Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Observations

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Feb 12, 2016 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

I am showing the larger charts because they display the big picture more clearly. It is now clear that Intermediate Waves (1) through (5) of Primary Wave [C] are A-B-C Waves and not impulsive in the strict sense. We would normally expect to see a clean 5-wave decline in Wave C. This is either a rare variation or an outright aberration. Which is it? I don’t know.

This has Elliott Wavers tied in knots, since an A-B-C move is normally corrective and in this case tells the Elliottician that the next move is a rally! In fact, most analysts would say that today’s decline is a Wave B-with- rally-to-follow. What no one else is watching is the natural resistance at the cycle Bottom at 1868.20 which has been stopping the retracement rallies all week long.


The Cycles have been a great help to me, even though the more casual Cycle followers would call this the positive seasonal Cycle. Some Cycle!

Wave [i] of C has just completed. It has broken the 1812.29 low which sets the stage for a greater decline. Now we wait for Wave 2 to complete.

The issue at hand is time. Today this Cycle will have consumed its normal impulsive decline time of 60.2 hours shortly after 1:00 pm tomorrow. However, it has only complete Waves A & B and [i] of C. The Cycles consist of two parts, time and distance. This leads me to an observation. All of the Cycle bottoms in 2007 and early 2008 were an average 4.3 days early. For example, Wave (C) of [A] was due on March 22, 2008. It bottomed on March 17 instead. However, Wave 1 of (3) of [C] was due on September 15 and fell on September 18. Wave 3 of (3) of [C] was a day late, but Wave 5 of (3) of [C] was due on November 18 and fell on November 22, 2008.

In 2015, The Wave [A] low fell on August 24, but was due on September1, five market days later. Wave (1) of [C] happened to be overdue by a day on January 20. Therefore, it should be no surprise to see Wave (3) of [C} one (or more) market day(s) late next Tuesday (our next Pivot Day, as well). Monday is Presidents’ Day, a market holiday. So time can be stretched in these Cycles. What may affect trading on Tuesday is that China and Japan will be open for a full day’s trading on our Sunday and Monday while Europe will be a day-and-a-half ahead of our markets. That does not position the longs very well if something blows up before the open on Tuesday. There is more commentary on this at the bottom.

Here is an even bigger picture of where Cycle Wave I may go. The Orthodox Broadening Top and Head & Shoulders formations consistently target the minimum Wave (3) lows. I hope I am wrong for the sake of many friends who are long, but those formations may be conservative in their targeting. In both 1987 and 2008, Wave (3) of [C] was triple the size of Wave (1) of [C]. You can do the math.

That implies a possible catastrophe may happen over the extended weekend. Deutsche Bank, among a few other companies, comes to mind, but there are other accidents waiting to happen out there.

I just don’t think there is an option to go sideways from here.

NDX is also attempting to retest its cycle Bottom at 4065.65, but may not succeed. This move may not invalidate the Head & Shoulders formation. Possibly due to the lack of Central Bank interference, the NDX Wave structure appears to be much simpler than that of the SPX.

The issue that I have with the single targeting formation is that, if it sticks to that target, Wave (3) would only be 1.5 times the size of Wave (1). Somehow I can imagine Wave (3) being much larger than that.

Which brings me back to the time issue. Next week is Options Expiration week. Somehow I think that the powers-that-be may wish to see their bearish bets in the options market pay off. After some calculations, it appears that the decline from the Wave (2) high will be exactly 86 hours in length as of the close on Thursday, February 18.

In yet another calculation, the decline from the Wave 2 high may take exactly 43 hours by 11:00 am on Friday, February 19.

That would give more than adequate time for a proper Wave (3) decline. I probably wouldn’t advise testing the second observation since most of you were early to go short and shouldn’t want to extract the last nickel out of the decline. Sir John Templeton once remarked, “I always leave something on the table for the next guy.”

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in