Category: Commodities TradingThe analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
In this report I would like to show you a chart pattern that seems to be showing up in a lot of different area’s of the markets, in particular the commodities complex. We looked at some of them in the last Weekend Report which were maturing, but in some cases hadn’t broken down yet. The chart pattern I’m referring to is the bearish rising wedge.
Some of the bearish rising wedges have a common theme which is the late 2015 low, when commodities and the PM complex finally bottomed out after that massive impulse move down. At a minimum the price objective for a rising or falling wedge is the first reversal point in which the wedge began to build out. Prices can go much lower, but the first reversal point is a good first price objective.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 07, 2017
Chartology of the Commodities: The Inflation/Deflation Barometer / Commodities / Commodities Trading
One of the biggest questions investors have is what type of environment are stocks and the economy in, deflation or inflation? Knowing the answer to that question can give you a heads up on what different sectors to invest in and what sectors to stay away from. Tonight I would like to update some of the different commodities indexes to see if they can give us any clues on which way the deflationary or inflationary pendulum is swinging. Commodities are often an under analysed asset class as compared to Stocks and Bonds. However they are the nuts and bolts , the real stuff supporting human existence.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 20, 2017
Recent pro-US rhetoric from the current administration is only adding to an existing multi-year renewed strength of the US dollar.
The chant of "USA first" has only been the last of the drivers to push the greenback higher.
Some of the other factors have been unemployment, which has reached a milestone at 4.8 percent, the second lowest level since 2006.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 05, 2017
The FOMC has raised its benchmark interest rate up for the second time since the recession of 2008 and 2009. And as the U.S. is the only G8 country, over the last eight years, to start increasing its rate, there is little to no competition for the currency.
The impact of a raising currency are many.
On the plus side, it creates higher demand for U.S. Treasuries, lower borrowing costs for the Federal government and foreign demand for U.S. assets (including stocks).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
2011, 2014, and 2016: The year's performance has consistently followed its Elliott wave script
It's that time of year again, when before us an entirely new blank slate is laid, which we eagerly fill with promises of better health, habits, and life choices.
But, according to Statisticsbrain.com, only 8% of people successfully carry through with their New Year's resolutions -- or as I like to call them, Maybe-lutions.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 03, 2016
This week our friends over at Elliott Wave International are hosting a free online event exclusively for commodity traders!
For 5 opportunity-filled days -- at ZERO cost to you -- you will enjoy premium video forecasts from one of the world's foremost Elliott wave experts, Jeffrey Kennedy. Each video gives you real-time analysis, charts, forecasts and actionable trading ideas and tips to help you find the best commodity opportunities.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 29, 2016
A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 17, 2016
Recently I have gotten wordy about the decline in ‘inflation expectations’ beginning on June 2, right on through yesterday’s update of the TIP-TLT ratio and TLT in essence, attaining their targets. The implication would be that the mini deflation whiff is coming to its limits.
As often happens at potential limit points, the market’s crosscurrents are strong. As noted yesterday, USD, gold, silver and the gold miners all did in-day reversals as items that had been risk ‘off’ got hammered. ‘What, USD and gold in lockstep? What is the meaning of this?!?’ think inflationists. See yesterday’s in-day post Strange Bedfellows.
The meaning is that these items, along with the VIX and US Treasury bonds have been plays for a risk ‘off’ market as it got the jitters over deflation. Gold miners had been, however fleetingly, rising in line with their counter-cyclical fundamentals and this is the mirror image to the reasons why I so often parrot that if you are a gold miner bull, realize that fundamentally at least, the sector is done no favors in an inflationary backdrop (price, for long stretches of time, can be something else all together).Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 26, 2016
This past week I was interviewed by James Stafford at Oilprice.com.
We discussed, oil, gold, lithium, other natural resources, global opportunities, and even biotech plays.
Here is the full interview, conducted several days ago.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 09, 2016
Commodities Overtake Stocks and Bonds with Best Rally Since 2010! / Commodities / Commodities Trading
Traders who follow the price of gold and silver, should keep an eye out on the U.S. dollar index. The dollar has been within a trading range for more than a year. During December of 2015, the dollar rose to test the highs at 100, however, since February of 2016, the dollar has been in a downtrend, as shown in the chart below.
The FED has reduced the expectations of a rate hike in 2016 from one full percentage point, in the beginning of the year, to a half percent and perhaps to none at all. However, my expectation is that the FED may have to start rolling back this increase before the end of 2016.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 05, 2016
According to conventional wisdom, the challenges of global commodities can be attributed to China’s slowdown and poor growth prospects. Advanced economies are not immune. In the US, just two commodity-related sectors – oil and gas, as well as metals and steel – accounted for more than half of the defaults in 2015.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Commodities are in a positive cycle. It is too early to tell whether the long term bear market is over, but short and medium term momentum is clearly in favor of commodity bulls.
In this article, we revise 7 must-see charts covering the commodities complex, which reveal current and future investment opportunities.
First, the CRB commodoties index bottomed in January of this year. At that point in time, sentiment was even worse than during the depth of the 2008 financial crisis. The first chart shows how bad sentiment was in the last months of 2015 / early January 2016, see lower pane. Consequently, the upside potential is enormous as commodities are currently nowhere near positive sentiment levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 17, 2016
And it wants more of it.
From mid-2014 until early 2016, commodities as an asset class, collapsed some 45%.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 09, 2016
With the U.S. dollar drifting lower over the past four months, most commodities are feeling a strong tailwind blowing their way.
Dollar bulls were hoping for a more aggressive program of interest rate increases, but instead the Fed dialed-back the number from four to two this year. The US$ pulled away from its high of $100.60 and formed a series of lower levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016Read full article... Read full article...