Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 - 26th Feb 20
Fake Markets Are on Collision Course with Reality - 26th Feb 20
Microsoft is Crushing the S&P 500, Secret Trait Of Stocks That Soar 1,000%+ - 26th Feb 20
Europe's Best Ski Resorts For The Ultimate Adventure - 26th Feb 20
Samsung Galaxy S20+ vs Galaxy S10+ Which One to Buy? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Is Taking on $1,700 amid Rising Coronavirus Fears - 26th Feb 20
Is This What Falling Through the Floor Looks Like in Stocks? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Minsky Moment Coming - 26th Feb 20
Why Every Student Should Study Economics - 26th Feb 20
Stock Market Correction Over? - 26th Feb 20
US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 - 25th Feb 20
Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 25th Feb 20
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK - 25th Feb 20
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? - 24th Feb 20
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? - 24th Feb 20
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? - 24th Feb 20
Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 24th Feb 20
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact - 24th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold GDX ETF From One Inflection Point To Another

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017 Dec 29, 2017 - 12:36 PM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Commodities

First published on Sunday Dec 24 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Ever since we broke down below the upper support region back in early September, and invalidated an immediate break-out set up, we have been looking for the GDX to test the 21 region. It was a point of support which could complete the larger degree wave ii, and begin the long-awaited start to a major 3rd wave rally. And, if it broke, it opened the door to the 17-19 region for a larger degree wave ii bottom.


In early December, we identified the more specific 20.89-21.26 support region, which, if held, could begin that major 3rd wave. But, since it would mean that this 2nd wave would have completed in an unorthodox manner, I noted that I would need to see confirmation that the market has truly bottomed.

As we now know with the benefit of hindsight, the GDX bottomed at 21.27 (within a penny of our support), and began a rally which came within pennies of our first resistance region of 22.30 before it pulled back. Last weekend, I noted that the market was likely set up to continue higher, since the pullback looked corrective off the 22.30 region. During this past week, I presented you with the set up for the market to rally to an ideal target of 22.85, and, as the close of the week, the market struck a high so far of 22.92.

Thus far, the market has been rather predictable, at least within pennies of our targets. But, now we are faced with another test being presented to this market. The question before us, which will likely be decided in the coming week or two, is if the market is going to continue much higher and begin to confirm that the larger degree 3rd wave has begun, or if we will roll over to extend this 2nd wave pullback into early 2018. And, as you can see from the attached 8-minute GDX chart, we now reside within that region of resistance where the market will have to make its decision.

From a targeting standpoint, I want to remind you that the larger degree wave iii should strike a minimal target of 50 in the GDX once we confirm that it has begun. But, remember that the metals complex usually exceeds those standard expectations, as the 50 region is the 1.618 extension of waves i and ii, if wave ii is already completed. In fact, I would much rather target the 58-68 region for just wave iii at this time, assuming wave ii has completed.

But, as noted last weekend, I will need to see it break through the 23.30 region for me to begin to become a believer that the more immediately bullish yellow wave count on the daily chart is the operative count to follow into early 2018. Until such time, I remain quite cautious as we now reside at a resistance point which can turn us down again into early 2018 to extend wave ii.

As you can see, silver also resides within the resistance region we highlighted earlier this week in my mid-week metals update. It will need to see a strong break out through this resistance to open the door to its potential bottoming confirmation. And, lastly, I have attached an 8-minute chart of GLD to outline what I would need to see to be convinced that we have 5 waves off its recent lows. Should that occur, you can see where I have GLD projected in the coming year on its daily chart.

In fact, once the GLD has confirmed it is in the heart of its 3rd wave, it will not take long until it returns to its prior all-time highs. But, again, I must stress how important it is for us to confirm the bottom has been struck before we get too excited about the impending 3rdwave rally. As you can see, there is plenty of room on the upside to garner significant profits during a 3rd wave, but it is of utmost importance to allow the market to confirm its intention before becoming too aggressive on the long side.

Lastly, as you can see from the attached ABX chart, we also reside within that resistance region I have been highlighting for quite some time. So, I cannot say that the ABX is providing us insight beyond that which we have gleaned from the rest of the market.

At this point, I will leave you best wishes for a wonderfully enjoyable holiday season, as we await the next directional cue from the market regarding its intentions for early 2018. You now have the relevant guidelines as to the market’s potential paths, and should anything change, I will certainly send out an update to all our members. Best wishes for a healthy, happy, and profitable 2018.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the Silver, GDX, GLD & ABX.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2017 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules