Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market Dow 30k before End of 2020? - 13th Jul 20
Credit Market Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again - 13th Jul 20
Investors Are Going All-In on This Coronavirus Proof Industry - 13th Jul 20
5 Vital Insights That You Can Gain From Instagram Trackers - 13th Jul 20
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

A Sudden Decline in Market Sentiment is Bullish for Stocks

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Apr 02, 2018 - 10:27 AM GMT

By: Troy_Bombardia


The stock market soared from 2017 to January 2018. The rally’s acceleration in January resulted in extremely optimistic sentiment from consumers.

  1. 30% of consumers polled in January by the Conference Board expected stocks to rise in the next few months.
  2. Today, only 6% of consumers polled by the Conference Board expect stocks to rise in the next few months.

This is a drastic reversal in stock market sentiment. It is a medium term bullish sign outside of a recession. The U.S. economy is nowhere near a recession today. Recessionary cases don’t apply to today.

Here are the historical cases in which the Conference Board Consumers’ Net Expectation of a Rising Stock Market fell by more than 20% in 2 months.

  1. March 30, 2018 (present case)
  2. June 29, 2012
  3. March 31, 2008
  4. February 29, 2008
  5. March 30, 2007
  6. March 31, 2003
  7. July 31, 2002
  8. September 30, 1998
  9. April 30, 1997
  10. September 28, 1990
  11. August 31, 1990

Let’s look at what the S&P 500 did next.

June 29, 2012

This occurred after the S&P’s “small correction” bottomed in early June. The S&P went up over the next 2.5 months before making another “small correction”.

March 31, 2008

This was a bear market + recession case. It doesn’t apply to today because the Medium-Long Term Model predicts neither a bear market nor a recession.

Nevertheless, the S&P still went up over the next 1.5 months after this signal came out.

February 29, 2008

This was a bear market + recession case. It doesn’t apply to today because the Medium-Long Term Model predicts neither a bear market nor a recession.

Nevertheless, the S&P still went up over the next 2.5 months after this signal came out.

March 30, 2007

This occurred after the S&P bottomed from a “small correction” in March. The S&P rallied another 3.5 months before the next “small correction”.

March 31, 2003

This occurred after the S&P’s final bottom of its 2000-2002 bear market (a triple bottom). The S&P soared over the next year.

This historically case does not apply to today because it occurred AFTER a 50%+ bear market. The S&P has not fallen 50%+ today.

July 31, 2002

This occurred after the S&P bottomed in July. The S&P chopped higher over the next 3 weeks.

This historically case does not apply to today because it occurred AFTER a 50%+ bear market. The S&P has not fallen 50%+ today.

September 30, 1998

This occurred while the S&P was making a retest of its September bottom. The S&P soared over the next half year.

April 30, 1997

The S&P soared over the next 5 months before it began a “small correction” in October 1997.

September 28, 1990 & August 31, 1990

The S&P fell 1 more month after August 31, but that was the bottom of the “significant correction”. The S&P soared over the next half year.


This is a short-medium term bullish sign for the stock market. The stock market might fall a little more in the short term, but the downside is limited.

The stock market will trend higher over the next few months (short-medium term), regardless of how volatility the uptrend is.

By Troy Bombardia

I’m Troy Bombardia, the author behind I used to run a hedge fund, but closed it due to a major health scare. I am now enjoying life and simply investing/trading my own account. I focus on long term performance and ignore short term performance.

Copyright 2018 © Troy Bombardia - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules