Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Investing for Max Commodity Market Profits During a Trump US Presidency

Commodities / Investing 2017 Dec 28, 2016 - 01:28 PM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf

Commodities

By listening to President-elect Trump we can anticipate the effect his administration will have on the US economy. 
Here is what we know:  Mr. Trump plans to beef up the military, and improve US infrastructure, including a wall at the southern border.   
While there are other priorities, such as improving on healthcare, just his two main goals will require many billions of dollars. 
Being a successful businessman is his asset, and no doubt the new president will surprise us with funding that will be new and novel, such as enticing US companies with overseas assets to repatriate those funds and put them to work in the USA. 


Nevertheless, we can be assured that whatever new sources of revenue the new administration comes up with, government spending will increase and so will the Federal Deficit.
The total US Federal Deficit will top 20 trillion before long.  This will be accomodated with more printing press money.  Congress and the Senate are likely to go along with spending plans.  Already the ongoing monetary inflation is causing price inflation, and the expectation is that this price inflation will accelerate.

Our ’investing for maximum profits’ therefore must include stocks and commodities that will grow during a period of price inflation. 
Charts are courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated.
          

Featured is the monthly US CPI chart.  Even though this official government Consumer Price Index is ‘tweeked’ to make it appear as benign as possible, the trend is clearly rising higher. 


Featured is the Chapwood index of price inflation in 10 US cities.  This index www.chapwoodindex.com tracks items that are used or consumed on a daily basis, compared to the components of the index used by the government, which are ‘massaged’ to produce a desired outcome.  From these two charts (and especially the Chapwood chart) it is obvious that price inflation is ‘here to stay’. 

Following are some charts that feature commodities which will benefit from increased inflation.  Our personal portfolio is centered around these commodities and this portfolio has increased by over 52%, during the past 12 months.  In order to stay ahead of price inflation, our assets need to grow faster than the rate of inflation.

      
      

     
Featured is the Palladium chart.  Palladium is used in catalytic converters and price inflation will continue to cause the price of Palladium to increase as people decide to buy a new car before the next price increase.  This chart is bullish, as can be seen by the rising channel.  The moving averages are in positive alignment (green oval), and rising, along with the supporting indicators.  Price is turning up at the green arrow. 

       

Featured is the copper chart.  Price broke out from a large triangle, at the blue arrow. Up volume during the breakout was the highest in years.  The rush into copper appears to have been somewhat over-done and the pullback from 2.75 has just now found support at 2.45, where price carved out a strong upside reversal on Tuesday (green arrow).   The moving averages are in positive alignment and rising (green oval).  The supporting indicators are ready to turn positive, including the important A/D line at the bottom.  In any event it is obvious from this chart that copper is benefiting from price inflation.  (One of the stocks in our “Model Portfolio” – Western Copper – increased by 50% for a while on Tuesday).
       

This chart is courtesy Kitco.com and it shows Zinc to be in a bull market.  New spending on improving the US infrastructure will benefit zinc along with copper. 
       
   
Featured is the lumber chart.  The trend is higher, as can be seen by the blue channel.  A close above the blue arrow will tell us that the uptrend is ongoing.   The supporting indicators are ready to turn positive. 
       
       

Featured is the Dow Jones US steel index.  Price has been in a bull market since January, and the Andrews Pitchfork analysis supports the rising trend.  The supporting indicators are back at support levels.  The moving averages are in positive alignment and rising.  
         

          
      
Featured is GNX the commodity index.  Price has been rising all year, while carving out a bullish Advancing Right Angled Triangle (ARAT).  The supporting indicators are positive and the moving averages are in positive alignment and rising.  The breakout at the blue arrow turns the trend back to bullish, with a target at 690!
   

Featured is the index that compares silver to gold, with two moving averages.  The silver chart is at the top.  The blue arrows point to bullish crossovers (blue above red) that turn out to be buying signals for silver.  The purple arrows point to bearish crossovers (red above blue), that turned out to be sell signals.  The blue arrow at the right points to a buy signal that is developing.  The close-up chart at the right shows this in detail.   Because silver is sought by investors as a hedge against price inflation, silver will benefit from the new presidency.

  
This chart courtesy goldchartsrus.com and annotated by I.M. Vronsky at Gold-eagle.com, shows gold as a percentage of financial assets. 

There  are at least four reasons why gold will rise again:

  1.  Protection against inflation.
  2.  Reaction against Federal Deficits
  3.  A beneficiary of negative ‘real interest rates’, currently at – 1.22%
  4.  Several billion new investors since 1980.  Most of these reside in Asia, where gold is appreciated as a ‘store of value’.


This chart courtesy Goldchartsrus.com shows the ‘real rate’ of interest.  The three month rate is -1.22%, while using government supplied numbers.  When actual cost of living numbers (such as the Chapwood index) are used, the ‘real rate’ is much lower.  Gold thrives when ‘real rate’ are negative.

Peter Degraaf is NOT responsible for your trading decisions.  Please do your own due diligence. 

By Peter Degraaf

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report on the markets for his many subscribers. For a sample issue send him an E-mail at itiswell@cogeco.net , or visit his website at www.pdegraaf.com where you will find many long-term charts, as well as an interesting collection of Worthwhile Quotes that make for fascinating reading.

© 2016 Copyright Peter Degraaf - All Rights Reserved

DISCLAIMER:Please do your own due diligence.  Investing involves taking risks.  I am not responsible for your investment decisions.

Peter Degraaf Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules