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Why 95% of Traders Fail

Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce

ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 10, 2016 - 04:58 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The leaked lewd audio tape from a decade ago has been having a devastating impact on what was an already a badly damaged Trump campaign that has been on a downward trend trajectory after Trump lost the 1st debate, where virtually each day has tended to bring forward more bad news as the mainstream press digs deeper into Trumps past.


"I moved on her like a *****, but I couldn't get there. and she was married."

"I better use some Tic Tac's just in case I start kissing her."

"You know I'm automatically attracted to beautiful - I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. Just kiss. I don't even wait."

"And when you're a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the p ussy. You can do anything."

Whilst the opinion polls still show little shift with Hillary on 45% and Trump on 41%. However, the betting markets such as betfair are signaling that the Trump campaign was is in full meltdown mode. For instance just prior to the 1st Presidential debate Trump had rallied to his best standing of 2.88, immediately following the 1st debate that had widened to 3.35, and peaking at 4.05 just prior to the VP debate. Post the VP debate the odds had marginally shifted in Trumps favour by falling to 3.80. But then after the tax return and audio tape leaks, all of that hard work had been undone sending Trump's betfair price to stand at 5.7 against Hillary on 1.26 going into the 2nd debate that I saw in the openign few minutes leap to 6.2.

However as the debate went on Trump managed to get weare Hillary down and score a few good one liners such as that if he was President then Hillary would be in jail. He also managed to put Hillary on the defensive a few times such as over the 33,000 deleted emails. The end result is that Trump managed to stem the haemooraging as the lasted betfair price puts Trump on 5.2, a recovery of sorts but a long way to go to get anywhere Hillarys standing of 1.27

US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market

Date Time (BST) Hillary Trump Comments
25th Sept   1.58 3.05 Trending in Trumps favour
27th Sept 2am 1.57 2.88 Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate
27th Sept 4am 1.44 3.35 Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost.
30th Sept 3am 1.45 3.45 Odds continuing to move against Trump election win
30th Sept 9pm 1.39 3.75 Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds
1st Oct 2pm 1.37 3.85 Still little sign of Trump recovery
4th Oct 9pm 1.35 4.05 Trump continues losing trend
5th Oct 5am 1.36 3.90 Pence wins VP debate
7th Oct 5pm 1.38 3.8 Trump recovery continues
8th Oct 12pm 1.32 4.8 Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women
9th Oct 8pm 1.25 5.7 Trump campaign in free fall
10th Oct 4.30am 1.27 5.2 Trump wins 2nd Debate.

So going into the second debate Trump now literally has nothing to lose so we can see him come out all guns blazing which at the very least ensures it will be very, very entertaining to watch and give much material for the satirists. Though whether it will work or not we will find out in the betting markets shortly after the debate for Trump currently has a huge mountain to climb.

In my most recent video analysis I gave several suggestions of what Trump could do to reverse his losing streak going into the second debate and where I warned of his achilles heel of his tax returns and the Trump organisation that lacked financial transparency which if revealed could blow his chances of winning the election as illustrated by the subsequent NYT story. Whilst step 2 was to stop attacking women and minorities which the audio tape leak worsens his standing in respect of.

For the reality of what a a now diminishing chances of a Trump Presidency would actually look like see -

My forecast of several weeks ago concluded who most probably would win the election to become the next US President, which I said I would revisit closer to election day, and which given what has subsequently coming to pass I will now definitely be doing so.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

despe906
10 Oct 16, 09:26
Amazing turn

What an amazing turn. Trump sat down as if someone threw at him a bucket of dirty mop water. After watching Alec Baldwin's parodies, I didn't believe I could look at Trump without a grin. And other buckets were soon thrown, because of what he said about grabbing. But a couple of minutes later, Hillary were sitting, with a fake smile on her face, while Donald T. was giving lectures and judging her. He even mentionned G. Soros. He even said 'bigly' again. Why didn't he say, that it is in Hillary's interest to keep ISIS alive and to bring terrorists to the US? Which is true.


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