.

Crude Oil WTI Weekly Chart

There is no visible strength in gold, currently. The reaction rally off the October swing low has been very weak, easily holding under the 1,100 level. The fact that price has moved sideways for the past 6 weeks and has not been able to decline to the lower portion of the channel suggests a reaction rally could develop, but it would be normal activity within an established trend to the downside.

Gold Weekly Chart

While there can be an argument made for some kind of reaction rally to the upside, it is of less important than knowing that gold has not made a showing of a possible bottom, even while it is possible one could be forming. It is not unusual for a bottom to take several weeks, sometimes a month or longer, to confirm itself, so patience is required to let the market do what is will do, regardless of personal sentiment or expectation.

Daily Gold Chart

The chart comments contrast strong bullish fundamentals with the more reliable reality of price, price being the final arbiter. One has to understand that the market is fully aware of all bullish supply/demand considerations, yet despite the overwhelmingly bullish read of the fundamental picture, price says otherwise, and ultimately, one can never argue with price.

Simply stated, the down trend has not yet run its course, at least in the paper market, which is what the charts reflect.

Weekly Silver Chart

Given how trends serve as important information, and one should never position against one, there appears to be little need to be long in the paper market until there is more concrete evidence of a market turn.

Daily Silver Chart

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2015 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules