Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Observations

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Feb 12, 2016 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

I am showing the larger charts because they display the big picture more clearly. It is now clear that Intermediate Waves (1) through (5) of Primary Wave [C] are A-B-C Waves and not impulsive in the strict sense. We would normally expect to see a clean 5-wave decline in Wave C. This is either a rare variation or an outright aberration. Which is it? I don’t know.

This has Elliott Wavers tied in knots, since an A-B-C move is normally corrective and in this case tells the Elliottician that the next move is a rally! In fact, most analysts would say that today’s decline is a Wave B-with- rally-to-follow. What no one else is watching is the natural resistance at the cycle Bottom at 1868.20 which has been stopping the retracement rallies all week long.


The Cycles have been a great help to me, even though the more casual Cycle followers would call this the positive seasonal Cycle. Some Cycle!

Wave [i] of C has just completed. It has broken the 1812.29 low which sets the stage for a greater decline. Now we wait for Wave 2 to complete.

The issue at hand is time. Today this Cycle will have consumed its normal impulsive decline time of 60.2 hours shortly after 1:00 pm tomorrow. However, it has only complete Waves A & B and [i] of C. The Cycles consist of two parts, time and distance. This leads me to an observation. All of the Cycle bottoms in 2007 and early 2008 were an average 4.3 days early. For example, Wave (C) of [A] was due on March 22, 2008. It bottomed on March 17 instead. However, Wave 1 of (3) of [C] was due on September 15 and fell on September 18. Wave 3 of (3) of [C] was a day late, but Wave 5 of (3) of [C] was due on November 18 and fell on November 22, 2008.

In 2015, The Wave [A] low fell on August 24, but was due on September1, five market days later. Wave (1) of [C] happened to be overdue by a day on January 20. Therefore, it should be no surprise to see Wave (3) of [C} one (or more) market day(s) late next Tuesday (our next Pivot Day, as well). Monday is Presidents’ Day, a market holiday. So time can be stretched in these Cycles. What may affect trading on Tuesday is that China and Japan will be open for a full day’s trading on our Sunday and Monday while Europe will be a day-and-a-half ahead of our markets. That does not position the longs very well if something blows up before the open on Tuesday. There is more commentary on this at the bottom.

Here is an even bigger picture of where Cycle Wave I may go. The Orthodox Broadening Top and Head & Shoulders formations consistently target the minimum Wave (3) lows. I hope I am wrong for the sake of many friends who are long, but those formations may be conservative in their targeting. In both 1987 and 2008, Wave (3) of [C] was triple the size of Wave (1) of [C]. You can do the math.

That implies a possible catastrophe may happen over the extended weekend. Deutsche Bank, among a few other companies, comes to mind, but there are other accidents waiting to happen out there.

I just don’t think there is an option to go sideways from here.

NDX is also attempting to retest its cycle Bottom at 4065.65, but may not succeed. This move may not invalidate the Head & Shoulders formation. Possibly due to the lack of Central Bank interference, the NDX Wave structure appears to be much simpler than that of the SPX.

The issue that I have with the single targeting formation is that, if it sticks to that target, Wave (3) would only be 1.5 times the size of Wave (1). Somehow I can imagine Wave (3) being much larger than that.

Which brings me back to the time issue. Next week is Options Expiration week. Somehow I think that the powers-that-be may wish to see their bearish bets in the options market pay off. After some calculations, it appears that the decline from the Wave (2) high will be exactly 86 hours in length as of the close on Thursday, February 18.

In yet another calculation, the decline from the Wave 2 high may take exactly 43 hours by 11:00 am on Friday, February 19.

That would give more than adequate time for a proper Wave (3) decline. I probably wouldn’t advise testing the second observation since most of you were early to go short and shouldn’t want to extract the last nickel out of the decline. Sir John Templeton once remarked, “I always leave something on the table for the next guy.”

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules