Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Crude Oil and Water: How Climate Change is Threatening our Two Most Precious Commodities - Richard_Mills
2.The Potential $54 Trillion Cost Of The Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases - Dan_Amerman
3.Best Cash ISA Savings for Rising UK Interest Rates and High Inflation - March 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Fed Interest Hikes, US Dollar, and Gold - Zeal_LLC
5.What Happens Next after February’s Stock Market Selloff - Troy_Bombardia
6.The 'Beast from the East' UK Extreme Snow Weather - Sheffield Day 2 - N_Walayat
7.Currencies Will Be ‘Flushed Down the Toilet’ Triggering a ‘Mad Rush into Gold’ - MoneyMetals
8.Significant Decline In Stocks On The Cards! -Enda_Glynn
9.Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Driving "Beast from the East" Snow Weather Test - N_Walayat
10.SILVER Large Specualtors Net Short Position 15 Year Anniversary - Clive_Maund
Last 7 days
Time To Eliminate Your Wall Street Tax? - 20th Mar 18
The Beast from the East Snow, UK Roads Driving Car Accidents - 20th Mar 18
Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack? - 19th Mar 18
2018 Reversal Dates for Gold, Silver and Gold Stocks - 19th Mar 18
This Tech Breakthrough Could Save The Electric Car Market - 19th Mar 18
Stocks Set to Open Lower, Should You Buy? - 19th Mar 18
The Wealth Machine That Rising Interest Rates Create Conflict With The National Debt - 19th Mar 18
Affiliate Marketing Tips and Network Recommendations - 19th Mar 18
Do Stocks Bull Market Tops Need Breadth Divergences? - 19th Mar 18
Doritos Instant £500 Win! Why Super Market Shelves are Empty - 19th Mar 18
Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos - 19th Mar 18
US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building - 19th Mar 18
Stock Market Bulls Last Stand? - 18th Mar 18
Putin Flip-Flops Like A Drunken Whore On Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Legalization - 18th Mar 18
How to Legally Manipulate Interest Rates - 18th Mar 18
Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy - 18th Mar 18
Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, Paypal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning - 17th Mar 18
Strong Earnings Growth is Bullish for Stocks - 17th Mar 18
The War on the Post Office - 17th Mar 18
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 16th Mar 18
Nationalism, Not the Russians, got Trump Elected - 16th Mar 18
Has Bitcoin Bought It? - 16th Mar 18
Crude Oil Price – Who Wants the Triangle? - 16th Mar 18
PayPal Cease Trading Crypto Currency Bitcoin Warning Email Sophisticated Fake Scam? - 16th Mar 18
EUR/USD – Something Old, Something New and… Something Blue - 16th Mar 18
DasCoin: A 5-Minute Guide to How It Works - 15th Mar 18
Stock Market Downward Pressure Mounting - 15th Mar 18
The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End - 15th Mar 18
6 Easy Ways to Get What Women Want, for Less! - 15th Mar 18
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare - 15th Mar 18
Eye Opening Stock Market Index, Volatility, Charts and Predictions - 15th Mar 18
Gold Cup At Cheltenham – Gold Is For Winners, Not For Gamblers - 15th Mar 18
Upcoming Turnaround in Gold - 14th Mar 18
Will the Stock Market Make Another Correction this Year? - 14th Mar 18
4 Ways To Writing An Interesting Education Research Paper - 14th Mar 18
China Toward Sustainable Economic Growth - 14th Mar 18
Stock Market Direction Is No Longer Important - 14th Mar 18
Trade Tariffs Defeat Globalists and Return Prosperity - 14th Mar 18
Stock Market Crash is Underway and Cannot be Stopped! - 14th Mar 18
Are Energy Sector Stocks Bottoming? - 14th Mar 18
Nasdaq Stocks Soars to New Record High After Strong Job Reports - 14th Mar 18
Bitcoin BTCUSD Elliott Wave View Calling for Rally toward $15,000 - 13th Mar 18
Hungary’s Gold Repatriation Adds To Growing Protest Against US Dollar Hegemony - 13th Mar 18
Record Low Volatility in Precious Metals and What it Means - 13th Mar 18
Tips for Writing and Assembling the Classification Essay - 13th Mar 18
Gerald Celente "If Rates go up too High, the Economy goes Down, End of Story" - 13th Mar 18
Stock Market Selloff Showed Gold Can Reduce Portfolio Risk  - 13th Mar 18
Silver Does it Again! Severe Consequences - 12th Mar 18
Has the Stock Market Rally Run Out of Steam? - 12th Mar 18
S&P 500 at 2,800 Again, Stock Market Breakout or Fakeout? - 12th Mar 18
The No.1 Energy Stock To Buy Right Now - 12th Mar 18
What Happens Next When Stock Market Investor Sentiment is Neutral - 12th Mar 18
Economic Pressures To Driving Gold and Silver Prices Higher Long-Term - 12th Mar 18
Labour Sheffield City Councils Secret Plan to Fell 50% of Street Trees Exposed! - 12th Mar 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Stock Market Unconfirmed Intermediate Top

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Mar 13, 2017 - 05:31 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian


Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.

SPX Intermediate trend: Reaching 2400 has brought about a correction, but 2410 is still a remote possibility.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at

Unconfirmed Intermediate Top

Market Overview

In the last letter, I mentioned that I had a P&F projection to 2400 and that, after a correction, there was a possibility that it could be followed by a push a little higher to about 2410. So far, so good! Reaching the target brought a forty-five-point retracement but, because it found support just above the main trend line, we still do not have confirmation that we have started a correction of intermediate proportion. Until we break that trend line, an extension of the rally from 2084 to a higher high could still be ahead. However, the intermediate cycle lows which are due between April and May are just around the corner and are increasing their downward pressure on prices every day.  This should soon cause another reversal and a continuation of the downtrend.

On Friday, assisted by a good jobs report, the rally which started the previous day retraced exactly 50% of the forty-five-point decline before pulling back to fill the opening gap, but we moved up again into the close. Monday will be a decision day. If we can regain upside momentum, there has been enough re-accumulation to take us slightly beyond 2400. This would also make the wave three structure more complete. If we do this early next week, there would still be plenty of time for the cluster of bottoming cycles to generate a significant correction. We'll be able to get a better idea of its extent after we see how much distribution has taken place in the top area.

Daily chart

The uptrend which started at 1810 has formed a wide (blue) channel, which is itself an intermediate channel contained within the bull market channel.  The top of the blue channel is identified by two dashed lines. The heavy line at the top connects with the April 2016 top, while the lighter line is drawn across the August top. The lower line is where the rally from 2084 met its 2400 target and pulled back. The fact that we were not able to get all the way to the top channel line is a sign of long-term deceleration which could be the beginning of a rounding top. It's not something that we should worry about right away, but we should keep it in mind for future reference.

Within the larger channel, there is a secondary one which starts are 2084.  This is the trend which we are currently analyzing and are trying to decide when and at what price it will come to an end. Note how the rally ended:  on the last day, there was a gap that is most likely an exhaustion gap which caused a climactic end of the uptrend, followed by an immediate reversal.  However, since we did not gap down to form an island reversal, we cannot be certain that we have seen the top, and this is why we'll need to wait until we see what the index does on Monday. If we turn back down right away, the odds of coming through the trend line and resuming the decline will greatly increase. However, if we can get past the pink MA, the odds will shift to possibly making a higher high.

The bottom two oscillators gave a sell signal right away and quickly became oversold. They have now turned, but not conclusively yet. Of more interest is the top indicator which never did break its uptrend line and became negative.  If it had, we would already be in a downtrend. For a confirmed sell signal, it is key for this oscillator to go negative.

This chart and others below, are courtesy of

Hourly chart

After the index reached its projection and reversed, it first broke a trend line, then moved through the black channel. It found support at the lows of the previous consolidation and on the greenish trend line from 2084. On Friday morning, it gapped open after the jobs report was released, found resistance below the broken channel line, closed the gap, and moved up again. That second move up into the close was without real conviction, so I am not sure that we can make a new recovery high on Monday, as well as get back inside the black channel. The coup de grace for the rally from 2084 would be turning down and going through the greenish line as well as Thursday's low. The next support would be at the (red) 200-hr MA, and would only be temporary.

On the hourly chart, the top oscillator is still the main one to watch for a buy and sell signal. All three are currently in an uncertain uptrend, and they should all turn down together for a sell signal.

An overview of some important indexes (Weekly charts)

At the weekly level, charts do not show changes very quickly and last week's pull-back does not look significant in the upper tier, which is comprised of the strongest indexes. It is more noticeable on the lower indexes which are overall less strong and where market weakness should show more readily.  The red line denotes the level of the former all-time high. This identifies the transportation index as the weakest over the long-term. On an intermediate term, the IWM is just as weak, and the XBD not much stronger. Nevertheless, all are still in long-term uptrends and will need to show more negative patterns before we can consider an end to the bull market.

UUP (dollar ETF)

UUP had a serious pull-back last week, and how this is reflected in the indictors means that it could be starting on the c-wave of its intermediate correction.  We'll need a little more confirmation.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF)

With the 25-day cycle turning up, and perhaps the 84-wk as well -- although the latter will require more confirmation -- GDX was able to close at its best level in a week. That puts it at a resistance level which may have marked an interruption to this rally off the low. Once that resistance is overcome, the index can go on to challenge the correction channel line which is currently at about 22.50. This could limit the “break-out” move for now, since the P&F chart suggests that a base must first be established before attempting to resume the intermediate uptrend. Even if the 84-wk cycle has bottomed, this is not a guarantee that we are ready to extend the uptrend which started last year, or even that we have seen the final low of this move.

Note: GDX is now updated for subscribers throughout the day, along with SPX.

USO (U.S. Oil Fund)

USO has done what the chart pattern suggested. I mentioned that this looked like a descending triangle which, if resolved to the downside, could cause it to drop back to its long-term trend line, and perhaps farther.  Since the basic price projection for this type of pattern has essentially been met, USO could find support in this area and continue its long-term base-building process.


Filling the 2400 count has caused the expected profit-taking which sent SPX into a quick retracement of 45 points. This brought it to the trend line from 2084 which must be broken before we can extend the correction into something more intermediate.

There are three intermediate cycles bottoming between April and May which should pull it down farther, but until the trend line is broken, we do not have a confirmation that the correction has actually started, especially since the index must first prove that it is incapable of reaching its alternate target of about 2410. In a strong market, even the influence of important cycles can be diminished, but we should be able to estimate what they can do when the distribution phase is complete and we can calculate the extent of the correction.



If precision in market timing for all time framesis something that you find important, you should

Consider taking a trial subscription to my service.  It is free, and you will have four weeks to evaluate its worth.  It embodies many years of research with the eventual goal of understanding as perfectly as possible how the market functions.  I believe that I have achieved this goal. 


For a FREE 4-week trial, Send an email to:


For further subscription options, payment plans, and for important general information, I encourage

you to visit my website at It contains summaries of my background, my

investment and trading strategies, and my unique method of intra-day communication with

subscribers. I have also started an archive of former newsletters so that you can not only evaluate past performance, but also be aware of the increasing accuracy of forecasts.


Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2018 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules