Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Central Bank Inflation Targets: Be Careful What You Wish For

Economics / Inflation Feb 25, 2016 - 08:35 PM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Economics

Did you ever ask yourself what this central bank obsession with inflation is really all about? After all, it is highly ironic that these erstwhile stewards of price stability have now perversely morphed into the frantic pursuit of currency destruction. This is because the current doctrine adopted by global central bankers is that growth comes from inflation; and without inflation there can be no growth. Therefore, as their new dogma dictates, inflation must be achieved at any cost.


One of the new strategies deployed by central bankers to raise prices is to push interest rates into negative territory. But negative interest rates are certainly not about paying consumers to take on new debt. And they aren't really so much about compelling banks to lend money by charging them to park fallow reserves at the central bank. Rather, the truth is negative interest rates are mostly about keeping insolvent governments afloat by constantly reducing debt service payments. In fact, there is currently about $7 trillion worth of global sovereign debt with yields that are less than zero.

Thanks to record low interest rates in the U.S. (although not yet negative), the Treasury spent just $223 billion (6%) of Federal revenue to service its publicly traded debt during 2015. However, if Treasury yields went back to where they were prior to the Great Recession of 2008, that figure would jump to about $700 billion, or 21% of all Federal revenue.

Since the U.S. is barely growing at record low rates, it would likely be a severe economic shock if debt service costs were to spike in such a manner. And achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target is exactly the type of thing that would the cause such a surge in borrowing costs. That's what makes the Fed's inflation quest all the more insane.

But the consequence of central bank "success" in reaching a 2% inflation target in Japan would be much more destructive than in the United States. Japan officially announced the move to negative interest rates on bank deposits on January 29th. Yields on sovereign debt, which were already negative going out seven years along the curve, subsequently went negative out to 10 years. As a result of these extremely favorable interest rates, the Japanese government currently pays about 15% of its revenue to service the debt. However, if interest rates were to increase back to 2%--the level seen before the Financial Crisis-Japan would be forced to pay a whopping 60% of its revenue for debt payments.

Japan has been mired in an economic morass for decades. The nation recently announced Q4 2015 GDP shrank at a 1.4% annualized rate. Indeed, Japan is flirting with its fifth recession in the last seven years and has suffered negative growth in two of the last three quarters. If debt costs were to surge from 15-60%, the Japanese economy would move from a perpetual recession to a devastating depression in short order.

It is a good bet that central banks will eventually be able to achieve their inflation targets-they have historically always been able to do so. They may resort to circumventing the banking system by directly purchasing newly issued government debt if ZIRP, NIRP and QE don't satisfied their inflation goals.

And this is why central banks are guaranteed to fail miserably in their effort to produce viable growth through inflation. Once inflation targets are reached they will have to begin winding down purchases of sovereign debt or risk pushing prices out of control. If not, it would lead to utter currency destruction, soaring yields on all fixed income assets and economic chaos. Therefore, they will be forced to switch from deflation fighters to inflation fighters.

But this change in monetary policy will come after these central bankers have so massively distorted the bond and equity markets in relation to the economy that it could cause both equity and bond prices to crash simultaneously. This is because investors will rush to front-run the offer to sell sovereign debt and equities from central banks. It is no coincidence that the S&P 500 began its topping process once QE ended in October 2014 and that the average stock had fallen 25% in January of this year after the Fed began to raise interest rates.

The real purpose of all the extraordinary and unprecedented measures taken by central banks over the past few years isn't about achieving an arbitrary inflation target. I don't believe the Fed, the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan really believes 2% inflation is better for productivity and labor force growth than having no inflation at all. The reality is these central banks need an excuse to continue manipulating bond yields inexorably lower in order to accommodate soaring debt levels.

But in this endeavor there is no easy escape. The equity and bond markets have become absolute wards of central bankers and central banks cannot stop buying government debt without causing markets and economies to crash. Of course, they will eventually have to stop in order to avoid runaway inflation. That is the huge dilemma facing global central banks. And unfortunately, this means the real economic and market volatility is yet to come.

Michael Pento produces the weekly podcast “The Mid-week Reality Check”, is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”

Respectfully,

Michael Pento
President
Pento Portfolio Strategies
www.pentoport.com
mpento@pentoport.com

Twitter@ michaelpento1
(O) 732-203-1333
(M) 732- 213-1295

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS). PPS is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm that provides money management services and research for individual and institutional clients.

Michael is a well-established specialist in markets and economics and a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other international media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to thestreet.com and is a blogger at the Huffington Post.
               
Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors. 
       
Additionally, Michael has worked at an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street.  Earlier in his career he spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Michael Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.
       

© 2016 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in