Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Amazing Steps to avoid the common mistakes - 23rd Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports - 22nd Apr 21
China's record first quarter fuels strong expansion in 2021 - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Price Next Key Level - 22nd Apr 21
Here's What to Look For When Hiring a Real Estate Agent - 22nd Apr 21
Ethereum EIP 1559 and Raven Coin - 21st Apr 21
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving - 21st Apr 21
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! - 21st Apr 21
DogeCoin CRASH! Time to Start Mining BOODGIE Coin! Crypto Mania 2021 - 21st Apr 21
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks - 21st Apr 21
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 - 21st Apr 21
Looking For A Mortgage Broker? Here Is How To Hire One - 21st Apr 21
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

S&P Stock Market Index 400 Point Move!

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Jul 14, 2008 - 03:30 AM GMT

By: Dominick

Stock-Markets What if that was the headline for this coming week, a four hundred point move in the S&P? Most likely, you'd be loading up on out of the money puts or calls , looking for the market to close at record highs or down around 800. If you haven't noticed, those looking for a sudden, dramatic collapse in stocks have been thwarted by a slow, persistent drip downward occasionally punctuated by vicious snapback rallies.


But what if I told you the S&P 500 did move 400 points? Just last week in fact. Sure, on a closing basis we're lower by just 16, though it feels like 1600. Not counting tiny wiggles, though, all the larger moves on an intraday 15-minute chart from last week add up to about 400 points. That's more than if you shorted the top tick at 1440 three months ago, or even the all-time high back in October, almost a year ago.

Realistically, it's very unlikely that many shorted that record high, and if they did, those have all been shaken out long ago by now. Most professional money managers would kill to have just a piece of that total move from October, which measures to about 345. Yet unbiased traders who aren't trying to hit a home run are making big money taking 60-70% of those points or more every week. No, it's not easy, but at TTC, that's what we do!

Now that we've closed our doors to new retail membership, existing members have had the opportunity to acclimate themselves to our trading style and learn our proprietary indicators and targets. They've learned to stop counting a volatile market. But even more importantly, they've learned to stop trying to catch a bottom or a top and just trade.

So, with that in mind, looking at our longer term charts for the next big idea going into this week, there are several factors that seem to be lining up to produce a tradeable bounce and the last thing we want to do is be short into it. But make no mistake, the bears have the upper hand after taking out the March low and if there isn't at least some type of decent rally soon, this market could finally be ready to go lower in a big way.

The chart above has been a main focus of ours all year as we've watched the Dow interact with two major trendlines stretching back to the 1980s. Yes, the market could continue its decline from here – everything can continue to go wrong as it did last week with the market ignoring major projected cycle bottoms and losing support even after a clear five waves down. But, being unbiased means we have to keep in mind the idea that we at least get a kissback here, possibly even to one of the major trendlines. And given the other corroborating factors described further in this update, risk/reward would seem to favor some strenght in the market here soon. 11750 in the Dow will again be an important deciding area on any rally that gains momentum.

The chart above is a clear indication of potential support working in this area. We had 1440 as a crucial test even as we were starting our ascent off the March lows. And, after finding resistance there to the tick, we looked for support at 1333 and 1256, both of which have failed. But our plan all along to see the S&P hold up as the banking index completed five waves down with new lows. While the chart above shows the S&P reaching strong potential support at multi-year trendlines, the chart below shows Citigroup at or near a bottom. The “flat” wave pattern C is trying to complete and can end immediately or extend as low as the 1.382 extension. What is certain is that a bottom in the banks will translate into a powerful rally, even if short lived, in the major stock indices, and, again, the last thing we want to do is to be short into something like that!

Another major factor that could be contributing to a tradable rally in the very near term is oil. Of course, oil has been watched by everyone and has been one of the major headwinds in this market. Having clearly gone parabolic some time ago, the move in oil now looks overdone and when it breaks, it can break hard and fast. Like a bottom in the banks, a top in oil could have profoundly bullish implications for the broader market. My chart and targets have to be reserved for members, but believe you me there is a trade here that can make your entire year, and fast. At TTC we've traded both sides of this market from $123, but are now looking for short entries. If what we're watching is correct, the TV is going to soon shift its focus from $150 oil to $100.

And finally, there's sentiment, which has become awfully, horribly bearish. It may not be reflected in the VIX because of the orderly nature of the decline, but believe you me that many people are short this market and getting complacent even as the fact that nothing worked in the market last week, combined with the other factors I've described, suggests the possibility of at least a short term low. And, as I've said, there's still a chance that our dip below 1256 is still a minor poke if we get a recovery soon next week. You know now the market and areas we will be watching for confirmation of this idea. If not, then look out below because there's no more room for the bulls to extend lower for another week like we've been seeing. The biased bears have finally gotten a chance to short blindly and be right, but this is rare and doesn't last forever. The unbiased traders have made money on the downside and have no illusions going into next week.

Institutional traders , if you're ready to get on the team that makes money no matter what the market environment, then maybe it's time you joined TTC.

Long time readers will remember that after two years of growing our membership through consistently accurate and tradable market analysis, we closed our doors recently to focus on our existing membership, largely institutional traders, and give them a chance integrate our approach into their trading. Old habits don't change overnight, and it usually takes weeks if not months for new members to start making consistent gains with the resources offered at TTC. We are a serious group of dedicated traders with only one mission: to trade profitably. Those that take the time to learn our methods are very happy they did.

Retail traders , if you missed the chance to join earlier this year, do not hesitate to click here and register for the waiting list with no obligation at all. In the very near future we will be providing the first opportunity for membership from that list.

In the meantime, be careful out there. Be aware of what the charts are saying in multiple markets and tune out the TV. Don't be afraid to take high risk/reward trades, but be ready to cut your losses quickly if it's wrong. But most of all, be unbiased.

By Dominick , a.k.a. Spwaver
www.tradingthecharts.com

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.

Dominick Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules