Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated - 21st Oct 18
Gold Stocks Sentiment Shifting - 21st Oct 18
Why Is the Weakness In GBP/USD Likely? - 21st Oct 18
Stock Market Bubbles, Balloons, Needles and Pins - 21st Oct 18
The Incredibly Bullish Set-Up for Gold - 20th Oct 18
Here Comes the Stock Market Retest - 20th Oct 18
Waterproof Camera - Olympus Tough TG-5 Setup and First Use - 20th Oct 18
Israel’s 50-Year Time Bomb, Pushing Palestinians to the Edge - 19th Oct 18
Bitcoin Trend Analysis 2018 - 19th Oct 18
History's Worst Stock Market Crash and the Greatest Investing Lesson! - 19th Oct 18
More Signs of a Stocks Bull Market Top and Start of a Bear Market in 2019 - 19th Oct 18
Stock Market Detailed Map Of Expected Price Movement Before The Breakout - 18th Oct 18
Determining the Outlook for Gold Mining Stock - 18th Oct 18
Investor Alert: Is the Trump Agenda in Peril? - 18th Oct 18
Stock Market is Making a Sharp Rally After a Sharp Drop. What’s Next? - 18th Oct 18
Global Warming (Assuming You Believe In It) Does Not Affect Gold - 18th Oct 18
Best Waterproof Compact Camera Olympus Tough TG-5 Review - Unboxing - 18th Oct 18
Silver's Time Is Coming - 17th Oct 18
Stock Market Volatility Breeds Contempt - 17th Oct 18
Gold 7-Year Bear Market Phase Is Over - 17th Oct 18
Gold - A Golden Escape - 17th Oct 18
Tec Stocks Sector Set For A Rebound? - 16th Oct 18
Real Estate Transactions are Becoming Seamless with Blockchain-Powered Data Sets - 16th Oct 18
Important Elements of a Viral Landing Page - 16th Oct 18
Stephen Leeb Predicts 3-Digit Silver and 5 Digit Gold?! - 16th Oct 18
BREXIT, Italy’s Deficit, The EU Summit And Fomcs Minutes In Focus - 16th Oct 18
Is this the Start of a Bear Market for Stocks? - 16th Oct 18
Chinese Economic Prospects Amid US Trade Wars - 16th Oct 18
2019’s Hottest Commodity Is About To Explode - 15th Oct 18
Keep A Proper Perspective About Stock Market Recent Move - 15th Oct 18
Is the Stocks Bull Dead? - 15th Oct 18
Stock Market Bottoms are a Process - 15th Oct 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Looking at Real Estate Prices in Major World Cities

Housing-Market / US Housing Apr 07, 2018 - 05:16 PM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Housing-Market £593,369 – the average price of a house in London in January! (That’s about $829,000.)

$1 million plus – what 400 square foot condos go for in Vancouver!

$1.5 million – the cost of a median house in San Francisco!

$20 million – for a 2,000-square foot penthouse condo with a view of Central Park!

Who the hell can afford prices like these?


And the situation isn’t much improved in the less glitzy suburbs. Home prices have increased twice as fast as income growth.

It can’t, and won’t, go on like this for much longer.

In my five-city tour in Australia in February, I kept asking the audiences: Why do you think super-high real estate prices are good for your economy? After all, it raises the costs of office space and salaries for businesses. It forces households to spend more of their incomes on mortgages and rents, leaving less for everything else.

In a recent poll, 49% of adults said they would never be able to afford a home in Australia.

How can that be a good thing?!

Aging Baby Boomers are sitting on their real estate to milk every last drop of price appreciation out of it that they can (keeping inventory off the market in the process). And Millennials can’t afford to buy what homes are available.

Who is more important to our future? Rising workers or retiring and dying people?

Here’s how kooky it’s gotten out there…

There are 66 square foot “closet” condos – I’m talking starter homes – in cities like Hong Kong and Shenzhen in China. That’s basically a bed and a toilet… or a prison cell!

Is Hong Kong so great it’s worth living in that small a space??

I was there earlier this year and I say NO!

A few years ago, I was in Vancouver – my favorite city in North America. It’s also the favorite city for the affluent Chinese who are busy laundering their money out of China into major English-speaking cities around the world.

Not long ago, the trend was to pay $1 million for a 400 sq. ft. condo. That’s got to be $1.2 million plus by now. That means an everyday, young person or couple must pay $3,000 per square foot to get a small studio with only enough room for a fold down bed!

Is Vancouver that great?!

Luxury condos in Manhattan now typically cost $3,000 to $4,000 a sq. ft.

While hunkering down after Hurricane Maria, we saw a 560-sq. ft. apartment that was renting for $4,000!

560 sq. ft.

That’s smaller than a comfortable two car garage.

In fact, that’s less than half a volleyball court!

And people are paying $4,000 a month to rent that!!

That’s insane!

Then there’s San Francisco, home to the biggest real estate bubble in the U.S. thanks to foreign buyers and Silicon Valley. There the median house is going for $1.5 million. The median 2-bedroom apartment costs $3,040 per sq. ft.

Mark my words: something’s got to give.

And it may already have started…

Prices are slowing or backing off on the high end. Hot markets have gone from $10 million plus to $5 million plus. Manhattan condo sales have plummeted to a six-year low. The biggest drops are in the high-end townhouses that foreign buyers most prefer.

The number of landlords offering incentives on leases rose from 25% in August 2017 to 50% in December as the number of new leases dropped from 7,500 to 4,200.

In January, house prices in London fell 2.6% year-over-year, while the posh, centrally-located Wandsworth borough fell 14.9%. That’s the fastest rate of decline since the financial crisis.

And in the fourth quarter of 2017, San Francisco lost more people than any city in America.

Forty-nine percent said they could consider moving out of that $1.5 million median home. It would take a $303,000 annual income with a $300,000 (20%) down payment to afford that.

How many people have that kind of income, even in high-income San Francisco?

Only 12% of residents can now afford that.

When does the bubble end, when only 1% can afford the median home?

This is nuts and simply not sustainable. And the cracks are starting to show in the high end of most major markets.

The next real estate crash will be the opposite of the last one where it started at the low-end with subprime defaults. This one will work from the super overvalued high-end and work its way down to Homer Simpson.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2018 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules