Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Observations

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Feb 12, 2016 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

I am showing the larger charts because they display the big picture more clearly. It is now clear that Intermediate Waves (1) through (5) of Primary Wave [C] are A-B-C Waves and not impulsive in the strict sense. We would normally expect to see a clean 5-wave decline in Wave C. This is either a rare variation or an outright aberration. Which is it? I don’t know.

This has Elliott Wavers tied in knots, since an A-B-C move is normally corrective and in this case tells the Elliottician that the next move is a rally! In fact, most analysts would say that today’s decline is a Wave B-with- rally-to-follow. What no one else is watching is the natural resistance at the cycle Bottom at 1868.20 which has been stopping the retracement rallies all week long.


The Cycles have been a great help to me, even though the more casual Cycle followers would call this the positive seasonal Cycle. Some Cycle!

Wave [i] of C has just completed. It has broken the 1812.29 low which sets the stage for a greater decline. Now we wait for Wave 2 to complete.

The issue at hand is time. Today this Cycle will have consumed its normal impulsive decline time of 60.2 hours shortly after 1:00 pm tomorrow. However, it has only complete Waves A & B and [i] of C. The Cycles consist of two parts, time and distance. This leads me to an observation. All of the Cycle bottoms in 2007 and early 2008 were an average 4.3 days early. For example, Wave (C) of [A] was due on March 22, 2008. It bottomed on March 17 instead. However, Wave 1 of (3) of [C] was due on September 15 and fell on September 18. Wave 3 of (3) of [C] was a day late, but Wave 5 of (3) of [C] was due on November 18 and fell on November 22, 2008.

In 2015, The Wave [A] low fell on August 24, but was due on September1, five market days later. Wave (1) of [C] happened to be overdue by a day on January 20. Therefore, it should be no surprise to see Wave (3) of [C} one (or more) market day(s) late next Tuesday (our next Pivot Day, as well). Monday is Presidents’ Day, a market holiday. So time can be stretched in these Cycles. What may affect trading on Tuesday is that China and Japan will be open for a full day’s trading on our Sunday and Monday while Europe will be a day-and-a-half ahead of our markets. That does not position the longs very well if something blows up before the open on Tuesday. There is more commentary on this at the bottom.

Here is an even bigger picture of where Cycle Wave I may go. The Orthodox Broadening Top and Head & Shoulders formations consistently target the minimum Wave (3) lows. I hope I am wrong for the sake of many friends who are long, but those formations may be conservative in their targeting. In both 1987 and 2008, Wave (3) of [C] was triple the size of Wave (1) of [C]. You can do the math.

That implies a possible catastrophe may happen over the extended weekend. Deutsche Bank, among a few other companies, comes to mind, but there are other accidents waiting to happen out there.

I just don’t think there is an option to go sideways from here.

NDX is also attempting to retest its cycle Bottom at 4065.65, but may not succeed. This move may not invalidate the Head & Shoulders formation. Possibly due to the lack of Central Bank interference, the NDX Wave structure appears to be much simpler than that of the SPX.

The issue that I have with the single targeting formation is that, if it sticks to that target, Wave (3) would only be 1.5 times the size of Wave (1). Somehow I can imagine Wave (3) being much larger than that.

Which brings me back to the time issue. Next week is Options Expiration week. Somehow I think that the powers-that-be may wish to see their bearish bets in the options market pay off. After some calculations, it appears that the decline from the Wave (2) high will be exactly 86 hours in length as of the close on Thursday, February 18.

In yet another calculation, the decline from the Wave 2 high may take exactly 43 hours by 11:00 am on Friday, February 19.

That would give more than adequate time for a proper Wave (3) decline. I probably wouldn’t advise testing the second observation since most of you were early to go short and shouldn’t want to extract the last nickel out of the decline. Sir John Templeton once remarked, “I always leave something on the table for the next guy.”

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules