Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016 Jun 16, 2016 - 05:41 PM GMT

By: John_Lee

Stock-Markets

The roulette game all started in the fall of 2014, about 2 years after Chairman Xi Jinping came to power and became the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.

Xi Jinping had campaigned for socialist economic reform, including a sweeping anti-corruption drive, cutting excess production capacity, tightening of housing credit, and clamping down on gaming in Macau. Public feedback was initially positive. However, largely as a result of those policies, Beijing was facing an increasingly grim economic growth outlook which was the worst in more than two decades*.


Manufacturing activity in China slowed along with the global economy and the construction sector stagnated.

*Source: Tradingeconomics.com

In late 2014, the light bulb came on – someone in the higher echelon ranks thought the stock market could be a penicillin to the economic and social malaise. The stock market is easily accessible to the public and can serve to fill/occupy their free time. A rising stock market provides a desirable savings vehicle (as opposed to low yield bonds), enables listed companies to raise capital and invest, while local governments and banks can piggy-back on the taxes and fees generated.

As reported by China Daily Asia on September 5, 2014:

“State-run media in China are trying to do something the securities industry has failed to accomplish for much of the past three years: get the world's biggest population to buy more stocks.

The Xinhua News Agency published at least eight articles this week advocating equity investing after similar stories appeared in the People's Daily newspaper and on State-run television last month, part of what Everbright Securities Co said is an increased government push to bolster the market. Authorities have also cut trading fees, made it cheaper to open new accounts and organized investor presentations by the biggest listed banks…”[1]

[1] “State media campaign aimed at getting investors to buy equities” China Daily Asia (September 5, 2014).

The banks started margin lending, a practice that’s has been prohibited since 2007.

The results speaks for themselves:

Source: Stockcharts.com

In the aftermath, the government stepped in and since July 2015 purchased stocks, banned short selling, banned IPOs, and restricted insider selling. All this did was drive speculators away from the market with volumes collapsing.

In early 2016, as Chinese economic growth and fundamentals continued to worsen, the government turned back to what had worked during the 2009 slump: aggressive lending in the property and infrastructure sectors in Q1 2016 provided relief, and revived the housing market and construction industry. It also sparked speculation away from the stock market and into the iron ore/steel commodity sector.

According to an article in the Financial Times:

“The commodities futures market is the most equal in China,” avows one successful trader, before admitting to one drawback: “It’s difficult to meet women.”[2]

[2] “Chinese retail investors throw global commodities into a tailspin” Financial Times (May 6, 2016).

Trading commodities in China — also the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials — is relatively straightforward.

To set up a commodity futures brokerage account in China, an individual needs to provide their identity, in some cases with a video verification, and bank details. A deposit is needed to start trading.

Morgan Stanley estimates 160,000 new accounts were set up online between July 2015 and February 2016. Individual investors tend to be most active when markets are rising, and have dominated past rallies in Chinese futures.

The following chart speaks to Chinese investment speculation:

Source: Business Insider Australia

According to an article published by Business Insider Australia on March 9:

“…the equivalent of 977 million tonnes were traded on the Dalian exchange on Wednesday [March 9, 2016]. Not only was it the highest daily turnover on record, it exceeded the entire amount of physical iron ore imported by China over the past year.

In the 12 months to February, China imported a total of 962.6 million tonnes of an iron ore, the largest year-on-year total on record.

If the level of turnover recorded in Dalian futures on Wednesday was to be replicated over the course of any one typical trading year, it would equate to around 240 billion tonnes of ore.”[3]

[3] “China is becoming a nation of iron ore traders” Business Insider Australia (March 9, 2016).

The annual world production of iron ore was 3.22 billion tonnes in 2014, according to Wikipedia.

The government stepped in, and since May, has raised margin requirements, increased trading fees, and imposed daily movement limits. Excessive speculation on property and commodity sectors, and the undesired restarting of marginal iron ore mines and steel mills have prompted the government to issue a warning on the state-owned People's Daily which said, on Monday, May 9, that China's economic trend will be "L-shaped", rather than "U-shaped", and definitely not "V-shaped". Speculators promptly retreated from the iron ore market resulting in crashing price and volume.

The following chart shows where speculators turned to:


Source: Investing.com

According to a Bitcoin Magazine article dated May 31, 2016:

“Huobi and OKCoin, the two largest Chinese exchanges that now account for some 92 percent of Bitcoin global trading by (self-reported) volume, both reported almost double the usual trading volume over the past weekend. BTCC, China's third largest exchange, also reported a surge in bitcoin trading volume, setting a new record on its Pro Exchange.”[4]

[4] J. Williams, “Bitcoin Price Soars as Chinese Investors Look for Safe Haven From Devaluation and Capital Controls” Bitcoin Magazine (May 31, 2016).

Huobi’s CEO, Leon Li said that: “More and more Chinese investors and their hot money need a new investment market, and a convenient alternative investment like Bitcoin is easy to be accepted by the traders.”[5]

[5] Ibid.

Given its impossible to curb bitcoin trading, and with limited bitcoin supply, I would not be surprised at all if Bitcoin approach US$1,000+/BTC in the near term.

Curiously, if a crypto-currency without intrinsic value can muster such popularity, why not speculate on gold and silver? Particularly silver, as it stands out as a “poor man’s gold”, ideal for action seeking, trigger-happy Chinese investors.

Indeed, open interest in silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been steadily increasing this year, with open interest now roughly equal and equivalent in size to that of COMEX.

Shanghai Futures Exchange Silver contract open interest:

Source: http://www.shfe.com.cn

The contract size is 15kg, roughly 500oz, or 1/10 of the COMEX silver contract size (5,000 oz). The open interest ballooned from less than 200,000 contracts in 2012 to over 600,000 since April 2016.

COMEX silver open interest (‘000):

Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

What is the take-away?

1. The world is welcoming a new class of investors numbering in the tens of millions with hundreds of billions in speculative dollars.

2. Those investors may prefer metals over stocks and bonds.

3. When those finicky investors arrive, they will create a torrential wave.

They may not arrive at silver this month or the next, but I soon suspect they will buy into this compelling, easy-to-understand investment choice. I own physical silver and manage a company engaged in silver exploration.

Source: Investing.com

Silver traded today at 18 months high.

John Lee, CFA
Executive Chairman, Prophecy Development Corp.

jlee@prophecydev.com

John Lee, CFA is an accredited investor with over 2 decades of investing experience in metals and mining equities. Mr. Lee joined Prophecy Development Corp (www.prophecydev.com) in 2009 as the Company's Chairman. Under John Lee's leadership, Prophecy raised over $100 million through Toronto Stock Exchange and acquired a portfolio of silver assets in Bolivia, coal assets in Mongolia, and a Titanium project in Canada. John Lee is a Rice University graduate with degrees in economics and engineering.

About Prophecy Development Corp.

Prophecy Development Corp. is a Toronto Stock Exchange-listed (TSX: PCY) Canadian company focusing on mining and energy projects in Mongolia, Bolivia and Canada. Further information on Prophecy can be found at www.prophecydev.com.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in