Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - Jeff_Berwick
2.Fragile Stock Market Bull in a China Shop -James_Quinn
3.Sheffield Leafy Suburbs Tree Felling's Triggering House Prices CRASH! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Government Finances and Gold - Cautionary Tale told in Four Charts - Michael_J_Kosares
6.Gold Stocks Winter Rally - Zeal_LLC
7.The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? - Plunger
8.Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - MarketsToday
9.Electronic Gold: The Deep State’s Corrupt Threat to Human Prosperity and Freedom - Stewart_Dougherty
10.Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - Jim_Willie_CB
Last 7 days
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients - 18th Nov 17
Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom - 18th Nov 17
Facebook Traders: Tech Giant + Technical Analysis = Thumbs Up - 18th Nov 17
Games Betting System For NCAA Basketball Sports Betting - Know Your Betting Limits - 18th Nov 17
Universal Credit Doomsday for Tax Credits Cash ISA Savers, Here's What to Do - 18th Nov 17
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Q3 2017 - 17th Nov 17
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing - 17th Nov 17
Mystery of Inflation and Gold - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Ready To Pull The Rug Out From Under You! - 17th Nov 17
Crude Oil – Gold Link in November 2017 - 17th Nov 17
Play Free Online Games and Save Money Free Virtual Online Games - 17th Nov 17
Stock Market Crash Omens & Predictions: Another Day Another Lie - 16th Nov 17
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe - 16th Nov 17
Announcing Free Trader's Workshop: Battle-Tested Tools to Boost Your Trading Confidence - 16th Nov 17
Instructions to Stop a Dispossession Home Sale and How to Purchase Astutely at Abandonment Home - 16th Nov 17
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects - 16th Nov 17
Bonds And Stocks Will Crash Together In The Next Crisis (Meanwhile, Bond Yields Are Going Up) - 16th Nov 17
A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near - 16th Nov 17
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – bullish breakout of large symmetrical triangle looks to be getting closer - 16th Nov 17
Gold’s Long-term Analogies - 16th Nov 17
Does Stripping Streets of ALL of their Trees Impact House Prices (Sheffield Example)? - 15th Nov 17
The Trump Administration’s IP Battle Against China - 15th Nov 17
5 Ways Bitcoin can Improve its Odds of Becoming the Future of Money - 15th Nov 17
These Headlines Say Gold is Building a Base for Something Big - 15th Nov 17
Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection - 14th Nov 17
Gold on the Ledge, Trend Forecast - 14th Nov 17
The Unbearable Slowness Of Fourth Turnings - 14th Nov 17
Silver Sign’s Confirmation & More - 14th Nov 17
Could This Be The End for Tesla? - 14th Nov 17
Harry Dent’s Fourth Cycle: More Evidence of Stock Market Downturn - 14th Nov 17
Why Having Good Credit Is Important If You Want to Invest - 14th Nov 17
The Bitcoin Bubble Explained in 4 Charts - 13th Nov 17
How the US Has Secretly Subsidized China to Produce Eco-Unfriendly Solar Panels - 13th Nov 17
The Increasingly Unstable Middle East Must Be On Every Investor’s Radar - 13th Nov 17
Stock Market Critical Supports are Being Challenged - 13th Nov 17
The One Chart All Investors Should See Before 2018 - 13th Nov 17
Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally, Will Stocks Continue Higher? - 13th Nov 17
Is Hillary Just the “Fall Guy” for the Intel Agencies and their Moneybags Bosses? - 12th Nov 17
Stock Market Correction Phase - 12th Nov 17
Finally, The Fall Of The House Of Saud - 12th Nov 17
Bitcoin War Begins – Bitcoin Cash Rises 50% While Bitcoin Drops $1,000 In 24 Hours - 11th Nov 17
E-franc, E-krona... E-volution? - 11th Nov 17
Gold Investment Stalled - 11th Nov 17
Smart Ways to Get Loans Online - 11th Nov 17
What Can Pot Teach Us About Economics and Government? - 10th Nov 17
Can Stocks and Bonds go Down at the Same Time? - 10th Nov 17
Gold Market 2017 Will We See a Replay of 2015 and 2016? - 10th Nov 17
Oil markets turn bullish with shift to backwardation - 10th Nov 17
The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday - 10th Nov 17
Where to Start Your Cryptocurrency Company - 10th Nov 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Forex Trading Free Week

Sugar Commodity Investors: "Desperately Seeking..." Clarity and Objectivity

Commodities / Commodities Trading Jul 28, 2017 - 09:55 AM GMT

By: EWI

Commodities


Congratulations, Elliott wave analysis is your ideal match

Over the last two years, sugar futures have crashed and spiked and crashed again -- much like a diabetic without insulin.

After plummeting to an 8-year low in September 2015, sugar prices then doubled in a stunning rally to a 4-year high in September 2016, only to turn back down in a 40% sell-off to19-month lows in late June 2017, where they linger to this day.


For nimble investors and traders, these kinds of erratic price swings are what opportunities are made of -- so long as they catch those moves before they occur and not after. It just so happens, we know someone who did just that.

Here, we turn the floor over to our chief commodities analyst Jeffrey Kennedy and his archived analysis of sugar since 2015.

The time: Mid-2015. Sugar prices are about as sweet as curdled milk, circling the drain of an 8-year low as the market is mired in a relentless bear market. Wrote an August 4, 2015 Wall Street Journal:

"The futures sugar market in New York behaves like an endless rerun of a horror movie."

But, according to Jeffrey Kenney, this "horror movie" was about to enjoy a happy turn of events. In his July 2015 Monthly Commodity Junctures, Jeffrey outlined a very bullish scenario for sugar, including these details:

"I've noticed over the years that significant turning points tend to occur in years ending 0 and 5... as we move into 2015, I'm actually anticipating a significant low. I'm looking for prices to bottom this year.

"I believe we're in the very late stages of the initial move down. Ideally, say as move into the fourth quarter of 2015, the [decline] will terminate ant that will give way to an advance where I expect sugar prices to actually double.

"Once we do finish this move down, I will be looking for a sizable move, something that will easily push prices back up to 18, 20, even as high as 22."

What happened next?

Sugar prices bottomed in late September 2015, the "fourth quarter" time window that Jeffrey had identified.

By September 2016, sugar prices exploded upward in a 90%-plus rally to Jeffrey's 22 cents/pound price target.

By then, Jeffrey's analysis warned that the time for another dramatic turn had arrived -- this time, lower. Here, the September 29, 2016 Daily Commodity Junctures laid out the likely course ahead:

"Basis the March contract, the preferred wave interpretation favors Sugar rising in five waves from 20.10 into the 24.87 neighborhood. Doing so is scheduled to complete a larger degree five wave advance from 13.48 basis March... as well as an even larger wave degree three wave corrective rally sequence from 10.13 basis front month continuation.

"This projected market top should then set the stage for igniting subsequent selling pressure in five waves at weekly chart level."

Again sugar prices closely followed its Elliott wave script, rallying a bit further before losing its grip on the upside -- and falling 20%-plus before stalling in spring of 2017.

At the time, Jeffrey refocused his attention on sugar, featuring the market in his March 2017 Monthly Commodity Junctures. There, Jeffrey explained how sugar prices had taken the first "step" in confirming a renewed downtrend; i.e. they had penetrated the lower boundary line of the corrective price channel. Jeffrey affirmed:

"Everything seems to be on track for lower prices.

"The attention is now focused to the downside. The objective I offered to at least below 12.61. Nothing has changed and that idea is still very much intact."

From there, sugar prices plummeted another 20% to their lowest level in 19 months in late June. The next chart captures the market's precipitous drop in full detail:

The fact is, commodities are some of the most volatile markets in the world. And, fact is, Elliott wave analysis doesn't always deliver wave counts as strong and clear as the one's Jeffrey has identified in sugar over the last two years.

But you can always count on Elliott wave to deliver 100% objective insight into a market's near-, and long-term potential.

Oil, gold, ETFs & more: FREE pro-grade forecasts

Are you paying attention to commodities? You should be.

Major moves in oil, gold and other commodities have offered up huge opportunities for traders in 2017.

Now through July 28, get free, professional-grade forecasts for gold, oil, ETFs and more inside the new Commodity Hotlist.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Sugar Investors: "Desperately Seeking..." Clarity and Objectivity. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife