Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen - 11th Nov 19
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future - 11th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing - 11th Nov 19
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game - 11th Nov 19
Key Things You Need to Know When Starting a Business - 11th Nov 19
Stock Market Cycles Peaking - 11th Nov 19
Avoid Emotional Investing in Cryptocurrency - 11th Nov 19
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices - 10th Nov 19
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas - 10th Nov 19
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries - 10th Nov 19
AMAZON NOVEMBER 2019 BARGAIN PRICES - WD My Book 8TB External Drive for £126 - 10th Nov 19
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium - 9th Nov 19
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? - 9th Nov 19
BEST Amazon SMART Scale To Aid Weight Loss for Christmas 2019 - 9th Nov 19
Why Every Investor Should Invest in Water - 8th Nov 19
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? - 8th Nov 19
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message - 8th Nov 19
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? - 8th Nov 19
Where is the Top for Natural Gas? - 7th Nov 19
Why Fractional Shares Don’t Make Sense - 7th Nov 19
The Fed Is Chasing Its Own Tail; It Doesn’t Care What You Think - 7th Nov 19
China’s path from World’s Factory to World Market - 7th Nov 19
Where Is That Confounded Recession? - 7th Nov 19
FREE eBook - The Investment Strategy that could change your future - 7th Nov 19
Is There a Stock Market Breakout Ahead? - 6th Nov 19
These Indicators Aren’t Putting to an Economic Resurgence - 6th Nov 19
Understanding the Different Types of Travel Insurance - 6th Nov 19
The Biggest Gold Story Of 2020 - 6th Nov 19
Best Money Saving FREE Bonfire Night Fire Works Show Sheffield 2019 - 5th Nov 19
Is the Run on the US Dollar Due to Panic or Greed? - 5th Nov 19
Reasons Why Madrid Attracts Young Professionals - 5th Nov 19
Larger Bullish Move in USD/JPY May Just Be Getting Started - 5th Nov 19
Constructive Action in Gold & Silver Stocks - 5th Nov 19
The Boring Industry That Hands +500% Gains - 5th Nov 19
Stock Market Chartology vs Fundamentals - 4th Nov 19
The Fed’s Policy Is Like Swatting Flies with Nuclear Weapons - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market Warning: US Credit Delinquencies To Skyrocket In Q4 - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market Intermediate Topping Process Continues - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market $SPY Expanded Flat, Déjà Vu All Over Again - 4th Nov 19
How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce - 4th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce

Proven Gauges of the Stocks Bull Market

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Sep 19, 2018 - 10:41 AM GMT

By: Donald_W_Dony


As the current bull market roars into its 9th year, analysts, market pundits and investors, all wonder at one point, how much longer is this run going to go?

Gauges for the duration of the bull market vary considerably.

Analysts who value fundamentals generally review the levels of Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B), Debt-to-Equity, free cash flow and the PEG ratio to determine the "true value" of a company.

Fundamental analysts are normally not concerned with the overall market or a particular sector but rather focused on determining the value of a single security.

However, if these gauges are applied to the S&P 500, the US stock market is currently overvalued.

Economists review an equally large set of indicators to determine the health of the economy.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product, productivity vs. spending, unemployment rate, the business cycle and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are just some of the main indicators that economists will review.

A quick appraisal suggests that the US economy is on solid footing with unemployment at near-record lows, GDP is on an up-trend, CPI has fully recovered from the 2009 low and consumer spending is at an all-time high.

The two posted charts also indicate that the bull market has more room to run.

Chart 1 is a relative strength comparison between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) and the commodity market (CRB) going back over 130 years.

When the Dow is outperforming the CRB (stock cycle), the characteristics are extended bull markets and economic cycles, low levels of volatility, a stable or rising US dollar and less severe (more shallow) corrections.

During periods when commodities (CRB) generally outperform stocks (Dow), the corrections in the stock market are usually deeper (40%+), higher probability of inflation over 2%, declining US dollar and shorter business cycles.

And lastly, the US Yield Curve (Chart 2). This gauge of economic health has one of the best track records for signally the end of a bull market.

The top line is the Curve just before the stock market decline in 2008. It dates at March 01, 2007. What it shows is that short-term rates (1mo to 3mo) are higher than 30yr rates. This action was done by the Fed to slow the economy from overheating.

The 2nd lower line is the present US Yield Curve dated September 17, 2018. This is a normal curve and indicates that the Fed has room to raise rates to moderate the growing economy.

Bottom line: Depending on the method of analysis (fundamental, economics or technicals), the outlook can vary from overvalued to more room to grow.

We feel for most investors, using charts 1 and 2 to roughly gauge when the bull market is near a peak would be helpful.

The cycles in chart 1 suggest that the bull market may have another 8 to 10 years of advancing.

Chart 2 of the US Yield Curve is harder to predict as to when the Curve will be flat or inverted. The Yield Curve can be followed at:

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA

COPYRIGHT © 2018 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present.  He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.   

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms.  He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Donald W. Dony Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules