Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Stock Market Increasing Technical Weakness - 22nd July 19
What Could The Next Gold Rally Look Like? - 22nd July 19
Stock Markets Setting Up For A Volatility Explosion – Are You Ready? - 22nd July 19
Anatomy of an Impulse Move in Gold and Silver Precious Metals - 22nd July 19
What you Really need to Know about the Stock Market - 22nd July 19
Has Next UK Financial Crisis Just Started? Bank Accounts Being Frozen - 21st July 19
Silver to Continue Lagging Gold, Will Struggle to Overcome $17 - 21st July 19
What’s With all the Weird Weather?  - 21st July 19
Halifax Stopping Customers Withdrawing Funds Online - UK Brexit Banking Crisis Starting? - 21st July 19
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 - 20th July 19
MICROSOFT Cortana, Azure AI Platform Machine Intelligence Stock Investing Video - 20th July 19
Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences - 20th July 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis - 20th July 19
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Santa Trump US Stock Market Uptrend Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Nov 20, 2016 - 04:10 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2164. After a bounce to SPX 2171 on Monday the market pulled back to 2156. On Tuesday the SPX hit 2181, but this was followed by a pullback to 2171 on Wednesday. On Thursday/Friday the SPX made a new uptrend high at 2190, then dipped to end the week at 2182. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.40%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: import prices, capacity utilization and the WLEI. On the uptick: retail sales, export prices, NY/Philly FED, business inventories, the CPI, housing starts, building permits, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, more housing reports and the Thanksgiving holiday.


LONG TERM: uptrend

Some observations. Since the election the DOW, NAZ, R2K, SOX and TRAN have all made new yearly highs. The DOW and R2K highs were also all time highs. The NDX, NYSE and the SPX have been the laggards. While the NDX and SPX made all time new highs earlier in the year, the NYSE has still not made a higher high than 2015. Neither has any foreign index that we track with the exception of the FTSE. The NYSE continues to act more like an international index, than a US index.

After a long term downtrend low in February 2016, the first since March 2009, the market embarked on a long term uptrend. Since 2011 did not quantify as a long term trend change, and the May 2015 – February 2016 decline was only 16%, we have labeled the long term trends as follows. Primary I May 2015, Primary II February 2016, and Primary III underway. From the February low the SPX has rallied to 2111, did a three wave decline to 1992, rallied to 2194, done another three wave decline to 2084, and is now rallying in a new uptrend.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We labeled the SPX 2111 high Intermediate wave i, and the 1992 low Intermediate wave ii. Then the SPX 2194 high Minor wave 1 of Int. iii, and the 2084 low Minor wave 2. The current uptrend should be Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave iii. Since Primary waves unfold in five Major waves, you can see we are in the very early stages of Primary III. In fact, only in the subdivisions of Major wave 1.

At the Minor wave 2 low of SPX 2084 the market displayed the usual characteristics of a downtrend low. The daily/weekly RSI were quite oversold, and the hourly RSI had a positive divergence. Since that low the market has rallied 106 points, 5.1%, in just two weeks. And a few of the earlier mentioned indices have done even better: TRAN +9%, SOX +9% and R2K +13%. The recent action certainly looks like the kick off to a third degree wave.

As each new bull market unfolds, and we believe this is a new bull market, it develops its own characteristics. Thus far this bull market has displayed two month uptrends followed by multi-month corrections. As noted last weekend it looks similar to the 1984 period. Since this uptrend began this month we should expect it to last until at least January. Santa rally underway! Also the first two uptrends were 300 and 200 points respectively. This suggests this uptrend should be about 300 points, and reach the SPX 2380’s before it concludes. Medium term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Early this week we noticed another short term count unfolding, and it has worked out quite well thus far. From the SPX 2084 downtrend low we counted four waves up: 2147-2125-2182-2152, with a fifth wave underway. The fifth wave was counted as follows: 2171-2156-2181-2172-2190. This entire advance, SPX 2084-2190, is only Minute wave i of Minor wave 3. There will be five Minute waves during this Minor 3 uptrend.

Approaching the high, we noted on Thursday, there were negative divergences on the hourly/daily RSI. This typically occurs during a top of some degree. We also noted, due to the configuration of the waves, there was three resistance levels overhead: SPX 2194, SPX 2200 and SPX 2209. Two levels and then the 2212 pivot range. When the rally does end the pullback could take the SPX back to the 2150’s for Minute wave ii. After that Minute iii should kick in to the upside. Short term support is at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2151, with resistance at SPX 2194, SPX 2200 and the 2212 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week under neutral.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower but ended the week mixed.

European markets were mixed and ended with a 0.3% loss.

The DJ World index ended the week -0.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue their downtrend and lost 1.2%.

Crude appears to be uptrending again and gained 6.8%.

Gold continues its downtrend and lost 1.3%.

The USD reached 13 year highs while gaining 2.4% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: existing home sales. Wednesday: weekly jobless claims, durable goods, the FHFA, consumer sentiment, new home sales and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: Thanksgiving holiday. Friday: markets open but closing at 1pm. Happy holidays!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2016 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules