Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

New Gold Bull Market Now Official; Breaking Point in Paper Gold?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Mar 08, 2016 - 12:07 PM GMT

By: MoneyMetals

Commodities

Gold officially entered a bull market in last week’s trading with prices gaining more than 20% from their December lows. The silver price also put on some very nice gains, but the price needs to reach about $16.40 before watchers can make the same claim.

If the white metal can exceed last week’s gains of more than 5%, the silver market will reach official bull territory too.


Metals investors will be following the speculation surrounding the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 16th. Recent rallies in stocks, commodities, and oil are raising the odds that officials just might hike rates once again. Their problem is that the rally we’re seeing is largely based upon speculation they would not further tighten.

The FOMC hiked rates in December. The ensuing carnage in the markets during the second half of December and January led to a consensus that officials would abandon attempts at further increases. Some even speculated that officials would completely reverse course and may even implement negative rates. At which point the rally began.

Markets are behaving like the stimulus addicts they have become. The Fed is caught in a trap of its own making. Officials may want to raise rates, but recent experience has shown they won’t be able to pull that off without immediate and profound consequences.

Cracks Widen in Paper Gold Market

Gold investors witnessed a “first” in the markets last week. Constraints emerged in the previously limitless supply of paper gold. Blackrock announced that it was suspending issuance of new shares in the iShare’s Gold Trust (IAU).

The Blackrock press release describes the suspension as temporary. The fund has to make a filing with the SEC before they can resume issuing new shares. Demand for gold since the start of the year apparently caught them flat footed. From the Blackrock press release:

Since the start of 2016, in response to global macroeconomic conditions, demand for gold and for IAU has surged among global investors. IAU has $8 billion in assets under management, and has expanded $1.4 billion year to date. February marked its largest creation activity in the last decade.

The growth in investment demand for gold is extraordinary, but that may not be the only story.

Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report wonders if Blackrock is telling the whole truth. He asks an important question; why did Blackrock wait until their ability to issue new shares was completely exhausted? If it is just a matter of a routine filing, the halt in sales could have easily been avoided.

One possible answer is the halt has more to do with the increasing shortage of gold registered as available for delivery. Blackrock can make the filing easily enough, but perhaps getting the actual gold bars to back new shares is more of a challenge. In other words, the halt may have more to do with this revelation from ZeroHedge.com:

Stocks of “registered” gold bars – those designated as being available for delivery against futures contracts – continue to dwindle.

In the past, inventory of “allocated” gold was reclassified as registered whenever needed, a quick and simple process. But that isn’t happening this time around. In fact, we are seeing the opposite. Registered stocks are being converted to the "allocated" category and taken off the market.

The COMEX gold cover ratio recently hit 542 ounces of paper gold for every ounce of physical metal. Such extreme leverage is so far off into uncharted territory that it cannot be dismissed.

While it is true historically that a sharp decline in registered bars has never resulted in actual delivery problems, even those quickest to discount the developing shortage must be wondering why the cover ratio is now more than five times its previous all-time high.

The most recent COMEX report shows a little over 11 metric tonnes of registered gold on hand. Consider that the IAU added roughly 19 tonnes in both January and February. The much larger SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) added more than 75 tonnes per month in the first two months of the year.

Meanwhile, according to TFMetalsReport.com, gold demand from both Russia and China continues at about 20 tonnes per month and India imports up to 100 tonnes/month.

Of course, not all of this gold is coming from exchange stockpiles. Mine production covers the bulk of demand. However, the World Gold Council reports gold demand outstripped gold supply by more than 80 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2015. Those tonnes were, in large part, sourced from the COMEX and other exchange vaults.

The supply deficit in the first quarter of 2016 promises to be far worse. It is time for investors in paper gold – ETFs and futures contracts – to seriously question from whence all of the gold supposedly backing their paper is coming.

By Clint Siegner

MoneyMetals.com

Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, perhaps the nation's fastest-growing dealer of low-premium precious metals coins, rounds, and bars. Siegner, a graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

© 2016 Clint Siegner - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in