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Trading Lessons

YAWN......VIX Lower...Beta Lower.... Stock Market To Nowhere...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Mar 29, 2016 - 09:27 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The emotions run high as it seems something special is about to happen, only to see it disappear in a puff of sadness. It looks like the market is about to rock, but it doesn't. You say to me, but it has run up already. I say, but to where? It goes nowhere in the end. Nothing sustainable. We rise. We get overbought. We pull back. We rise, and then see negative divergences, and then fall again. It goes nowhere in the big picture. Today was incredibly boring simply because beta, volatility, if you will, is leaving the ball park. Taking a vacation as the lower VIX readings are taking over, even though the VIX was up today. Oh how many long for the days of VIX readings in the upper 20's or lower 30's. Then we'd see 100-point moves on the Nasdaq as routine.


Now it's a third of that. And with the market being mindless and going nowhere it's a real turn off for the masses. I get it, but it's no fun, and that's just the way it is, so today was a boring day with almost no volume. They may start piling up in the weeks ahead, so be prepared. If you're in plays long you don't want to sell unless the S&P 500 loses strong support at 2000. If you're short, you don't want to cover unless the S&P 500 takes out 2044 with force. A close over 2056 preferably, or the last high. Whipsaw is likely to remain the game we play and see on a daily basis, but in smaller chunks. Still nowhere as the market decides whether it wants to play on truth, or remain in the land of fantasy. Sadly, one day at a time as the market is giving no clues about its ultimate next bigger move one way or the other. It's keeping us all guessing by doing nothing. How much fun is that!

This morning we got more bad news on the economic front as we saw consumer spending slow down yet again. No worries. Market doesn't care. It also saw wages fall. No worries. Market doesn't care. Inflation lower. Market doesn't care. GDP could be hit to the down side. Market doesn't care. All any of this means is say goodbye to the possibility of rates moving higher. Oh, ok. That means all is fine. Disneyland back in form. Bad news is good news. No matter what supposed good news goes right for the bears they can't seem to get any satisfaction. The Rolling Stones would be proud. Just no satisfaction, although they try.

The bears are stuck as all the market bulls are focused on is whether fed Yellen will be there to protect and comfort. Poor babies need comforting. No worries. They'll get it in spades. As much as they could ever need. So yes, the bulls dodged another bullet today. They should have gotten smoked based on truth. In a bear market we would have seen some large losses across the board today. Not to be. Maybe we can get a day or two of selling in here. Only when the bears can remove S&P 500 2000 should the bulls have any concerns that may last for more than five minutes. It's a different game now, folks. The market is no longer the market we used to know. Those days are dead and gone. What we have now is a market run by the few for the masses.

Fed Yellen speaks tomorrow at 11:30 A.M. Eastern Time, and, of course, every single nauseating word will be picked apart by all the market participants. I am most certain that the one thing she won't do is hint towards rising rates. She wouldn't want the market to go down based on words out of her mouth. She'll remain dovish until the election is over and then maybe hit the market over the head with rate hike cycle, but that remains to be seen. It'll be yet another interesting day tomorrow to see how much control she has over everything. More than we'd like I'm sure. For now, just use S&P 500 2080 and 2000 as your key levels to watch in the weeks ahead.

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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