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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Countdown: An E-Wave Perspective

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Nov 07, 2016 - 05:44 AM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon


"In order to understand where we are now and where are going, we must first understand where we have been." ~ Professor Jennifer Cunningham

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." ~ Mark Twain

Going back and reevaluating the wave counts going back to the founding of our country, I realized I had made a mistake and that is we are in the final 5th of a 5th of a 5th which, itself, may be a millennial 3rd wave going back through European statistics to around 1000 C.E.

This 5th wave (called the Grand Super Cycle) started around 1776 and Super Cycle Wave 1 of that wave ended around the time of the Jacksonian presidency in 1837, when he challenged the European central bankers and we fell into 2 separate depressions in the 1830's and '40's and then the 1850's, creating Wave 2 (a flat), ending in 1857. Super cycle wave 2 preceded the Civil War and was instrumental in causing it. According to the Fourth Turning, this war was a crisis war for our nation and part of the normal 80-year cycle of crisis wars.

Super Cycle Wave 3 ended in 1928/29 and was about 71/72 years in length. Contrary to popular thought, Super Cycle Wave 4 did not end until February 1942. (A similar wave count occurred in 1988 ending Primary wave 4 of Cycle Wave 5. I studied the internal waves, and Primary Wave 4 did not end until November 1988, not late 1987 as most believe. Robert Prechter made a mistake in assuming that the 1932-37 up wave was Wave 1, it was part of Super Cycle Wave 4).

Super Cycle Wave 5 began in February 1942 and counts Cycle Wave 1: March 1966; Cycle Wave 2: December 1974; Cycle Wave 3 ending in March 2000 with Cycle Wave 4 ending in March 2009. We are in the final Cycle Wave 5 and within Primary Wave 4 of that wave. Primary Wave 4 should end around late September or early October 2017 near 1800 on the S&P 500 according to the chart below.  Primary Wave 5 should end in late November 2018 according to my best guess around 3300 on the S&P 500!

Many people like Harry Dent believe the BIG crash is starting sooner than that, but they don't understand Elliott Wave Theory like I do. He knows that near the year 2020, there is an important bottom due, so kudos to him and his work, I really respect him! 2020/21 is also the expected Benner's Cycle bottom!

The 88-year great grandfather cycle has worked really well. The post WWI recession of 1920/21 adding 88 years equals 2008/09. According to the same cycle, we should be seeing a final top in late 2017, but my Elliott Wave work suggests it should come a year late (due to Central Bank manipulation, or the fact that we are living longer or both). That means we all have about 2 years to prepare for the worst crash since the Great Depression and then World War III!

The chart below is of the Dow Jones Industrials (quarterly bars) from the 1910's to present. I believe we are finishing a Millennial Wave 3 from about the year 1000 C.E.. The reason I believe this, is that the equality of time between the three Grand Super Cycles has been approximately the same and it seems to have the power of a 3rd wave. Grand Super Cycle Wave 1 began around 1000 and ended around 1350 C.E, (350 years) the GSC Wave 2 was about 50 years long and ended near 1400 (caused no doubt by the Black Plague). GSC Wave 3 started around 1400 and ended with the South Sea Bubble in England and Mississippi land speculation in France in 1720. GSC Wave 3 was about 320 years long. GSC Wave 4 ended around the 1770-80's and was about 50 to 60 years long. We have been in GSC Wave 5 ever since.

What happens after 2018 is just a guess. If I'm right and we are ending Millennial Wave 3, Millennial Wave 4 should be about 100 years in length based on the past. Wave 4's in the past have often times been brutal in the early stages too (the 1929-42 period saw the worst in the first 22%, of the move down [2018+22 = 2040]). GSC Wave 4 from 1720 to 1770/80 really had little recovery from the earlier speculation excesses and basically flat lined for 50-60 years. Super Cycle Wave 4 from 1928-42 (Super Cycle Wave 3 actually ended in 1928, the top in 1929 was irregular) saw the worst part of the crash early on from 1929-32 over about 2.75 years. The SC Wave 4 time period actually saw two great economic depressions: 1929-33/34 and 1937/38-42 with an intervening prosperity period that included the WPA work programs.

Nostradamus talks about a period of precarious peace after WWIII and a great leader from America born near the end of WWII who raises a great army and ends the Moslem army occupation of Europe (Islam is already entrenched in Europe, so it shouldn't be too hard to overwhelm the continent). When he dies, basically all hell breaks loose. I also remember a prophecy about a great leader who comes out of Germany, but would be of Bourbon descent. He would have wavy hair and a hawkish nose (I will leave speculation of who this might be to the reader; I have my own idea).

I am a religious liberal, but a moral conservative. For too long now, the Luciferian power wielders in this world have blinded and controlled both sides in a false left/right paradigm using the Hegelian Dialectic: Thesis + Antithesis = Synthesis or Whole. The Apostle Paul speaks about a time in the future when men will call evil good and good evil. This happens at both extremes: The conservative right and liberal left with the thinker left none-the-wiser.

Just by observing the liberal led media and those who follow the mantra (drink the kool-aid so to speak), one can see this dialectic in process. Conversely, someone in my church might label me "of the devil" because I use astrology to help me understand the markets or what's going on in society as a whole. Another facet of this dialectic in process might be the Church's condemnation of Nostradamus or Edgar Cayce for that matter. Quite another could be eschatological (future) interpretations of scriptural prophecies that have no basis in truth or solid exegesis, but rather through nefarious forces, which purposely mislead us in order to control us. Aye, there's the rub. We only have ourselves to blame for the mess we are in, don't we?

"We have met the enemy and he is us." ~ Pogo

"All it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing." ~ Edmund Burke

Lucifer (this includes those who follow him) conquers us through our ignorance and superstition. We are told we have a right to our opinions, but it begs the question do we really have that right when we have not earned it through careful and meticulous study?

Most conservatives can see right through the liberal media's lies, but they can't see their own shortcomings often times because I believe they have already formed their opinions too early in life. Truth is an ongoing search, not something found, but rather a process of finding. I am 62 years old and I have barely begun to scratch the surface of my quest for truth. I can tell you this: I tend to form my opinions slowly over time and am always ready to be wrong if someone or something else can prove me wrong.

The fight between good and evil: God Almighty and Lucifer is real one. Don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise. I have experienced many supernatural things in my lifetime. I know better. Because of this, it is incumbent upon me to make a difference in this world; to be one of many to help preserve the earth and the knowledge of these times for those of our posterity who will no doubt survive the coming Millennial 4th Wave calamities and usher in the Millennial reign of Christ and the coming Millennial 5th Wave.

In the not too distant future, I'm starting a new monthly newsletter called "Countdown". In this newsletter, I shall endeavor to help folks stay informed to current events and how to survive the precarious times to which we are fast heading into. It will involve a sense of community, not heading off into the mountains into your bomb shelter type of thing. I shall also endeavor to teach people the proper and exegetical interpretations of scriptural prophecy, and what they mean in our lifetime as well as other prophecies outside of the Bible. I am also a singer and songwriter. Music is always a great motivator.

My wife and I wrote the popular Tea Party rally song "We Aint' Goin' Away" with Bruce Bellott in 2010.

You may go to to listen to the 12 song album.

Here is the link to Bruce's video:

Please e-mail me if you are interested in possibly subscribing to the newsletter.

Now onto the election and what I see as possible in the coming weeks. I have been saying since last week that I believe that from what I'm observing that there may be a false sense that Hillary has won the race and the stock market will rally into the following week. Already, the stock market is way oversold, especially on a money flow basis. Lots of money has been taken out of the stock market in the last two weeks, but at the same time it has only fallen about 3% on average. This is very strange behavior indeed! Could it be that the FED has held it up on purpose to try to keep Hillary in the game?

It looks to me that we are still in Wave B of a larger Wave B that should finish around December 15-20, 2016. Of that wave, a Wave (y) to the upside is due [from wave (x)]. The big question is: how far up? That is the unknown factor.

Right now, I would say that a minimum move up would be back to where wave 'c' of (x) began and that is near 2154/55. After that: 2169/70, then 2202/03, then 2114. This should occur by around November 15th near the super moon and 16 TD top. Chart below shows the minimum move.

This chart of the QQQ shows a broadening top formation that could easily make a new high by mid month:

We shorted GDX with DUST on the last trade making about 5% after getting whipsawed twice around the FED meeting. We went long with NUGT around 24.90 GDX, so we are up slightly. I expect to see 26 plus early next week before falling into mid month. We'll see.

Please do not trade my forecasts without a subscription. Remember, the forecast may change as information changes. That is why it is incumbent upon you to stay informed to those changes by having a subscription.

Please check out my website at for price specials.

Please check out my blog at for periodic updates.

We are now on Twitter.

Brad Gudgeon
Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look at

Copyright 2016, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.

Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

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