Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van - Jeff_Berwick
8.Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis - B.R. Hollister
10.Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood - Abalgorithm
Last 7 days
World Stock Market Indices: What Will Happen in 2020 – 2022 - 25th Feb 18
Will We See A Cryptocurrency Wipeout This 2018? - 25th Feb 18
Stock Market Volatility Attributed to 'Shenanigans' - 24th Feb 18
Reintroducing The Concept Of Stock Market Investing Risk - 24th Feb 18
How Global Growth and Infrastructure are Driving Commodities - 24th Feb 18
Tips to Get Financing for a New Business - 24th Feb 18
Heavy Police Presence at Resumption of Sheffield Street Tree Fellings Protests - 24th Feb 18
Why You Should NOT Sub4Sub Free Youtube Subscribers - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test Results - 23rd Feb 18
One Belt, One Road, One Direction for Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 18
Gold’s Curious Sentiment - 23rd Feb 18
Relationship Between Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar in February 2018 - 23rd Feb 18
Why The Next Oil Boom Will Be Fueled By Blockchain - 23rd Feb 18
Gold Bull and Bear Markets - 23rd Feb 18
Why Recent Lows Are Crucial for US Dollar - 23rd Feb 18
Will Bitcoin be Larger Than NEO in 2018? - 23rd Feb 18
Stock Market SPX Probable Pop-n-drop - 22nd Feb 18
Stocks Fail to Hold Gains, But Still No Correction - 22nd Feb 18
Why We Should Buy Essay - 22nd Feb 18
The Latest US Debt Blow - 22nd Feb 18
6 Tips For Seamless Business Foreign Exchange - 22nd Feb 18
How to Anticipate Stock Market Trend Changes - 21st Feb 18
Gold Miners’ Rally? What Rally? Watch Out for More Fake Moves! - 21st Feb 18
5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead - 21st Feb 18
Goofy Indictments Divert Attention from Criminal Abuses at the FBI and DOJ - 21st Feb 18
Bitcoin or British Pound ‘Pretty Much Failed’ As Currency? - 21st Feb 18
Stock Market Waiting for the Fed - 21st Feb 18
National Identity Demands Restrictive Immigration - 21st Feb 18
Best Opportunities for Freelance Technical Writing Jobs - 21st Feb 18
4% US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling - 20th Feb 18
Governments Are LYING about Their Gold Activities while Mining Companies Cower - 20th Feb 18
No Silver Lining Here - 20th Feb 18
Semi Conductor Stocks SEMI Bearish? - 20th Feb 18
The Prisoner Promised Land - 20th Feb 18
Best Car Dash Cam Review: Z-Edge S3 Dual Dash Cam - UNBOXING (1) - 20th Feb 18
How Inflation Reduces The Real Value Of Social Security Net Of Medicare Premiums - 19th Feb 18
Could Stellar Lumens be a Challenger to Bitcoin for International Payments? - 19th Feb 18
US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken - 19th Feb 18
How To Trade Gold Stocks with Momentum - 19th Feb 18
Is a New Gold Bull Market on the Horizon? - 19th Feb 18
Stock Market Decision Point! - 19th Feb 18
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 - 18th Feb 18
Get on Top Of Debt Before It Gets on Top of You - 18th Feb 18
Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? - 18th Feb 18
5 Reasons Why Commodities Are the Investment Place to be in 2018 - 18th Feb 18
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On - 17th Feb 18
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? - 17th Feb 18
Free 1000 Youtube Subscribers Services - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test - 17th Feb 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Financial Advice From Jesse Livermore – Importance Of Being Patient and “Sitting”

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017 Sep 27, 2017 - 03:44 PM GMT

By: GoldCore

Commodities

Editor Mark O’Byrne

– Listen to Jesse Livermore and ignore the noise of short term market movements, central bank waffle and daily headlines  
– Stock and bond markets are overvalued but continue to climb… for now
– What goes up must come down and investors should diversify and rebalance portfolios despite market noise
– Behavioural biases currently drive markets, prompting legendary investors to be confused and opt out
– Lesson is to prepare portfolios for long-term and invest in assets that will act as hedge in next market correction or crash
– Gold performs well over the long-term and delivers to those “sitting” and being patient


When it comes to your investment portfolio it is harder than ever to sift through market and central bank noise and focus on the fundamental drivers and long-term strategy.

Take for example a quick glance at financial news pages this morning:

  • A story about bitcoin’s rise from $200 in 2013 to $5000 just three weeks ago –  a gain of 2,400%
  • Fed rate hike odds in December have soared to 78% thanks to Yellen’s “noisy” comments yesterday
  • Luxury homes in London’s best neighborhoods are set to rise by 20.3% over next five years – allegedly
  • Warnings of supply gap in oil production next year

Meanwhile, we look at more quiet, conservative gold and it has varied no more than $200/oz over the last four years.

It can be difficult to correlate this with a background of markets that are teeming with behavioural biases. Market reactions are short-tempered thanks to this age of instant information… and disinformation.

Greed and fear become more exaggerated than ever and greed is currently dominant.

The most recent individual to get frustrated with this state of affairs is money manager Hugh Hendry. Hendry recently decided to close his hedge fund, after 15 years. Hendry joined the likes of Eric Mindich, Leland Lim and John Burbank all of whom have shuttered hedge funds this year.

Market frustrations make us want to jump on money making bandwagon

In his round of send-offs Hendry explained how frustrating he had found markets. By nearly every measure they are over-priced, but few seem to care.

Hendry told Bloomberg:

“To my great, great, great horror, I became deeply correlated to the travails of President Trump’s presidency and of course these geopolitical events, which were sparked off in the Korean peninsula.”

Markets are reacting to short-termisms and click-bait headlines.

Consider this: stocks, bonds and property prices are at all-time highs. They’re not alone, private equity and some collectibles (considered alternative assets) are also at all time highs.

But they keep on going.

Occasionally it can feel as though nothing will take the steam out of the sails of markets which by all measures should be dramatically faltering.

Momentum is a powerful thing … especially in the short term.

At the end of H1 2017 the S&P500, the Dow and Nasdaq Composite posted their biggest gains in recent years.

Stock prices fluctuate on a daily, monthly and even quarterly basis. These fluctuations often have very little to do with the fundamental value of the business.

Short-termism, speculation and stock buy backs are the main drivers of stocks today.

In 1960 the average period for holding a NYSE stock was eight years and four months. Today, according to Credit Suisse, the average period for holding a stock across the broader US stock market is four months.

We know from experience that this kind of trading behaviour and pricing activity cannot continue.

What goes up must come down. But obviously no-one knows when.

This is frustrating in this day and age. At a time when information is at my fingertips it can be infuriating to not have an answer.

But, we must be patient.

Importance of patience – a time-old skill

We were reminded of one of the greatest examples of investing with patience by Tim Price of Price Value International.

Price tells the story of Jesse Livermore, a legendary trader.

Livermore was extraordinary. Born in 1877, Livermore ran away from home as a child and soon began trading stocks.

By the time he was 20, he had already amassed a fortune of $3 million, more than $75 million in today’s money.

Livermore sold short, i.e. bet that stock prices would fall, just prior to the 1907 crash, as well as the 1929 crash.

His bets were so lucrative that, going into the Great Depression, Livermore had a fortune of more than $100 million, or about $1.4 billion today.

But Livermore wasn’t just great at making money from overheated markets. He was also a master of losing money.

This book is widely and rightly regarded as an investment classic. It is also crammed with valuable observations about the practice of speculation and successful trading.

Among them, the importance of being patient and disciplined:

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.”

The success of long-term investing and damage of short-term reactions is not just anecdotal.

In its 2016 Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour,  US investment firm Dalbar found the leading cause of 20 years of diminished returns was investors’ own behaviour.

They tended to indulge in ‘panic selling, excessively exuberant buying and attempts at market timing’.

Time pressures of thinking 

We shouldn’t be surprised that investors struggle to take a Jesse Livermore approach these days. Not only are we surrounded by instant news but we are also pressured into delivering regular results.

Hedge fund managers such as Hendry have to give their clients regular updates. All of us who hold investments with managers receive quarterly or annual reports. Money managers must report their results.

Of course, this is good for transparency but can you imagine how most people these days would feel if they thought money managers were telling them their investments hadn’t done very much? They would want to move their money, they’re not seeing much change which in today’s minds means their is little value.

This is why we like gold

For precisely this point, we like gold. It requires patience, over the long-term it likes to filter out the noise that comes from the likes of Trump tweets and pumped up stocks.

Gold has performed extremely well since 1999. During the tech-fuelled stock market collapse of 2000-2003 gold stood strong. It made further gains during the disaster of the Iraq war, further boosted by the likes of Enron-esque scandals.

Following the financial crisis in 2007/ 2008, it posted some of its biggest gains.

Not bad for something that has just sat in the background for the last near-twenty years.

Regardless of how much gold you choose to hold in your portfolio the main message is clear: do not manage your portfolio on a daily basis, consider it as something which requires care over the long-term. This is why gold serves a portfolio so well.

This is something those who are just beginning to consider their long-term finances should seriously pay attention to.

Millennials take note

Earlier this year The World Gold Council’s John Reade, chief market strategist and head of research (and former managing partner at Paulson & Co.) spoke about the need for millennials to consider not only long-term investing and diversification but how gold played a key role.

“Millennials are an interesting case study; they are going to be working and investing a long time so you need to think about more than just the short term … Gold is a great diversifier for a portfolio but it is more than that. It is a source of returns that is commiserate with equities over the last 10, 20 years.”

Investing in gold is a commitment for the long-term. In order to enjoy long-term investing, participants must have both patience and an ability to tolerate periods of less-than-desireable performance.

It is vital millennials consider the performance of an asset over a long-period of time, as they are just starting to build their portfolios and need to prepare for the next 20, 30, 40 years or more.

The most prominent financial event in millennial’s memory is the collapse of Lehman brothers. Those who invested in gold before or soon after the financial crash have fared well.

Gold is the true reward of patient investing 

Investing expert Warren Buffet famously stated that his preferred time to hold a stock is “forever.”

We know that equities are different to gold bullion but there is some transferable knowledge here.

The precious metal has delivered solid returns on a long-term basis. Investors must not be put off by the weaker performance of  the last four years. Instead they should ask what has driven the price over the last ten, twenty and forty years since the end of the Gold Standard.

Those long-term drivers have not suddenly disappeared. Currencies continue to be devalued, savers continue to earn very little on their savings and uncertainty is ever-growing in the political and economic worlds.

Gold is a proven hedge against instability and market turmoil. In recent years it has gained in popularity thanks to  low interest rates and financial uncertainties.

In the long-term, holding on to gold has been shown to be quite lucrative for many investors. But the key is a long-term focus,  patience and “sitting”…

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

27 Sep: USD 1,291.30, GBP 963.83 & EUR 1,099.54 per ounce
26 Sep: USD 1,306.90, GBP 969.59 & EUR 1,105.38 per ounce
25 Sep: USD 1,295.50, GBP 957.89 & EUR 1,089.26 per ounce
22 Sep: USD 1,297.00, GBP 956.15 & EUR 1,082.09 per ounce
21 Sep: USD 1,297.35, GBP 960.56 & EUR 1,089.00 per ounce
20 Sep: USD 1,314.90, GBP 970.53 & EUR 1,094.79 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

27 Sep: USD 16.89, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
26 Sep: USD 17.01, GBP 12.67 & EUR 14.43 per ounce
25 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.57 & EUR 14.27 per ounce
22 Sep: USD 16.97, GBP 12.52 & EUR 14.18 per ounce
21 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.24 per ounce
20 Sep: USD 17.38, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.48 per ounce

Mark O'Byrne

Executive Director

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

IRL
63
FITZWILLIAM SQUARE
DUBLIN 2

E info@goldcore.com

UK
NO. 1 CORNHILL
LONDON 2
EC3V 3ND

IRL +353 (0)1 632 5010
UK +44 (0)203 086 9200
US +1 (302)635 1160

W http://www.goldcore.com/uk/

WINNERS MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analysts 2006

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information containd in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

GoldCore is committed to complying with the requirements of the Data Protection Act. This means that in the provision of our services, appropriate personal information is processed and kept securely. It also means that we will never sell your details to a third party. The information you provide will remain confidential and may be used for the provision of related services. Such information may be disclosed in confidence to agents or service providers, regulatory bodies and group companies. You have the right to ask for a copy of certain information held by us in our records in return for payment of a small fee. You also have the right to require us to correct any inaccuracies in your information. The details you are being asked to supply may be used to provide you with information about other products and services either from GoldCore or other group companies or to provide services which any member of the group has arranged for you with a third party. If you do not wish to receive such contact, please write to the Marketing Manager GoldCore, 63 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 marking the envelope 'data protection'

GoldCore Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules