Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Dollar Crashes, Gold And Bitcoin Skyrocket As Economic Recovery Lie Is Exposed - Jeff_Berwick
2.Now Obama Warns Americans to ‘Be Prepared’ for Disaster… What Does He Know? - Jeff_Berwick
3.EU Referendum - Britain's Immigration / Migrant Crisis Explained - Nadeem_Walayat
4.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, Vote LEAVE an Act of Defiance! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Prominent Billionaire Investors Warn of Financial Crash, Quietly Position Themselves - MoneyMetals
6.Bankers Warn of BrExit Financial Armageddon if British People Vote for Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bad U.S. Jobs Report Prompts Stocks Bear Market Rally Towards New All Time Highs! - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold And Silver – Friday May Have Marked A Pivotal Turnaround - Michael_Noonan
9.EU Referendum - British People vs Establishment Elite, the Illusion of Democracy and Freedom - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Felix Zulauf: Monetary Stimulation Creates Bubbles, Not Prosperity Nor Growth - GoldandLiberty
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Gold And Silver: Security, And BREXIT - 25th June 16
Dow, Euro & Brexit Recap - 25th June 16
Resistance Holding Gold Stocks after Brexit - 25th June 16
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) - 25th June 16
Gold, Silver And PM Stocks Summer Doldrums Risk - 24th June 16
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown - 24th June 16
Jubilee Jolt: Markets Crash, Gold Skyrockets as Britain Takes Brexit - 24th June 16
BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - 24th June 16
LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - 24th June 16
Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - 24th June 16
EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard - 24th June 16
Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win - 23rd June 16
Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling - 23rd June 16
Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate - 23rd June 16
Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want - 23rd June 16
Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership - 23rd June 16
Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - 23rd June 16
BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN - 22nd June 16
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong - 22nd June 16
Here’s a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity for Those Few with No Debt - 22nd June 16
BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse - 22nd June 16
Increase In U.S. Rig Count Will Not Cap Oil Prices - 22nd June 16
Are Copper and China Stocks Set to Rally? - 22nd June 16
SPX May Break Its Trendline - 22nd June 16
Believe it or Not: More Kids Live At Home Now than Since The Great Depression - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge - 21st June 16
British Pound Outlook - BREXIT, Europe and You - Does your vote matter? - 21st June 16
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union - 21st June 16
EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour - 21st June 16
Is It Time to Dump Gold and Buy Platinum? - 21st June 16
Could Central Bankers Be Gold and Silver's BIGGEST Allies? - 20th June 16
Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl - 20th June 16
Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? - 20th June 16
FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds - 20th June 16
Brexit Would Trigger Devolution of Europe - 20th June 16
Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty - 20th June 16
Will Gold’s Bullish Price Chart Outperform Gold’s 5 Bearish Indicators? - 20th June 16
Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? - 20th June 16
Silver Sleeping On the Job - 19th June 16
BrExit Odds Sink, REMAIN Polls Boost by Jo Cox Killing by Radical Right Extremist, Conspiracy? - 19th June 16
How Elliott Waves Tell You When to "Jump In" & When to "Jump Out" of Markets - 18th June 16
Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation - 18th June 16
Gold And Silver – Insanity Is World “Norm.” Keep Stacking! - 18th June 16
Gold Stocks - Bull Markets that Follow Epic Bears - 18th June 16
The Fed Giveth and the Gold Bullion Banks Taketh Away… - 17th June 16
Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" - 17th June 16
Gold Stocks Summer Breakout? - 17th June 16
Stock Investors Get Higher Returns and More Dividend Income - In Less Time With Less Risk - 17th June 16
How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? - 17th June 16
Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects - 17th June 16
Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat - 17th June 16
Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand - 17th June 16
Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key - 17th June 16
Jo Cox MP Terror Attack Killing Claimed for "Britain First" - Witness Report - 17th June 16
Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? - 16th June 16
EU Referendum Campaigning Suspended Following Shooting of MP Jo Cox, Suspect Named as Tommy Mair - 16th June 16
Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences - 16th June 16
Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? - 16th June 16
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall - 16th June 16
Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks - 16th June 16
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! - 16th June 16
Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone - 16th June 16
Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation - 15th June 16
Alignment Of The Dow, Interest Rates, Debt and Silver Cycles Will Deliver A Fatal Blow - 15th June 16
Stock Market Bounce May be Over - 15th June 16
EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead - 15th June 16
Gold Price Rally - 15th June 16
How to Invest for Brexit Report - 15th June 16
Stock Market Short of the Decade? - 15th June 16
Stock Market Sell Off Coming! - 14th June 16
QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly - 14th June 16
This Demographic Shift Makes Our Social Security Useless - 14th June 16
Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition - 14th June 16
Philosophy of the New World Order - 14th June 16
The Brexit Game - Boris Johnson vs David Cameron EU Referendum Zombies - 14th June 16
EU Referendum: LEAVE Opinion Poll Lead of 51% to 49% Whilst Bookmaker Odds Still Strongly Favour REMAIN - 14th June 16
George Soros Making Big Bets on Gold - 14th June 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Bottom ?..Do they Ring a Bell ?

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016 Jan 18, 2016 - 08:17 AM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

Today I would like to take a look at the PM complex as there are some interesting charts building out. Please don’t confuse this report with what Sir Spock, Sir Norvast and others are doing at the Chartology Forum as they’re looking for undervalued PM stocks that will be ready to buy when the time is right. In some cases the time might be now as a few of the PM stocks are holding support. In the vast majority of the cases though, excluding some of the Australian and a few South African PM stocks, most are still under pressure. So for some folks who like to get in a little early and have the patience to wait for the bear market to exhaust itself, one can start picking up a few shares of their favorite PM stocks and see what happens. There won’t be a bell go off at the bottom I can assure you of that.


This first chart is a combo chart which has Gold, Silver and five different PM stock indexes, big and small caps on it, to help give you a feel for where we stand right now in regards to the bear market that began in 2011. These charts don’t have any patterns on them just a few simple black dashed horizontal support and resistance lines. The vertical dashed line shows the 2008 crash low and how the PM stock indexes are all trading below that important low while gold and silver are trading well above it. The red dashed horizontal line shows the 2008 crash low. Looking at all these chart objectively it’s hard to see any type of bottoming action taking place yet. The very first thing we would need to see is the price action take out the first overhead resistance lines to even consider that a bottom is building out. There is no law that says it can’t start tomorrow but with a few of the PM stock indexes breaking down to new bear market lows there is alot of work to do for this sector to start looking bullish. Keep in mind I’m not talking about the Australian PM stocks or even a few of the South Africa gold mining stocks which are showing a little strength in here, but the general big picture which is still very negative.

A quick look at the $BPGDM shows it’s on a sell signal as the price action is trading below the 5 day ma and the 5 day ma is trading below the 8 day ma.

It has been quite a long time since we last looked at this long term chart for the $CDNX, which is basically a small cap Canadian stock index which is made up of precious metals and other small resource companies. This small cap index had one of the biggest bull runs during the earlier part of the bull market in the PM complex. It was the first to top out in 2007 with a huge, I labeled it whatever you want to call the formation inside the blue box, anything you’d like. I remember at the time the bull market was still going strong and what ended up forming inside the blue rectangle, had several different patterns. The big give away that the pattern would break to the downside was the small red triangle that formed on the right side of the blue top. That red triangle broke down first and then shortly afterwards the big blue trendline gave way. There was no way to know back then the magnitude of the 2008 crash or even that the blue trading range would be the actual bull market high which formed several years before the rest of the PM stock indexes. I think we’re seeing something similar in the stock markets right now with the Russel 2000 and micro caps leading the way down. Small caps, in any sector is where the extra cash will go in a bull market and exit first during a bear market.

There are several H&S consolidation patterns that are forming on some of the PM stock indexes. The $XAU is the leader breaking below its neckline last week. Below is a three year weekly chart which shows the blue eight point Diamond with the H&S consolidation patterns just below it and our most recent H&S consolidation pattern which has a price objective down to the 32.05 area.

The 30 year monthly chart for the $XAU shows it built out a massive 5 point bearish rising wedge and is currently sitting right on the all time low. Note how the two blue consolidation patterns formed one above the bottom rail of the five point rising wedge and one consolidation pattern just below. This usually sets up a bearish scenario which so far is playing out.

It’s been awhile since we last looked at this long term weekly chart for the HUI which shows it’s double rail bear market downtrend channel.

The long term monthly chart for the HUI shows the fanlines it has made since the bear market low in 2000. Normally when the third fanline breaks the pattern is complete.

Sometimes the markets will do something that makes you go WOW. This next chart is a weekly bar chart which shows all the bear market rallies were the same exact height on a percentage basis as shown by the blue arrows on log scale.

Not to be out done by the bulls the HUI bears have created two major legs down that were the same length as shown by the black arrows. If this next impulse move down matches the previous two then the price objective would be down to the 54.45 area. It will be interesting.

The short term weekly chart for the GDX shows it’s trading right at the neckline of the lower H&S consolidation pattern. A break below the neckline will complete the H&S consolidation which would give us a price objective down to the 9.78 area.

So there you have it . Not exactly the best time to be a bull in this disintegrating forsaken sector . But as always we watch the charts for clues .

Since the markets are closed in the US tomorrow I’ll do a part two for the Weekend Report as there is so much to look at right now. For US members enjoy the day off monday.

All the best

Gary (for Rambus Chartology)

http://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2016 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife