Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - John_Mauldin
2.Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - Andrew_Butter
5.Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - Troy_Bombardia
6.More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - Troy_Bombardia
7.US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - Troy_Bombardia
8.TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - James_Quinn
9.How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
10.This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - Patrick_Watson
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast 2019 - 18th Dec 18
Will US Government Shutdown Cause The Stock Market To Crash? - 18th Dec 18
The Coming Financial Storm - 18th Dec 18
Jeff Gundlach thinks that a Stocks Bear Market has started. Is he Right? - 18th Dec 18
Gold’s Not An Investment – You Won’t Get Rich - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market At Medium-Term Lows, Which Direction is Next? - 17th Dec 18
This Stock Will Drive America’s 5G Buildout - 17th Dec 18
Stock Market Turn In The Tide - Have a Happy Bear Market! - 17th Dec 18
How A NASA Scientist Could Trigger The Next Cannabis Boom - 17th Dec 18
iShares Russell 2000 IWM Leading Stock Market Decline - 17th Dec 18
Where is the Dow Stock Market Santa Rally? - 17th Dec 18
With Weaker Climate Consensus, Expect Elevated Climate Change - 16th Dec 18
SMIGGLE Advent Calendar 2018 UK Contents - What You Get Look Inside Review - 16th Dec 18
Is there a Lump of Coal in Santa's Stock Market Bag? - 16th Dec 18
This Market Will Drive Gold in 2019… - 16th Dec 18
Gerald Celente:Central Banks Can’t Stop a 2019 Debt Disaster - 16th Dec 18
Gold Stocks Triple Breakout - 15th Dec 18
The stock market fails to rally each day. What’s next for stocks - 14th Dec 18
How Low Could the S&P 500 Go? - 14th Dec 18
An Industrial to Stock Trade: Is Boeing a BUY Here? - 14th Dec 18
Will the Arrest of Huawei Executive Derail Trade War Truce? - 14th Dec 18
Trump vs the Fed: Who Wins? - 13th Dec 18
Expect Gold & Silver to Pullback Before the Next Move Higher - 13th Dec 18
Dollar Index Trends, USDJPY Setting Up - 13th Dec 18
While The Stocks Bulls Fiddle With The 'Fundamentals,' Rome Burns - 13th Dec 18
The Historic Role of Silver - 13th Dec 18
Natural Gas Price Setup for a Big Move Lower - 13th Dec 18
How to Get 20% Off Morrisons Weekly Supermarket Shopping - 13th Dec 18
Gold Price Analysis: Closer To A Significant Monetary Event - 13th Dec 18
Where is the Stock Market Santa Claus Rally? - 12th Dec 18
Politics and Economics in Times of Crisis - 12th Dec 18
Owning Precious Metals in an IRA - 12th Dec 18
Ways to Improve the Value of Your Home - 12th Dec 18
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts - 12th Dec 18
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux - 12th Dec 18
Wow Your Neighbours With the Best Christmas Projector Lights for Holidays 2018! - 12th Dec 18
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World - 11th Dec 18
The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios - 11th Dec 18
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish - 11th Dec 18
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? - 11th Dec 18
Making Money through Property Investment - 11th Dec 18
Brexit: What Will it Mean for Exchange Rates? - 11th Dec 18
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress - 10th Dec 18
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

Gold And Silver - Chart Facts Are Market's Message

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Jan 23, 2016 - 05:30 PM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

We keep reiterating that one need not be expert, nor even conversant, in reading a chart to be able to read and appreciate how charts "talk" and reveal very clear information. Opinions are of no consequence, regardless of how strong or otherwise "informed" one is about a market.

A fact is something upon which people of diverging opinions can agree, at least within reason. Each of the following charts contains facts, and it has always been our position that the market has its own message[s] contained in price volume behavior that has a convincing element of reason, no matter what the skill level of one's ability, or lack of, to read a chart.


See if you agree.

We continue to favor silver purchases over gold solely on the basis of the gold:silver ratio having extended to the 78:1 area, where a single ounce of gold can buy 78 oz of silver, in theory. In theory because there are transaction costs from a dealer. This week, we took advantage of the ratio and exchanged some gold for silver, on a personal level, getting 75:1 for each oz of gold.

For simplicity's sake, we use 10 oz of gold as our measure, and that translated into 750 oz of silver. The intent over a period of time, usually years, is to switch back from silver into gold. For sake of argument, assume the ratio goes to 40:1. That means it takes 40 oz of silver to buy a single oz of gold. Allowing for transaction costs, assume it takes 44 oz to buy an oz of gold. We had 750 oz, divided by 44, yields 17 oz of gold to switch. Our original 10 oz has now become 17 oz, just from patiently waiting for changes in the ratio to occur.

We expect the ratio can continue to 80:1, perhaps higher, we do not know for the chart on the higher weekly time frame does not show any sign of an end to the down trend. The reasoning, based on factual observations from reading developing market activity depicted in the chart, combined with logic, leads to that inescapable conclusion: price is likely to go lower.

Silver Weekly Chart

The daily chart supports the weak read for this market. As indicated in the chart comments, the message from the market is weakness, followed by more weakness with each passing week and month.

When will a turnaround occur? As we keep saying, no one knows, and for sure we do not. What we know for certain is that the market will give clear signs when and as a turnaround is developing. For as long as the message remains constant, one must exercise patience. Actually, there is no choice, and those who have been impatient and tried to pick a bottom have paid a price, depending upon how hard-headed one is, or the size of one's margin call.

Silver Daily Chart

What is also true is that smart money buys low and sells high, for the most part. It is less important to buy the exact bottom or sell the exact top, for it takes time to accumulate a position during lows, or distribute a position near highs. However, whenever you see large spikes in volume, you can be sure that smart money is on the other side of the trade.

Who is on the other side? Weak handed traders with insufficient staying power.

If smart money were buying silver, below, [even though it is only a 20 minute intra day chart, the principle is what matters], their activity, and it shows up in increased volume, would be nearer the lows, and certainly not at the highs. The largest volume spike that sticks out like a sore thumb, occurred at the highs. This is not where smart money would be buying. If not buying, then they must be selling, and weak-handed buyers are buying into the late stages of a rally.

Confirmation occurs a few bars later when an even larger range bar appears to the down side and erasing all the buying effort from the rally to the high. We mentioned weak closes on the weekly chart as an indication that sellers are still in control and buyers cannot hold a rally. This 20 minute chart is an abbreviated time frame that demonstrates this principle over every time frame. It is a message from the market that bears heeding every time.

Silver 20-Minute Chart

This chart is an update from one posted a few weeks ago. There was no sign of change then, and that fact has not changed to date. Keep in mind, all of the fundamental information on gold, and silver, is known. The whole world is aware of how bullish the news is, how bullish demand is relative to supply. Yet, despite that information, the market is telling everyone who cares to pay attention that those fundamental factors are not what is moving these markets.

Even if one does not understand the underlying reasons, fundamental or otherwise, it pays to heed what the market is showing and react accordingly. This is still a bear market, all other news notwithstanding. Price is the final arbiter, not one's opinion.

Gold Weekly Chart

If there were something positive we could say about this chart, we would, but we cannot, and that is enough said.

Gold Daily Chart

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2015 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules