Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 10, 2016 - 04:58 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The leaked lewd audio tape from a decade ago has been having a devastating impact on what was an already a badly damaged Trump campaign that has been on a downward trend trajectory after Trump lost the 1st debate, where virtually each day has tended to bring forward more bad news as the mainstream press digs deeper into Trumps past.
"I moved on her like a *****, but I couldn't get there. and she was married."
"I better use some Tic Tac's just in case I start kissing her."
"You know I'm automatically attracted to beautiful - I just start kissing them. It's like a magnet. Just kiss. I don't even wait."
"And when you're a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the p ussy. You can do anything."
Whilst the opinion polls still show little shift with Hillary on 45% and Trump on 41%. However, the betting markets such as betfair are signaling that the Trump campaign was is in full meltdown mode. For instance just prior to the 1st Presidential debate Trump had rallied to his best standing of 2.88, immediately following the 1st debate that had widened to 3.35, and peaking at 4.05 just prior to the VP debate. Post the VP debate the odds had marginally shifted in Trumps favour by falling to 3.80. But then after the tax return and audio tape leaks, all of that hard work had been undone sending Trump's betfair price to stand at 5.7 against Hillary on 1.26 going into the 2nd debate that I saw in the openign few minutes leap to 6.2.
However as the debate went on Trump managed to get weare Hillary down and score a few good one liners such as that if he was President then Hillary would be in jail. He also managed to put Hillary on the defensive a few times such as over the 33,000 deleted emails. The end result is that Trump managed to stem the haemooraging as the lasted betfair price puts Trump on 5.2, a recovery of sorts but a long way to go to get anywhere Hillarys standing of 1.27
US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market
| Date | Time (BST) | Hillary | Trump | Comments |
| 25th Sept | 1.58 | 3.05 | Trending in Trumps favour | |
| 27th Sept | 2am | 1.57 | 2.88 | Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate |
| 27th Sept | 4am | 1.44 | 3.35 | Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost. |
| 30th Sept | 3am | 1.45 | 3.45 | Odds continuing to move against Trump election win |
| 30th Sept | 9pm | 1.39 | 3.75 | Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds |
| 1st Oct | 2pm | 1.37 | 3.85 | Still little sign of Trump recovery |
| 4th Oct | 9pm | 1.35 | 4.05 | Trump continues losing trend |
| 5th Oct | 5am | 1.36 | 3.90 | Pence wins VP debate |
| 7th Oct | 5pm | 1.38 | 3.8 | Trump recovery continues |
| 8th Oct | 12pm | 1.32 | 4.8 | Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women |
| 9th Oct | 8pm | 1.25 | 5.7 | Trump campaign in free fall |
| 10th Oct | 4.30am | 1.27 | 5.2 | Trump wins 2nd Debate. |
So going into the second debate Trump now literally has nothing to lose so we can see him come out all guns blazing which at the very least ensures it will be very, very entertaining to watch and give much material for the satirists. Though whether it will work or not we will find out in the betting markets shortly after the debate for Trump currently has a huge mountain to climb.
In my most recent video analysis I gave several suggestions of what Trump could do to reverse his losing streak going into the second debate and where I warned of his achilles heel of his tax returns and the Trump organisation that lacked financial transparency which if revealed could blow his chances of winning the election as illustrated by the subsequent NYT story. Whilst step 2 was to stop attacking women and minorities which the audio tape leak worsens his standing in respect of.
For the reality of what a a now diminishing chances of a Trump Presidency would actually look like see -
My forecast of several weeks ago concluded who most probably would win the election to become the next US President, which I said I would revisit closer to election day, and which given what has subsequently coming to pass I will now definitely be doing so.
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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