Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction - 11th Mar 19
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived - 11th Mar 19
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - 11th Mar 19
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets - 11th Mar 19
The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game - 11th Mar 19
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? - 11th Mar 19
Turkey Holiday Bazaar Extreme Jewelry Price Haggling - Fethiye Market - 11th Mar 19
Are You Ready for the Next Big Move in Gold? - 10th Mar 19
Taylor Wimpey Reports £811m in Profits boosted by Help-to-Buy - 10th Mar 19
SPX Big US Stocks Fundamentals - 10th Mar 19
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Video - 9th Mar 19
Various Stock Market Indicators are Plunging. Run for the Hills! - 9th Mar 19
Unsecured Debt hits £15,400 per UK Household - 9th Mar 19
QE4EVER Stock Market 2019 - 8th Mar 19
The Real New Deal - 8th Mar 19
How High Cost Credit Affects Financially Unstable Families - 8th Mar 19
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - 8th Mar 19
Stock Market Downward Reversal? Stocks Still Relatively Close to Their Recent Highs - 8th Mar 19
Gold and the Political Theater: Is The Tail Wagging the Dog? - 8th Mar 19
Is Recession Near? - 8th Mar 19
Consumer Behavior: What you need to know to read your Audience - 8th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - 7th Mar 19
Millennial Home Buyers Not as Active as Boomers Were in US Property Market - 7th Mar 19
KIND Elevates Nut Butter Category with a Wholesome Recipe - 7th Mar 19
Brexit Does Not Stop Bitcoin’s Growth in the UK - 7th Mar 19
How Private Sector Debt Bubble Could Trigger the Next Financial Crisis - 7th Mar 19
What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Telling Us - Part2 - 7th Mar 19
What Comes After a Trillion in Student Debt? - 7th Mar 19
Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - 7th Mar 19
The Importance of Financial Planning for Companies - 7th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

SPX Stocks Bull Market Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Feb 04, 2017 - 02:07 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The week started at SPX 2295. After a gap down opening Monday the market traded down to SPX 2267 on Tuesday. Then Wednesday’s opening was a gap up, followed by a pullback, then another gap up opening on Friday ending the week at SPX 2297. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed as well. Economic reports for the week were again mostly positive. On the downtick: the Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, construction spending, auto sales, ISM services, the WLEI, plus the unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, pending home sales, Case-Shiller, the ADP, the ISM, NF Payrolls, factory orders, the Q1 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims were lower. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the trade balance, the budget deficit and export/import prices. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

The Primary wave III bull market continues to unfold, but has spent the most part of the last two months trading above and below the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivots. For the year, which is about 5 weeks old, the SPX is up 2.6%. The wave pattern/labeling we have been tracking remains unchanged.

Since we are expecting a relatively long Major wave 1 of Primary III, we started the first waves with an Intermediate labeling i and ii. The second set of waves is a subdivision of Intermediate wave iii: Minor waves 1 and 2. From the Minor 2 low in early November, just before the election, we have been expecting a Minor wave 3 to unfold. Thus far it still looks too short to be all of Minor 3, as it is barely longer than the previous Minor 1 uptrend (216 pts. v 202 pts.). In the meantime while the market sorts itself out there are a couple of more important points that should be noted.

Should the market enter a correction soon we are likely to see only a 5% decline. Should the market clear SPX 2336, the last potential B wave count, then we can expect 1 – 3 years of bull market activity with the SPX reaching 3000+. Should the market drop below SPX 2084, then the B wave has topped and we are likely in a C wave bear market.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend began in early November at SPX 2084. The uptrend has risen for 2 months, which has been the characteristic of the previous impulse uptrends for this bull market. Any new high in the month of February would immediately suggest this uptrend is extending in time and price.

After tracking several potential variations of the short term waves of this uptrend, we settled on two potential counts. The count posted on the chart above suggests only Minute i of Minor 3 completed at SPX 2279, and since then the market has been in an irregular Minute ii correction. This count would require a decline to at least SPX 2234, possibly lower, before ending the correction.

The second count is posted on the DOW charts as noted above. This count suggests Minute i ended at around the same area as the SPX, but Minute ii ended in mid-January. And, the market is currently working its way higher in a Minute iii rally. Thus far it has not been acting like a third wave, and will need to clear SPX 2305 to look more positive. Medium term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The five waves up from the SPX 2084 early-November low on both the SPX and DOW counts looks quite clear. The question that is intriguing most is what has transpired since then. Is the market preparing to break out or break down?

The irregular B count in green suggests the rally has probably topped, or soon will top below SPX 2305, before declining in a small c wave to SPX 2234 or lower. The count posted in orange, which looks more like the count posted on the DOW charts, suggests Minute iii is currently underway and has already completed two smaller Micro waves 1 and 2. The five wave advance for Minute i from SPX 2084-2279 was also five Micro waves. SPX 2305 and SPX 2267 are the key levels for both counts. A drop below SPX 2267 and a correction is likely underway. A breakout above SPX 2305 and the uptrend is extending.

Short term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2301 and the 2321 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week overbought with a slight negative divergence. However, the market needs to decline at least 5 points to put the divergence in play. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.8%.

European markets were also mostly lower and lost 0.6%.

The DJ World index gained 0.2%, and the NYSE gained 0.2% as well.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.2% on the week.

Gold is in an uptrend as well and gained 2.7% on the week.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.8% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: trade deficit and consumer credit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories. Friday: export/import prices, consumer sentiment and the budget deficit. Saturday: a speech from vice chair Fischer in the UK.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules