Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Canada Real Estate Bubble - Harry_Dent
2.UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse - GoldCore
3.Best Cash ISA for Soaring Inflation, Kent Reliance Illustrates the Great ISA Rip Off - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Understanding true money, Pound Sterling must make another historic low, Euro and Gold outlook! - Marc_Horn
5.5 Maps That Explain The Modern Middle East - GEORGE FRIEDMAN
6.Gold Back With A Vengeance As Bitcoin Bubble Bursts - OilPrice_Com
7.Gold Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
8.Crude Oil Trade & Nasdaq QQQ Update - Plunger
9.Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies - Michael_Noonan
10.UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Saving Illinois: Getting More Bang for Its Bucks - 24th Jul 17
3 Stocks Sectors That Will Win in The Fed’s Great Balance-Sheet Unwind - 24th Jul 17
Activist Investors Are Taking Over Wall Street, Procter and Gamble Might Never Remain the Same - 24th Jul 17
Stock Market Still on Track - 24th Jul 17
Last Chance For US Dollar To Rally - 24th Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Warns of 2017 Bear Market - Video - 22nd Jul 17
Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts - 22nd Jul 17
Warning: The Fed Is Preparing to Crash the Financial System Again - 21st Jul 17
Gold / Silver Shorts Extreme - 21st Jul 17
GBP/USD Bearish Factors - 21st Jul 17
Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing - 21st Jul 17
Is It Worth Investing in Palladium? - 21st Jul 17
UK House Prices Momentum Crash Threatens Mini Bear Market 2017 - 21st Jul 17
The Fed May Show Trump No Love - 20th Jul 17
The 3 Best Asset Classes To Brace Your Portfolio For The Next Financial Crisis - 20th Jul 17
Gold Stocks and Bonds - Preparing for THE Bottom - 20th Jul 17
Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Safe Haven Gold For Long Term - 20th Jul 17
Trump Has Found A Loophole To Rewrite Trade Agreements Without Anyone’s Permission - 20th Jul 17
Basic Materials and Commodities Analysis and Trend Forecasts - 20th Jul 17
Bitcoin PullBack Is Over (For Now): Cryptocurrencies Gain Nearly A 50% In Last 48 Hours - 19th Jul 17
AAPL's 6% June slide - When Prices Are Falling, TWO Numbers Matter Most - 19th Jul 17
Discover Why A Major American Revolution Is Brewing - 19th Jul 17
iGaming – Stock Prices - 19th Jul 17
The Socionomic Theory of Finance By Robert Prechter - Book Review - 18th Jul 17
Ethereum Versus Bitcoin – Which Cryptocurrency Will Win The War? - 18th Jul 17
Accepting a Society of Government Tyranny - 18th Jul 17
Gold Cheaper Than Buying Greek Villas in 2012 - 18th Jul 17
Why & How to Hedge the Growing Risks of Holding Stocks - 18th Jul 17
Relocation: Everything You Need to do for a Smooth Transition Abroad - 17th Jul 17
A Former Lehman Brothers Trader: It’s Time To Buy Brick And Mortar Retailers - 17th Jul 17
Bank Of England Warns “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Price “Deja Vu” Corrective Sequence - 17th Jul 17
Charting New Low in Speculation in Gold and Silver Markets - 17th Jul 17
Bitcoin Crash - Is This The End of Cryptocurrencies? - 17th Jul 17
The Fed's Inflation Nightmare Scenario - 17th Jul 17
Billionaire Investors Backing A Marijuana Boom In 2017 - 17th Jul 17
Perfect Storm - This Fourth Turning has Over a Decade of Continuous Storms to Come - 17th Jul 17
Gold and Silver Biggest Opportunity Since Late 2015, Last Chance at These Prices - 17th Jul 17
Stock Market More to Go - 17th Jul 17
Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together - 16th Jul 17
Stock Market SPX Uptrending Again After Microscopic Correction - 15th Jul 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Crude Oil, Gold, ETFs & more: Pro-grade Market Forecasts

Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Feb 21, 2017 - 10:39 AM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Stock-Markets

Before we look at some of the 2009 bull market uptrend channels there are a couple of more big consolidation patterns I would like to show you on some of the stock market indexes. The $DAX, German stock market, broke out of its 13 year triangle consolidation pattern back in 2012. Late last year it broke out of the blue bull flag with a nice clean backtest to the top rail. The big triangle consolidation pattern also had a smaller triangle as part of its internal structure.


DAX Monthly Chart

Next up is the $FTSE, London Financial Times index, which is in the process of breaking out from a 15 year rectangle consolidation pattern. Just like the $DAX the FTSE also built out a triangle consolidation as part of the much bigger rectangle. The key to the breakout of this massive rectangle is the H&S bottom that formed just below the breakout area. The right shoulder was formed during the BREXIT vote. The shakeout before the breakout.

FTSE Monthly Chart

The $BVSP, Brazilian stock market, is still working on a 9 year triangle consolidation pattern. We last looked at this chart in December of last year when it was backtesting the top rail of a multi year downtrend channel.

BVSP Monthly Chart

Lets look at a couple of US stock markets that we’ve been following for many years starting with the $SPX. This index was actually one of the first of the major stock markets to breakout of its massive consolidation patterns. The breakout in 2013 was accompanied by the breakout from the blue bullish rising wedge. There was a very short one month backtest to the top rail of the flat top expanding triangle before the impulse leg up began in earnest. That impulse leg ended in 2015 where the next consolidation pattern was needed to consolidate those gains, forming the blue bullish expanding falling wedge. Again notice the clean breakout and backtest to the top rail which has led to our current impulse move higher, which is making new all time highs.

SPX Monthly Chart

I commented on this exact same chart as the one above back in May of 2009, two months after the bottom was put in at the fourth reversal point. I was speculating on how this big trading range may play out over the years, as described in the notes. There was no way to know how things would play out back in 2009, but a big consolidation pattern was one of the possibilities.

SPX Monthly Chart 2

Below is the quarterly chart for the SPX which goes back 75 years and puts the bullish flat top expanding triangle in perspective. There were only 2 times since 1942 that the SPX closed below its 84 quarterly simple moving average. The first time was at reversal point #2 back in 1974, which was the low for the bullish rising wedge. The second time was during the 2009 crash at reversal point #4 in the bullish flat top expanding triangle. At the time the 1987 crash felt like the end of the world and we were going to enter into another 1929 scenario. As it turned out the 1987 crash was just the first reversal point in the bullish rising wedge, which led to a very powerful rally which took the SPX up to its bull market high in 2000.

SPX Quarterly Chart

Recognizing a big consolidation pattern before the breakout actually takes place to confirm the pattern can be a double edged sword. In big consolidation patterns like the INDU has, The Jaws of Life, can be very trying. The breakout took place back in mid 2013, but unlike the backtest that only took one month on the SPX chart we looked at earlier, the INDU took its sweet ole time with multiple backtests that took several years to complete. The backtesting process built out the blue triangle consolidation pattern and when the price action broke out above the top rail it confirmed for me the Jaws of Life had finally completed all the work, and the next major bull market was underway.

Dow Monthly Chart

The 75 year quarterly chart for the INDU puts everything in perspective. Note the breakout and backtesting process out of the 1970’s H&S consolidation pattern which only took about 2 years, vs our current breakout and backtesting of the top rail of the expanding triangle, which took about three years before the impulse move is finally gaining some legs. Big patterns equals big moves.

Dow Quarterly Chart

Next lets look at several of the 2009 bull market uptrend channels which shows you what a bull market looks like. Most of the US stock markets have a very nice bull market uptrend channel, but for now I would like to focus in on a couple of the stronger ones that are leading the way higher.

The XLF is a financial sector etf which had built out a very tight uptrend channel out of its 2009 crash low. After breaking out and backtesting the top rail of the blue triangle consolidation pattern, the XLF rallied back up to the top rail of the uptrend channel where it should have stopped to consolidate that move. When you see a nice channel like this and the price action breaks out above the top rail it’s usually a good sign that the lower channel is going to double in size as shown by the black rectangles. Just like any resistance line, you will see a breakout and a possible backtest before prices move higher in this case.The breakout occurred in December of last year and the backtesting process has been ongoing to the center dashed trendline, which was the top rail of the original uptrend channel. Besides the tech stocks the banking stocks are one of the strongest sectors in the markets right now.

XLF Monthly Chart

The $COMPQ has formed a nice parallel uptrend channel and is testing the top rail after breaking out from the blue bull flag. This tech index has been very strong recently and I’ll be watching the top rail very carefully for a breakout and a possible doubling of the lower channel.

NASDAQ Monthly Chart

The $NYA is a broad measure of how stocks in general are doing. As you can see it’s breaking out to new all time highs, but is still way below the top rail of its 2009 uptrend channel.

NYSE Composite Index Monthly Chart

This 35 year monthly chart for the $OEX 100 shows its 13 year bullish expanding falling wedge consolidation pattern.

OEX Monthly Chart

$OEX 100, 2009 bull market uptrend channel.

OEX Monthly Chart 2

IYR, Real Estate etf.

IYR Monthly Chart

$XVG is another good proxy for how the stock markets are doing in general.

XVG Monthly Chart

AWCI, all world stock market etf.

ACWI Monthly Chart

VEU, all world stock markets minus the US stock market.

VEU Monthly Chart

The last chart for tonight is the VWO, emerging markets etf, which is building out a 6 year trading range which still hasn’t broken out. If the price action can breakout above the top rail then there is a good chance that the big trading range will be a halfway pattern to the upside.

In the Wednesday Report we’ll look at some individual stocks that have produced some big multi year trading ranges that have broken out and are moving higher. Many of the stocks will be from the tech sector which are household names that were born back in the 1980’s and 1990’s during the birth of the information age. All the best...Rambus

VWO Monthly Chart

All the best

Gary (for Rambus Chartology)

http://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2017 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife