In my opinion, gold’s Cycle is setup well for a surprise, $200 Gold rally. Gold has reached an interesting crossroads and based on the Cycle position, some significant volatility lies ahead. The Gold sector is doing well, and has held up after impressive gains. It has seen a couple of weeks of price consolidation, but no serious selling. This points to a strong underlying bid, and is reflective of a bull market.

After bouncing off the 20dma, Gold has been jammed between the 10dma and 20dma. It has yet to resume the uptrend, and the remainder of this week, into early next week, should reveal whether the short term bullish case for a Gold rally will play out. But whether it does or not, Gold is out of excuses. If it cannot resume its move higher, the bears will likely take control and drive significant selling on the backside of the current Investor Cycle (IC).

The precious metals Miners have also held their huge gains. Normally, once the Miners top, the trip to the next Daily Cycle Low (DCL) is quick and severe. But not so this time. The lack of any real retracement in the Miners is indicative of a Gold Cycle ready to move higher.

The sky above the Miners is not completely clear, however; there are warning signs that should not be ignored. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index is a reliable indicator of a Gold Cycle top, and as shown below, appears to have topped and turned lower. The Miners are leveraged to Gold, so if Gold has topped, the over-stretched Miners will suffer far greater losses than will Gold. So any current Longs should be in the metal itself this time around.

Nevertheless, markets often fool traders, and commodity bull markets especially so. History shows that once a Gold bull market has begun, standard technical indicators can be ignored for the first 6 to 12 months. Gold can be so relentless and unpredictable in rising off of a long term bottom that technical indicators don’t work well for a period of time. And if you’re still unsure whether Gold is in a bull market, take a look at the price action in the Miners. Or look at the level of Gold bullion buying, shown below.

Looking at the weekly chart, I still believe that a $200 surprise, Gold rally is in the cards. Few others believe such a move is possible, but I still see the setup clearly, and have good skin in the game to capture such a move.

Despite my being positioned for upside, there are still reasons to be skeptical of Gold’s immediate prospects. Chief among them is the lack of a clear ICL when one was due. If Gold were to lose the 20-day moving average or the 10-week moving average, the near term bullish case would be negated and I would brace for a more traditional Investor Cycle price decline.

The lack of an IC price decline is a primary reason that I see the potential for a $200 rally. And the presence of a (bullish) pennant consolidation, followed by a new high, provides fuel and a target for a move higher. All of that said, seeing the upside scenario is exciting, and we can’t be so blinded that we forget that it is only one of several possible outcomes.

Trading Strategy Ideas

I prefer the Gold ETF rather than the Miners as a precaution. If Gold breaks down from here, the stops are set tight and offer a very nice risk/reward setup. I also believe that in any second leg Gold rally, it’s gold that needs to play serious catch-up to the precious metals miners, Silver and Platinum. On the other hand, to give the trade the room it would need, a position in the Miners at current levels would need a huge, 20-25% Stop cushion, far too wide (and risky) to justify a position.

Above all, remember to define your risk clearly before entering into a trade, understand your target/objective, and of course, always use stops. I see the May 10th, $1,258 as an important level, closing below that has me cutting Long exposure. Then below that, $1,228 is the ultimate stopping point.

The Financial Tap publishes two member reports per week, a weekly premium report and a midweek market update report. The reports cover the movements and trading opportunities of the Gold, S&P, Oil, $USD, US Bond’s, and Natural Gas Cycles. Along with these reports, members enjoy access to two different portfolios and trade alerts. Both portfolios trade on varying time-frames (from days, weeks, to months), there is a portfolio to suit all member preferences.

You’re just 1 minute away from profitable trades! please visit: http://thefinancialtap.com

By Bob Loukas

http://thefinancialtap.com

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.