Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Will USD/CAD Drop Further?

Currencies / Forex Trading Jul 28, 2017 - 12:51 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Currencies

Yesterday, the greenback extended losses against the Canadian dollar, which resulted in a drop below the May 2016 low. Does it mean that the way to lower levels is open?

EUR/USD


Yesterday, EUR/USD came back above the upper border of the green consolidation and the upper border of the brown rising trend channel, invalidating the earlier breakdown under these lines. Thanks to this move the exchange rate also climbed above the August 2015 peak and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (both seen on the weekly chart). Despite this improvement, currency bulls didn’t manage to hold these levels, which encouraged their opponents to act earlier today. As a result, the pair pulled back and slipped under the August 2015 peak and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, invalidating the earlier breakout. Although this is a negative development, it will turn into bearish if EUR/USD closes this week under these two major resistance levels. If additionally, the exchange rate invalidates the breakout above the upper border of the green consolidation and the upper border of the brown rising trend channel currency bears will receive important reasons to act. In this case, we’ll likely see an acceleration of declines and EUR/USD will drop to its first downside target around 1.1408, where the lower border of the brown rising trend channel currently is. If this support is broken, the way to lower levels will be open.

Very short-term outlook:  bearish
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

USD/JPY

On Friday, we wrote the following:

(...) the breakdown under the red declining support line encouraged currency bears to act. As you see on the daily chart, a decline below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement triggered further deterioration and a drop below the next retracement. What’s next? Taking into account an invalidation of the breakout above the red line and a drop below the 50% retracement, we think that the pair will extend losses and test the nearest green support zone in the coming day(s).

From tody’s point of view, we see that the situation developed in line with the above scenario and USD/JPY slipped to our downside target. Although the green support area triggered a rebound earlier this week, the par reversed and declined sharply yesterday, erasing almost all earlier gains. In this way the pair re-tested the strength of the green support zone once again. Will it withstand the selling pressure in the coming days? The buy signals gendered by the indictors suggest that currency bulls will try to push the pair higher. Nevertheless, if we zoom out our picture and take a closer look at the weekly chart, we notice that the sell signals generated by the indicators continue to suport currency bears and further deterioration.

Therefore, if the nearest green support area is broken, we may see a drop to around 109.46, where the upper border of the next green support zone is. This zone is currently also crossed by the medium-term green support line based on the previous lows, which increased the probability that this area will stop declines for longer and trigger a significant rebound.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed with bearish bias
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

USD/CAD

On the above charts, we see that USD/CAD dropped below the green support area and the May 2015 low, which is a negative event and suggests a test of the 112.8% Fibonacci extension and the long-term green support line (based on the September 2012, January, May, September 2013 and June 2014 lows) in the coming days. Nevertheless, taking into account the importance of this support line (it stopped currency bears five times in the past) and the current position of the daily and weekly indicators, we think that reversal an bigger move to the upside are just around the corner. Therefore if we see any reliable bullish factors on the horizon, we’ll consider opening long positions.

Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive free follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up now.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Gold & Silver, Forex, Bitcoin, Crude Oil & Stocks
Stay updated: sign up for our free mailing list today

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules