Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
S&P 500 Just 2% Below Record High, But There's More Stock Market Uncertainty - 19th Jul 18
Stock Market Technical Picture - 19th Jul 18
Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - 19th Jul 18
Don’t Get Too Bullish on Gold - 19th Jul 18
Bitcoin Price Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next? - 19th Jul 18
Trump Manchurian President Embarrasses Putin By Farcically Blowing his Russian Agent Cover - 19th Jul 18
The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - 19th Jul 18
Will the Fed’s Interest Rate Tightening Trigger Another Financial Crisis? - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Investor “Buy the Dip” Mentality is Still Strong, Which is Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - 18th Jul 18
A Better Yield Curve for Predicting the Stock Market is Bullish - 18th Jul 18
U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - 18th Jul 18
Cayton Bay Hoseasons Caravan Park Holiday Summer 2018 Review - 18th Jul 18
What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? - 17th Jul 18
Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits - 17th Jul 18
Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time - 17th Jul 18
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 - 16th Jul 18
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... - 16th Jul 18
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally - 16th Jul 18
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? - 16th Jul 18
Trump Fee-Fi-Foe-Fum Declares European Union America's Enemy! - 16th Jul 18
US Stocks Set For Further Advances As Q2 Earnings Start - 15th Jul 18
Stock Market vs. Gold, Long-term Treasury Yields, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve 3 Amigo's Update - 15th Jul 18
China vs the US - The Road to War - 14th Jul 18
Uncle Sam’s Debt-Money System Is Immoral, Tantamount to Theft - 14th Jul 18
Staying in a Caravan - UK Summer Holidays 2018 - Cayton Bay Hoseasons Holiday Park - 14th Jul 18
Gold Stocks Summer Lows - 14th Jul 18
Trump US Trade War With China, Europe Consequences, Implications and Forecasts - 13th Jul 18
Gold Standard Requirements & Currency Crisis - 13th Jul 18
Focus on the Greenback, Will USD Fall Below Euro 1.6? - 13th Jul 18
Stock Market Outlook 2018 - Bullish or Bearish - 13th Jul 18
Rising Inflation is Not Bearish for Stocks - 13th Jul 18
Bitcoin Picture Less Than Pretty - 13th Jul 18
How International Observers Undervalue the Chinese Bond Market - 13th Jul 18
Stocks Trying to Break Higher Again, Will They? - 12th Jul 18
The Rise and Fall of Global Trade – Redux - 12th Jul 18
Corporate Earnings Q2 2018 Will Probably be Strong. What This Means for Stocks - 12th Jul 18
Is the Relative Strength in Gold Miners to Gold Price Significant? - 12th Jul 18
Live Cattle Commodity Trading Analysis - 12th Jul 18
Gold’s & Silver’s Reversals’ Reversal - 12th Jul 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Stocks Report, European Commission in Panic Over New Brexit Opinion Poll

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jun 06, 2016 - 03:17 PM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

In 17 days time, on the 23rd. of June, Britain goes to the polls to decide whether to stay in the European Union or not. Should Great Britain opt to leave it will send financial and political shock waves around the world. Many believe a win for the leave faction would put Europe’s stressed banking system under such pressure that a “Lehman Brothers type event” could occur, the main candidate being Deutsche Bank with its 75 trillion derivative exposure.  Thus June 2016 could turn out to be one of the most volatile trading months in financial history.


Last week the Guardian Newspaper in London reported that for the first time the leave campaign had moved into the lead in a “poll of polls”. This news sent the European Commission into a blind panic and a secret meeting was called at the highest level to set in place plans to deal with England’s potential exit. Up until now the Commission refused to admit it had any such strategy in place, as they believed such a “statement” would add credibility to the leave camp.

This is what Daniel Boffey of the Observer had to say this Sunday:

Opinium survey suggests remain camp has lost four points in two weeks, as Boris Johnson (Mayor of London) prepares to campaign on immigration and security.

The leave campaign has picked up momentum and taken a three-point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they support the campaign to keep the UK in the union.

The potential in the leave campaign’s strategy is reflected in responses suggesting that two in five voters (41%) cite immigration as one of their two most important issues when deciding how to vote. Just over a third (35%) cite Britain’s ability to make its own laws without EU interference and 29% cite the impact of leaving on the UK economy.

Half of the 2,007 people surveyed said they believed immigration would be under better control if the UK did leave the EU. Twelve percent felt the UK would have more control if the country retained its EU membership, and 24% said there would be little difference.

Johnson is expected to launch a campaign to highlight the security dangers of EU membership, including the possibility of Turkey’s accession to the EU, this weekend.

However, the leave campaign also believes that, if it can keep the headline polls close, a relatively poor turnout among Labour voters who support remain could deliver it victory. The findings came as Johnson, who has been posing increasingly as a prime minister in waiting, told the Observer that he believed no genuine “liberal internationalist” could support the EU.

The former mayor of London joined forces with Gove, the justice secretary, to suggest that a vote for Brexit could deliver improved social justice. He added: “The impact of EU-enforced uncontrolled immigration to the UK – made worse by the euro crisis – has been to depress the wages of the low-paid, while fat cat FTSE-100 chiefs have seen their pay packets soar to 150 times the average pay of their workforce. It is time that liberals everywhere saw the EU for what it is: essentially a stitch-up between the very biggest corporations, their lobbyists and the commission to frame regulation in such a way as to keep out the competition, especially … from start-ups and innovators.”

The poll by Opinium also issued a different set of figures using an alternative methodology to try to reflect the fact that online samples are sometimes seen to over-represent socially conservative respondents, who may be more likely to favour Brexit.

With the adjustments to the make-up of the sample surveyed, remain keeps its lead. Opinium found that 43% of UK adults said they would vote to remain in the EU in a referendum, while 41% would vote to leave the EU and 14% don’t know how they would vote. Generally the polls show an electorate split by social class, region and party political affiliation. The more affluent favour staying in the EU, while older people are typically more likely to back Brexit. London is a stronghold of the remain camp, while the East Midlands tends toward leaving. Areas such as north-west England are more evenly poised.

Nearly half (48%) say Cameron should resign if Brexit occurs, 32% that he should not. Remain voters are evenly split (42% either way) while leave voters overwhelmingly say he should resign (65% to 22%).

Technically Speaking:

Short Term Trend:                            Flat
Medium Term Trend:                      Bullish
Long Term Trend:                            Flat
Long Stochastics:                                        Overbought
Short Stochastics:                                       Overbought
Vix:                                                    Very Low/Market Risk High
McC. Oscillator:                               Bullish
A/D Line:                                           Bullish

The Vix, Slow Stochastics and Fast Stochastics indicate that the market is very much overbought with risk growing with every upward move. However, given that the McClennan Oscillator is in its mid-trading range, prices may easily move higher without too much resistance.

Given the risk involved with the upcoming Brexit poll it is hard to see Janet Yellen doing anything to rock the boat for the British Prime Minister David Cameron. Thus I would expect her to hold on any interest rise this June. This realisation, should it become generally accepted over the next week or so, could definitely propel the market to new highs.

On the other hand a high volume break below the 17,000 level on the Dow Industrial would indicate that the next leg downward has commenced. Should this happen I reckon it could be very ugly indeed given the compressed nature of the 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages at this price point and given that there is no real technical  support until the 15,000 price level where a double bottom occurred earlier this year.

Charts Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Christopher Quiqley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin, Ireland. He holds a Bachelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the stock market in 1989 in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He has developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last two decades as a result of research, study and experience. This system marries fundamental analysis with technical analysis and focuses on momentum, value and pension strategies.

Since 2007 Mr. Quigley has written over 80 articles which have been published on popular web   sites based in California, New York, London and Dublin.

Mr. Quigley is now lives in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2016 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules