Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update - 22nd Jun 18
Gold - How Long Can This Last? - 22nd Jun 18
Dow Has Fallen 8 days in a Row. Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks - 22nd Jun 18
Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help - 22nd Jun 18
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Here Is The Most Ridiculous Commentary About The Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Feb 26, 2018 - 02:48 PM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

Whenever I write a new article on the stock market, I usually try to highlight just how ridiculous much of the commentary about the market truly is. My ultimate goal is to force you to think on your own and adopt a more intellectually honest perspective of financial markets, rather than just buying into anything you read or hear.

Two weeks ago, I noted how the pundits claimed the market dropped because of rising rates, but when the market rallied, the same pundits claimed that it was rallying because of rising rates.


Clearly, these people no longer think before they provide “analysis.” Yet, many viewers do even less thinking. Not only do they buy into everything they hear from these pundits, but they then come onto the comment section of my articles (and throughout blogs all over the internet) and regurgitate what they have just heard. It seems no one thinks on their own anymore.

Around the same time, these same pundits told us that if the CPI would suggest inflation is rearing its ugly head, the market would continue to tank. Yet, the market held the support I noted to my subscribers to the penny, and we have continued higher still. So, I guess inflation must be good for the market.

So, I happened to have had the television turned on Friday to a certain news station towards the end of the trading day. And, I am usually quite amused at hearing what the “experts” say about what is causing the day’s movements in the market.

Now, on Friday, there was no real news that the pundits could point towards which would explain the rally we experienced. However, it seems the first pundit decided to view the rally as being caused by Trump’s speech that afternoon. I mean, did he announce some amazing new economic stimulus that caused investors to begin buying with two fists? No. Maybe it was his perspective on how he tries to hide his bald spot? Somehow, I just don’t think that was it either. Yet, that did not stop the first pundit from claiming that this speech somehow caused the market to rally on Friday. And, amazingly, not only did none of the other 3 pundits on the same show challenge him on that perspective or come up with another perspective of their own, they all simply agreed that it must have been caused by Trump’s speech.

I think we have come to the point in time where we are not only confronted with “fake news,” but it seems we are constantly being confronted by “fake analysis.”

When I was in 3rd grade, my teacher had a sign up at the front of the room which stated: “PUT BRAIN IN GEAR BEFORE ENGAGING MOUTH.” Sadly, most of those who offer us financial analysis today do not abide by this simple guidance presented in my 3rd grade class.

So, let’s try and focus on the reality of the market rather than some of the ridiculous things that some people spout, which is based upon the news of the moment.

Last weekend, I noted to my subscribers that I expected a pullback during this past week. And, if we would break the 2700 level of support, then it would project us down to the 2600SPX region, and set up a rally to the 2800SPX region. However, I also noted that if the 2700SPX region held as support, the market could be taking a more direct path to our 2800SPX region target. Thus far, the 2700SPX region has held like a champ, and Monday will likely provide us with further clarification if we are heading directly up to the 2800SPX target we set weeks ago when we bottomed in the 2536SPX region.

In the coming week, the 2730SPX level seems quite prominent to me. As long as we hold over that level, the market seems to be targeting the 2800 region before the next bigger pullback/drop is seen, which is outlined in my green colored wave count below.

However, should we see the market break 2730SPX early in the week, and follow through below 2700SPX, then we have an open door to drop down to the 2600SPX region again, and likely quite fast, which is outlined in my yellow colored wave count below.

Ultimately, as I have noted many times before, I do not believe this bull market has yet completed. Rather, I still believe the next few months will be developing a base in the market from which we can rally to the 3011-3223SPX region next, which can still be seen by the end of 2018 or early 2019. A sustained break down below 2400SPX would make me reconsider this potential for 2018.

Lastly, for those who struggle with my if/then analysis progression, I want to remind you of something. The stock market is a non-linear environment, which means we have to approach it from a probabilistic perspective. We use standard patterns which guide us in identifying changed trends in market sentiment and investor psychology.

These patterns provide us accurate targets, along with intermediate term targets and support levels along the progression through the pattern. As long as a particular pattern maintains within its parameters, we maintain our higher targets. However, if we see evidence that the pattern is not following through appropriately, we have an alternative perspective which we immediately adopt. This allows us early warning for a turn in the market, which then allows us for more than enough opportunity to be able to adjust our positioning.

As Keynes purportedly said:

“When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do sir?”

Remember, nothing hurts a portfolio more than this four-letter word: HOPE.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the S&P 500.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules