Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - Dan_Amerman
3.China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - Graham_Summers
4.Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18 - Plunger
5.Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - Chris_Vermeulen
6.U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - Jim_Curry
7.Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - Brad_Gudgeon
8.The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - Harry_Dent
9.Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
10.The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - F_F_Wiley
Last 7 days
SPX Losing Gains - 17th Aug 18
What Gold Is Not - 17th Aug 18
Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - 16th Aug 18
Stock Market Higher Again, Correction Over? - 16th Aug 18
Up Your Forex Trading Game - 16th Aug 18
Large Caps Underperformance vs. Small Caps is Bullish for Stocks - 16th Aug 18
“The Big Grab” - Failing Pension and Retirement System - 16th Aug 18
How US Indo-Pacific Vision Forgot Asian Development - 16th Aug 18
Impulse Moves in the Currencies - 15th Aug 19
Best Merlin UK Theme Park Summer Holiday 2018 - Thorpe, Alton Towers, LegoLand or Chessington? - 15th Aug 18
The Essence of Writing an Essay that Must be Understood - 15th Aug 19
Is Solar Energy Rising From The Ashes Again? - 15th Aug 18
A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight - 15th Aug 18
Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - 15th Aug 19
A Depressed Economy And A Silver Boom - 15th Aug 19
Moving Averages Help You Define Market Trend – Here’s How - 14th Aug 18
It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - 14th Aug 18
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - 14th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - 13th Aug 18
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue? - 13th Aug 18
More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - 13th Aug 18
New Stock Market Correction Underway - 13th Aug 18
Talk Cold Turkey Economic Crisis - 13th Aug 18
Which UK Best Theme Park - Alton Towers vs Thorpe Park vs Lego Land vs Chessington World - 12th Aug 18
USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks - 12th Aug 18
Hardest US Housing Market Places to Live - Look Out Middle Class - 12th Aug 18
America’s Suburbs Are Making a Comeback - 12th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle, Seasonal Analysis and Economy - Video - 12th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 1st Dealer Oil Change Service - What to Expect - 11th Aug 18
How to Setup Webinars and Use Them to Overcome the Barriers in E-Learning - 11th Aug 18
Big US Stocks’ Q2’18 Fundamentals - 11th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - 10th Aug 18
SPX Testing Its First Support Level - 10th Aug 18
Dreaming of a "Comfortable Retirement" on a Public Pension? - 10th Aug 18
The Forrest Gump of All Future Democrat Election Losses - 10th Aug 18
More Uncertainty as Stocks Got Closer to January Record High - 10th Aug 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

The Death of the US Real Estate Dream

Housing-Market / US Housing Jul 22, 2018 - 12:52 AM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Housing-Market

In I showed how Japan’s first and more massive real estate bubble peaked in 1991. And then showed how it crashed right along our bubble model into 2013.

The difference was, it never bounced. Even when its Millennial generation came along to buy houses again.

A rise of “dyers” (sellers) were offsetting the rise of Millennial buyers.

Now let’s look at the U.S. bubble – or our double bubble.


Our first bubble peaked after peak demand from Boomers (2003) in early 2006 on a 41-year lag. Ant it crashed. The demographic downturn we predicted set in after 2007. Right when the sub-prime lending crisis blew up.

It took six years to build, and six years to crash into 2012. That’s down 34% versus Japan’s whopping 70% over 13 years.

https://economyandmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ENM-07-19-18-Chart-Two-DownsideRiskInUS-1024x768.png

Massive QE and ultra-low mortgage rates created a second – now artificial bubble – that has recently eclipsed the first one. And it looks almost identical in its size and buildup time – six years from 2012 into 2018.

This bubble will burst within the next year.

Its target is the low of 2012, and likely the low of early 2000. That creates a 40% to 50% downside in the next six years, into 2024-2025 or so.

So, what has happened since the first serious real estate downturn since the one from 1925 through 1933?

According to a study by the online apartment service RENTCafé, since 2007 ownership has dropped by 3.6 million and renters have gone up by 1.9 million.

Yes, that means more Millennials living with parents, and rising homelessness.

The causes are obvious: Much tighter lending standards, remarkably low supply – especially of affordable, less profitable starter homes – along with soaring prices and valuations…

Home prices have gone up 35%, while rent is up only 20% in the last five years, making home prices 75% more expensive than rental prices. Both are way above wage gains, which have been near nil.

Overall, the bubble and crash thus far are not nearly as bad as Japan.

Our demographics aren’t as unfavorable, but still very much so given the new model of subtracting dyers from peak buyers.

In this case, peak buying in the future is at age 42 for the U.S. and age 78 for dyers, as we don’t live as long as the Japanese on average.

So, even if we hit a bottom by 2025 when the highest numbers of Boomers die, prices will still be likely flat to down a bit into 2039 or so.

There’s a big difference from Japan’s demographic spiral.

Net demand does not turn negative until 2032 – so we won’t have tens of millions of empty homes like Japan.

Builders will be even more cautious next time around, as will buyers, at first.

Millennials will ultimately choose to buy just to control their own house and destiny, even though appreciation is unlikely to top modest inflation.

“The Dream” of getting rich off of real estate will be dead by 2024, and no longer considered “on hold.”

The demand for vacation and retirement homes will peak last for the aging Baby Boomer generation around 2026. That would be the best time to sell those homes, if you don’t near term, to avoid a bigger crash ahead.

The best thing you can do is convince your kids to wait until at least 2024 to buy – and be happy renting until then.

They should look to other financial investments to build their wealth. Whether it be stocks in the booming emerging nations (like India and Southeast Asia). Or the next great commodity boom that’ll favor metals.

Or, let Adam, our Chief Investment Strategist here at Dent Research, lend you a hand in preparing for what’s to come. Using

Whatever you do, just know that the dream of owning a home for profit is dead…

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2018 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

upwarddog
23 Jul 18, 01:53
Dream of making predictions is dead

Nadeem these soothsayers articles bring down the credibility to such an otherwise informative site. Dent also predicted a 50% drop in the S&P 500 for year 2013 which ended up over 13%. DOW 40,000 by 2010. Oops, wrong again. Nothing but outlandish predictions to garner attention and sell books.

How about Dent's exchange traded funds that were shut down? The list goes on. If he says sell real estate, probably a great time to continue holding.


Nadeem_Walayat
25 Jul 18, 20:31
US Housing

Yes, he got the US housing market very badly wrong,

sold it all the way UP!

I even had to mention in some articles back in 2013/14...

Will do a US housing market update soon....


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules