Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Brexit War! EU Fearing Collapse Set to Stoke Scottish Independence Proxy War - Nadeem_Walayat
2.London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - OilPrice_Com
5.Trump to Fire 50 US Cruise Missiles To Erase Syrian Chemical Attack Air Base, China Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Stock Market Consolidation Time - Rambus_Chartology
7.Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes - James_Quinn
8.Gold in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles- Zeal_LLC
9.The BrExit War - Britain Intelligence Super Power Covert War With the EU - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Marc Faber: Euro to Strengthen, Dollar to Weaken, Gold and Emerging Markets to Outperform - MoneyMetals
Last 7 days
Bifurcated US Stock Market - 29th Apr 17
Damn the Deficits, Huge Trump Tax Cuts Ahead! - 29th Apr 17
Gold Hostage to Stocks - 29th Apr 17
Warren Buffett Hates Gold… But Here’s Five Reasons You Need To Own It - 29th Apr 17
Stock Market Sentiment, Re-Fueled Along the Way - 28th Apr 17
Calling out the Central Bankers - 28th Apr 17
Fed's Third Inetrest Rate Hike and Gold - 28th Apr 17
USD/CAD - Invalidation of Breakout or Further Rally? - 28th Apr 17
What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - 28th Apr 17
Earth Overshoot Day - Human Population Growth - 28th Apr 17
Misunderstanding GDXJ: Why It’s Actually Great News For Junior Miners - 28th Apr 17
What Makes Bitcoin Casinos So Remarkable? - 28th Apr 17
Financial Markets Improvised Explosives - 27th Apr 17
More Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Stocks Get Close To Record High - 27th Apr 17
Elliott Wave Theory: Is Elliott’s Theory Enough? - 27th Apr 17
Billionaire Investor Paul Tudor Jones Says Stock Market Valuation Is “Terrifying” And He Is Right - 26th Apr 17
The Great BrExit Divides - Britain, USA and France - 26th Apr 17
10 Facts That Show Our Taxes Are Worse Than You Thought - 26th Apr 17
What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like - 26th Apr 17
G20: SURPASSING THE 2nd GLOBAL STEEL CRISIS - 26th Apr 17
What A War With North Korea Would Look Like - 25th Apr 17
Pensions Are On The Way Out But Retirement Funds Are Not Working Either - 25th Apr 17
Frank Holmes : Gold Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply - 25th Apr 17
3 Reasons Why “Spring Forward, Fall Back” Also Applies To Gold - 25th Apr 17
SPX may be Aiming at the Cycle Top Resistance - 25th Apr 17
Walmart Stock Extending Higher - Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 25th Apr 17
Google Panics and KILLS YouTube to Appease Mainstream Media and Corporate Advertisers - 25th Apr 17
Gold Price Is 1% Shy of Ripping Higher - 25th Apr 17
Exchange-Traded Funds Make Decisions Easy - 25th Apr 17
Trump Is Among The Institutionally Weakest National Leaders In The World - 25th Apr 17
3 Maps That Explain the Geopolitics of Nuclear Weapons - 25th Apr 17
Risk on Stock Market French Election Euphoria - 24th Apr 17
Fear Campaign Against Americans Continues Nuclear Attack Drills in New York City - 24th Apr 17
Is the Stock Market Bounce Over? - 24th Apr 17
This Could Be One Of the Biggest Winners Of The Electric Car Boom - 24th Apr 17
Le Pen Shifts Political Landscape- The Rise of New French Gaullism  - 24th Apr 17
IMF Says Austerity Is Over - Surplus or Stimulus - 24th Apr 17
EURUSD at a Critical Point in Wave Structure - 23rd Apr 17
Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues - 23rd Apr 17
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book - 23rd Apr 17
Le Pen, Melenchon French Election Stock, Bond and Euro Markets Crash - 22nd Apr 17
Why You Are Not An Investor - 22nd Apr 17
Gold Price Upleg Momentum Building - 22nd Apr 17
Why Now Gold and Silver Precious Metals? - 22nd Apr 17
4 Maps That Signal Central Asia Is at Risk of War - 22nd Apr 17
5 Key Steps For A Comfortable Retirement From Former Wall Street Trader - 22nd Apr 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

SPX Stock Market 1-year Anniversary New Highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Feb 11, 2017 - 03:07 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2297. After a pullback to SPX 2289 on Monday, the market rallied to SPX 2299 on Tuesday. Wednesday’s pullback took the SPX to 2285. Then the market rallied to all-time new highs on Thursday/Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.25%. Economic reports for the week were split. On the downtick: consumer credit/sentiment, import prices and the Q1 GDP estimate. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, export prices, treasury budget, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by FED chair Yellen’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, industrial production and retail sales. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

After weeks of an upper-level consolidation the market broke out to new highs. This extends the current uptrend to 3 months in duration. Making it longer in time, than either of the previous two impulsive uptrends in this bull market. This uptrend is starting to look like a third wave. Third wave uptrends usually take the longest time to unfold and travel the most points as well. Total market breadth made new highs for this bull market, supporting this probable scenario.

The count from the Primary II bear market low in February 2016 remains unchanged. A lengthy Primary III bull market is underway, and we are tracking Major wave 1 of Primary III. This far, Intermediate waves i and ii completed in April and June respectively. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in August and November respectively. Minor wave 3, of Int. iii, is currently underway from the SPX 2084 November low.

The last bearish possibility, for this long term uptrend, is straight ahead at SPX 2336. Once cleared SPX 3000+, over the next one to three years, should be possible.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend began just days before the election in November at SPX 2084. The market rallied, in five waves, to SPX 2279 by mid-December. Then pulled back to SPX 2234 by early-January. Anticipating that this uptrend should be Minor wave 3, we knew it was too short in time and price for that labeling, and labeled the rally and pullback as Minute waves i and ii of Minor 3.

The advance for the rest of January was choppy and only three waves. We then suggested the possibility that it could be an irregular B wave of Minute wave ii. The upside limit for that possibility was SPX 2305. When the market surged past that level this week we eliminated that possibility, and firmed up the Minute ii wave low at SPX 2234. Minute wave iii of Minor 3 clearly appears to be underway.

Our estimate for this uptrend, back in November, was the SPX 2380’s. The current internal wave structure suggests it could be higher. Minute wave i was 194 points (2084-2278). Normally third waves are equal to, or greater than, first waves. This would give us a minimum upside target in the SPX 2420’s. And, that is only if Minute waves iii through v equal Minute i. It could go a lot higher. Medium term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots.

SHORT TERM

While the first two sections of this week’s report are quite bullish, there is still a price obstacle ahead of this market: SPX 2336. This level represents a 1.618 multiplier of the recent bear market decline SPX: 2135-1810. Once cleared the last potential bearish scenario gets eliminated. This is of long term significance.

There is also a medium term significance. We do have an alternate short term wave count that could end the uptrend between the OEW 2321 and 2336 pivots. As noted earlier, third waves are usually quite strong. However, if these two pivots offer as much resistance as the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivots. Then the resulting choppy activity could end this uptrend in that price zone. Something to watch in the weeks ahead.

Putting those caveats aside. Minute wave iii, as labeled above, should currently be in Micro wave 3 from the recent Micro 2 low at SPX 2257 low. Micro wave 1, also in orange, ended at SPX 2282 from the Minute ii SPX 2234 low. This count suggest a powerful move to the upside. However, if the rally fizzles out between those pivots then a correction of about 5% should follow. Short term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Short term momentum ended another negative divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.5%.

European markets were mixed and ended mixed.

The DJ World index gained 0.7%, and the NYSE gained 0.6%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.4%.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.

Gold remains in an uptrend and gained 1.2%.

The USD is still in a downtrend and but gained 0.9%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: the PPI and FED chair Yellen’s senate monetary testimony. Wednesday: CPI, NY FED, retail sales, industrial production, and the NAHB. Thursday: housing starts, building permits, and the Philly FED. Friday: leading indicators and options expiration.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife