Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Ray Dalio: This Debt Cycle Will End Soon - John_Mauldin
2.Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices 2019 No Deal BrExit 30% Crash Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.What the Oil Short-sellers and OPEC Don’t Know about Peak Shale - Andrew_Butter
5.Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - Troy_Bombardia
6.More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - Troy_Bombardia
7.US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - Troy_Bombardia
8.TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - James_Quinn
9.How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - Nadeem_Walayat
10.This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - Patrick_Watson
Last 7 days
Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts - 12th Dec 18
Gold & Global Financial Crisis Redux - 12th Dec 18
Wow Your Neighbours With the Best Christmas Projector Lights for Holidays 2018! - 12th Dec 18
Stock Market Topping Formation as Risks Rise Around the World - 11th Dec 18
The Amazing Story of Gold to Gold Stocks Ratios - 11th Dec 18
Stock Market Medium term Bullish, But Long Term Risk:Reward is Bearish - 11th Dec 18
Is a Deleveraging Event about to Unfold in the Stock Market? - 11th Dec 18
Making Money through Property Investment - 11th Dec 18
Brexit: What Will it Mean for Exchange Rates? - 11th Dec 18
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress - 10th Dec 18
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt - 10th Dec 18
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested - 10th Dec 18
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis - 10th Dec 18
Listen to What Gold is Telling You - 10th Dec 18
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing - 10th Dec 18
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals - 9th Dec 18
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? - 9th Dec 18
Rising US Home Prices and Falling Sales - 8th Dec 18
Choosing Who the Autonomous Car Should Kill - 8th Dec 18
Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold - 8th Dec 18
Will Weak US Dollar Save Gold? - 7th Dec 18
This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High - 7th Dec 18
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks - 7th Dec 18
The Secret Weapon for Getting America 5G Ready - 7th Dec 18
These Oil Stocks Are a Ticking Time Bomb - 7th Dec 18
How Theresa May Put Britain on the Path Towards BrExit Civil War - 7th Dec 18
How easy is it to find a job in the UK iGaming industry? - 6th Dec 18
Curry's vs Jessops - Buying an Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera - 5th Dec 18
Yield Curve Harbinger of Stock Market Doom - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Crashed While the Yield Curve Inverted - 5th Dec 18
Global Economic Outlook after Trump-Xi Trade War Timeout - 5th Dec 18
Stock Market Dow Plunge Following Fake US - China Trade War Truce - 5th Dec 18
Subverting BREXIT - British People vs Parliament Risks Revolution - 5th Dec 18
Profit from the Global Cannabis Boom by Investing in the Beverage Industry - 4th Dec 18
MP's Vote UK Government Behaving like a Dictatorship, in Contempt of Parliament - 4th Dec 18
Isn't It Amazing How The Fed Controls The Stock Market? - 4th Dec 18
Best Christmas LED String and Projector Lights for 2018 - Review - 4th Dec 18
The "Special 38" Markets You Should Trade ebook - 4th Dec 18
Subverting BrExit - AG Confirms May Backstop Deal Means UK Can NEVER LEAVE the EU! - 3rd Dec 18
The Bottled Water Bamboozle - 3rd Dec 18
Crude Oil After November’s Declines - 3rd Dec 18
Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting - Asia China Markets Risks - 3rd Dec 18
Weekly Charts and Update on Equity Markets, FX Trades and Commodities - 3rd Dec 18
TICK TOCK, Counting Down to the Next Recession - 3rd Dec 18
Stock Market Key (Short-term) Support Holds - 3rd Dec 18
Stocks Bull Market Tops Are a Process - 3rd Dec 18
More Late-cycle Signs for the Stock Market and What’s Next - 3rd Dec 18
A Post-Powell View of USD, S&P 500 and Gold - 2nd Dec 18
Elliott Wave: SPX Decision Time Is Coming Soon - 2nd Dec 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How You Could Make £2,850 Per Month

The 20 Cities Most at Risk in US Real Estate Market

Housing-Market / US Housing May 09, 2018 - 03:23 PM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Housing-Market Guess where the greatest real estate gains have been since the Great Recession and the massive QE surge?

Florida and California… surprise, surprise!

California real-estate prices have exploded because there’s very limited supply there and Florida prices shot to the moon thanks to that states high domestic and international migration.


But here’s a real surprise…

Property prices in Detroit and Flint, Michigan have also enjoyed massive appreciation! In fact, Detroit takes the number one spot, with prices gaining 193% while prices in Flint are up 169%!

The boom in those two cities is thanks to them starting from such a low point and rising from the ashes.

Look at this chart of the top 20 cities for appreciation…

https://economyandmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/20-Cities-real-esate-appreciation-.jpg

As you can see, nine of the top 20 biggest gainers were in Florida with Cape Coral/Ft. Myers third with prices up 173%. That area got incredibly overbuilt and then slammed during the bubble and crash. We know because my wife has relatives there. Tampa, my recent hometown, is up 115%. Port St. Lucie, in #20 spot, is still up 111%. That’s a lot for real estate in six years or so.

Miami is second in Florida at 143%. But the hottest areas like South Beach, Sunny Isles, and Brickell/downtown are roughly double what they were in the last bubble! It’s so insane that my wife and I decided not to move back there when her caretaking in Tampa was done.

Six of the biggest gainers were in California, topped, of course, by San Jose (Silicon Valley area) at 191%. These six were all in the Northern part of the state, around or near San Francisco.

The lowest gainers were Sacramento, with property prices up only 114% (one hour from San Francisco, where prices were up 158% after already being the most expensive city in the U.S.), and Stockton and Modesto, both of which are up strongly for more boring valley cities due to residents commuting to San Francisco.

Both major cities in Nevada were on this list with Las Vegas prices up 140% and Reno up even higher at 166%.

And, of course, property prices in Phoenix are up 124%, not quite as bubbly as last time.

Prices in Denver are up 121%, much bubblier this time compared to the last bubble. Even Dallas has more exposure to a crash this time around. As does much of Texas due to the fracking bubble.

These numbers may seem fantastic, but they present significant danger!

I always say this: The greater the bubble, the greater the burst… and the bubbles tend to occur in the most attractive cities for lifestyle or migration. Not in Omaha (sorry Warren Buffet).

Manhattan would be high on this list if it were broken out as a sector of New York City.

These places, where prices have blasted past levels set during the previous bubble, are in for a world of hurt. If you’re an owner and/or an investor in one of these areas, be very worried!

My best indicator of overvaluation continues to be:

What was your house or office building worth in January 2000 when this bubble first accelerated and became a bubble? 

That’s where you can expect prices to fall back to!

This is the second and last real estate bubble. It’s as bad as, if not worse than, the first bubble in most areas.

We’ll see a deeper downturn and deeper crash in most areas when this final bubble bursts between later 2018 and 2019. And this downturn will likely take something like six years to bottom as the last one did. But these top 20 “appreciators” are going to suffer the worst.

The question to ask yourself now is this: How much do you love your real estate? Enough to go down with it?

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2018 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules