Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000! - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Future Price Of Gold Will Drop Below $1000 In 2017 -InvestingHaven
3.May Never Get Another Opportunity to Buy Gold at this Level Again - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Delirium - The Real Reason Why Donald Trump Won the US Presidential Election - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasting Indicator? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold Price Forecast: Nasty Naughty November Gold Price Trend - I_M_Vronsky
7.Gold Mining Stocks Screaming Buy! Q3’16 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
8.Delirium of Trump Mania Win's Mr BrExit US Presidential Election 2016 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The War On Cash Goes Nuclear In India, Australia and Across The World - Jeff_Berwick
10.Hidden Signs for Gold and Silver - P_Radomski_CFA
Last 7 days
Gold, Currencies and Markets Critical 61.8% Retracements - 2nd Dec 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q3’16 Fundamentals - 2nd Dec 16
Adventures in Castro’s Cuba - 2nd Dec 16
We Are Putting Off the Inevitable - 2nd Dec 16
Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics - A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst - 2nd Dec 16
How Moving Averages Can Identify a Trade - 1st Dec 16
Silver Prices and Interest Rates - 1st Dec 16
America, is it Finally time for us to say Goodbye? - 1st Dec 16
Blockchain Technology – What Is It and How Will It Change Your Life? - 1st Dec 16
Burn the Flags, Can Trump Salvage The Sinking US Economic Ship? - 1st Dec 16
Will US Housing Real Estate Market Tank in 2017? - 1st Dec 16
Referendum Puts Italy's Government to the Test - 30th Nov 16
Why We Haven’t Seen Gold Price Rally after Trump Victory - 30th Nov 16
Breakdown and Slide in Crude Oil Price - 30th Nov 16
A 'Wicked Rally' in Gold Price Predicted - 30th Nov 16
Silver Market Sentiment Looks Golden - 30th Nov 16
Indian Demonetization Denotes Severe Stress in the Global Gold Market - 30th Nov 16
Owning Gold and Silver in Troubling Times - 29th Nov 16
Trump's Presidency - Stock Market Crash or Start of New Mega-Trends - 29th Nov 16
Prime Minister Modi's War Against Corruption, Black Money and Fake Currency Notes in India - 29th Nov 16
Can President Trump Really Drain the Swamp? - 29th Nov 16
President Trump’s Economic Plan Isn’t Going to Work - 29th Nov 16
The US Bond Bear Market Has Begun! - 29th Nov 16
Simple Yet Powerful Technical Trading Tools - 28th Nov 16
Public Infrastructure – Welcome to the World of Waste, Fraud, and Abuse - 28th Nov 16
Fifty Years Later, Moore's Computing Law Holds - 28th Nov 16
An Elusive Stock Market Top - 28th Nov 16
This Past Week in Gold - 27th Nov 16
Italian Bank Collapse European Sovereign Bond Carnage, Criss-Crossed Fuses & Lit Bonfire - 27th Nov 16
How to Beat UK Savings Crisis with Child Junior Cash ISA, Pension's and Life-time ISA - 27th Nov 16
Castro Was Not Who You Thought He Was - 27th Nov 16
Understanding the Trump Presidency , Beyond Merkel - 26th Nov 16
US Stocks Bull Market New All Time Highs - 26th Nov 16
Silver Mining Stocks Q3 2016 Fundamentals - 26th Nov 16
MSM's Stock Market Druck'n Suck-In Continues - 26th Nov 16
Gold Price Down 13.5% In 13 Days - Opportunity For Geometric Price Cost Averaging - 26th Nov 16
Tips for Trading Options with Elliott Waves - 26th Nov 16
Germany Pulls the Plug on Market Oracle site for 24 hours, German Election BrExit GerExit Warning Shot? - 26th Nov 16
New NS&I 2.2% Savings Bond Ahead of 2017 Stealth Inflation Theft of Purchasing Power - 24th Nov 16
Establishment Controlled Mainstream Media Launches War on Alternative 'Fake' News - 24th Nov 16
Black Friday Cheap Christmas Lights, How Long do they Last ? B&M Stores Review Video - 24th Nov 16
War On Cash Goes Global – India and Citibank In Australia - 24th Nov 16
Stocks, the Politically-Driven S.O.D. to Lose Again - 24th Nov 16
One of the best buying opportunities in history? - 24th Nov 16
Gold and Monetary Populism: The Oligarchs’ Mortal Enemies – The Peoples’ Salvation - 23rd Nov 16
The Winners and Losers of a Global Trade War - 23rd Nov 16
Why Mexico’s Oil Reform Is A Huge Opportunity For Investors - 23rd Nov 16
Silver and Gold - We Can’t Understand It for Them - 23rd Nov 16
A Review of Nedbank Private Wealth - 23rd Nov 16
Trump’s Financial Revolution! - 22nd Nov 16
Stock Market New All Tiime Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story - 22nd Nov 16
Will Crude Oil Price Rally to $50? - 22nd Nov 16
The Spreading Bondfire And The Rising Price Of Gold - 22nd Nov 16
Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next US Recession? - 22nd Nov 16
Cheap Money to Continue Flowing & Helicopter Money to Start after 2017 Market Crash - 22nd Nov 16
Gold Price Forecast: Nasty Naughty November Gold Price Trend - 22nd Nov 16
Stocks and Deby - Will Trump Bring Morning or Mourning in America? - 22nd Nov 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$10000 Gold

Another China Yuan 2% Devaluation Coming Up? Explaining Chinese Capital Flight

Currencies / China Currency Yuan Jan 07, 2016 - 10:17 AM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Currencies

Another Yuan Devaluation Coming Up?

Currency trends suggest another yuan devaluation is coming up. Specifically, the gap between the mainland China yuan (renminbi) to the US dollar, vs. the offshore floating rate of the yuan to the US dollar is now at a record high.

The reason there are two rates is China has tight controls on the range the yuan trades in China, but the yuan floats outside China.


In contrast to previous years where traders bet the value of the yuan would rise vs. the US dollar, traders are increasingly betting China will devalue.

Explaining Chinese Capital Flight

If China had no capital controls, the onshore and offshore rates would have to be identical otherwise there would be an instant guaranteed free money arbitrage opportunity in virtually unlimited size were China to maintain a peg the market did not agree with.

Here are a couple of charts that show what I mean.

Onshore Yuan

USD/CNY Daily Chart


Offshore Yuan

USD/CNH Daily Chart

Onshore / Offshore Rate Differentials

  • The onshore rate is 6.5567 per US dollar.
  • The offshore rate is 6.6993 per US dollar.

Another 2% Devaluation?

The onshore yuan is weaker than offshore by 0.1426. That a bit over 2%.

In the absence of capital controls one could make an instantaneous 2% on an unlimited amount of money. That such spreads exist shows that capital controls work, for the most part, at least for now.

However, capital controls are not perfect. Those able to skirt capital controls do so. One possible method of free arbitrage would be export/import trades that do not really take place, or simply padded higher.

Fraud of such nature cannot be unlimited. $1 trillion in sudden exports or imports is going to get caught, but smaller amounts can be hidden.

In addition, those sitting with a lot of money in a depreciating currency don't exactly like that outcome. Thus capital flight pressure is intense for two reasons.

One way or another (slowly over time, or by another 2% devaluation), the yuan appears destined to sink. When will it stop?

The Risk

The risk, as always is that things get out of hand. Repetitive devaluations could trigger a rash of competitive currency devaluations with Japan or the US entering the picture.

Meanwhile, devaluations will certainly trigger the ire of US Congress that views the trade imbalance with China as proof the yuan is undervalued. Donald Trump has stirred up that exact sentiment,

For further discussion, please see:

Currency Crisis Coming Up

When does pressure on the yuan cease? The answer may very well be "as soon as China floats the yuan and takes off capital controls".

I expect a full-blown currency crisis before that day.

On the other hand, if China floated the yuan right now, it could crash now. Take your currency crisis poison one way or another.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2015 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife