Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
Tec Stocks Sector Set For A Rebound? - 16th Oct 18
Real Estate Transactions are Becoming Seamless with Blockchain-Powered Data Sets - 16th Oct 18
Important Elements of a Viral Landing Page - 16th Oct 18
Stephen Leeb Predicts 3-Digit Silver and 5 Digit Gold?! - 16th Oct 18
BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus - 16th Oct 18
Is this the Start of a Bear Market for Stocks? - 16th Oct 18
Chinese Economic Prospects Amid US Trade Wars - 16th Oct 18
2019’s Hottest Commodity Is About To Explode - 15th Oct 18
Keep A Proper Perspective About Stock Market Recent Move - 15th Oct 18
Is the Stocks Bull Dead? - 15th Oct 18
Stock Market Bottoms are a Process - 15th Oct 18
Fed is Doing More Than Just Raising Rates - 14th Oct 18
Stock Markets Last Cheap Sector - Gold - 14th Oct 18
Next Points for Crude Oil Bears - 13th Oct 18
Stock Market Crash: Time to Buy Stocks? - 12th Oct 18
Sheffield Best Secondary School Clusters for 2018-19 Place Applications - 12th Oct 18
Trump’s Tariffs Echo US Trade Policy That Led to the Great Depression - 12th Oct 18
US Dollar Engulfing Bearish Pattern Warns Of Dollar Weakness - 12th Oct 18
Stock Market Storm Crash, Dow Plunges to Trend Forecast! - 12th Oct 18
SP500 Stock Market Sell Off Well Forecast by President Trump - 11th Oct 18
USD and US Tr. Yields Retreat, GBP Gains on Brexit-deal Report - 11th Oct 18
Loss Of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets & Housing - 11th Oct 18
Just How Bearish is the Stock Market’s Breadth? - 11th Oct 18
Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now - 10th Oct 18
Russian Ruble Technical Chart Analysis and Forecast - 10th Oct 18
Society Trends To Keep in Mind in the USA - 10th Oct 18
[eBook] How to Identify Turning Points in the Market - 10th Oct 18
Euro Vulnerable as Slowing Growth Reveals Underlying Issues - 9th Oct 18
Construction Companies to Watch For in 2019 - 9th Oct 18
ECB Meeting Minutes and US Inflation Data in Focus - 9th Oct 18
Interest Rate Shock-Time to Find Out Who has been Swimming Naked - 9th Oct 18
Unintended Consequences of Expanding Sheffield's Best Ranking State Secondary Schools - 9th Oct 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Update - 9th Oct 18
Inflation Is Starting To Heat Up - 8th Oct 18
Stock Market Seasonal Influence at Work - 8th Oct 18
Barrick Randgold Deal Breathes New Life into Gold - 8th Oct 18
Stock Market Sell Off, Dollar Rally Expected, Now What? - 8th Oct 18
The Chartology of Gold and Silver - 8th Oct 18
The Income for Life Playbook - 8th Oct 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

US Housing Real Estate Market and Banking Pressures Are Building

Housing-Market / US Housing Mar 19, 2018 - 05:27 AM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Housing-Market

Early signs that the US Fed may be pushing the envelope of rising rates and creating pressure on banks and borrowers are starting to show up more prominently now.  One component of our research at Technical Traders Ltd. is to find data that may be overlooked or ignored by some other researchers.  We believe that any pressures or hardships related to general consumers will be seen first in discretionary debt (credit cards, autos, and entertainment/activities).  When consumers feel the debt pressure starting to build, they react by cutting back on certain discretionary spending – focusing their purchasing/paying abilities on essential items like food, human necessities (toiletries and other essentials) and maintaining essential components of their lives.


One of the first things to watch is the delinquency rates for credit cards and autos.  Additionally, watching for early signs of weakness in the larger metro real estate can assist us in understanding the health and dynamics of regional economies.  Months ago, the levels of Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures were dramatically lower in major metro locations.  Pre-Foreclosures are early stage Foreclosures where borrowers are behind in their mortgage payments and the banks have issued an “intent to foreclose” notice unless the borrower repays delinquent amounts.

The Los Angeles metro is one of the largest and more diverse economies in the world.  California is rated the 6th largest economy in the world if it considered a unique country.  The ability to earn and spend efficiently within this metro is essential as it is ranked the 8th most expensive city in the world (Source March 2016 SCPR.org). There is a fine line between the balance of being able to afford to live in an area while creating opportunity and success and being priced out of an are because of constricting economic fundamentals.  We believe this balance is beginning to skew towards a massive unraveling process.

The BLUE dots on this image below are Pre-Foreclosures.  The RED dots are Foreclosures.  Our research concludes that this early stage development of increased foreclosure activities and strains on the economic fundamentals related to this large metro are showing that pressure is building for an eventual market top similar to what we saw in 2008.  We may still be many months or a year away from an eventual peak in the stock market, but the signs are starting to become more evident that pricing pressures are driving many borrowers into the foreclosure process while the regional real estate markets are about to be flooded with distressed property.

The Chicago metro area is showing similarities to the Los Angeles area.  One clear visual difference is the larger number or RED dots showing active foreclosures.

The Dallas, Texas metro is also showing signs of distress.  As thousands of people have relocated to Texas over the past 14+ years and specifically since the post-2010 economic recovery, Texas has been a hot destination for business relocation because of favorable taxation policies and cheaper real estate.  Given this continual demand for property by people moving to Texas following their employers, it appears that the fundamentals of the real estate market are changing and putting more pressure on borrowers.

The US lending giant, Freddie Mac, reported a $3.3B loss for Q4 2017 – Source.  It is our opinion that multiple factors are driving increased pressure for lenders and borrowers.  Currently, Adjustable Rate Mortgages equate to about 6~8% of all borrowing within the US.  We also believe the extended pressures related to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and the US Fed raising borrowing rates are driving a fundamental shift in US economics.  Specifically, the combination of these factors, as well as relatively narrow wage growth, are pushing many borrowers over a financial cliff.

We believe the resulting wave of economic pressure will result in a dramatic opportunity for traders to capture spectacular gains from the resulting moves in specific stocks.  We believe the US and global markets could be setting up for a massive rotational move down as these economic pressures continue to froth.  As traders, we urge all investors to pay specific attention to the often-unknown economic factors at play in the markets.

One of the most important aspects of our service to is to share our analysis so that you have some real predictive analysis data for research and review.  We are not always 100% accurate in our modeling systems predictions or accuracy, but you can spend a little time reading our research reports through most of this year to see how we’ve been calling these market moves since well before the start of 2018.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to see what we offer our subscribers and learn how we can assist you in finding great trading opportunities.  In fact, pay attention to the market moves as they play out over the next few weeks to see how accurate our research really is.  We’re confident you will quickly understand that we provide the best predictive analysis you can find and are proud to offer our clients this type of research.

In closing, don’t fall for the fear and panic articles. Stay aware of the evolving market conditions by relying on expert research and analysis like ours.  Yes, the market is extended.  Yes, the market may correct sometime in the future.  Yes, the Fed has likely created a massive bubble.  But it’s not over yet and the real trade is market segment rotation that is setting up.  Hope to see you in our member’s area where we can share more data and research to help you profit from these moves – visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules