Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy - 11th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I - 11th Sep 19
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting - 11th Sep 19
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed - 11th Sep 19
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister - 11th Sep 19
Gold Significant Correction Has Started - 11th Sep 19
Reasons To Follow Experienced Traders In Automated Trading - 11th Sep 19
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back - 11th Sep 19
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History - 11th Sep 19
Westminister BrExit Extreme Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State - 10th Sep 19
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally - 10th Sep 19
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - 10th Sep 19
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future - 10th Sep 19
The Online Gaming Industry is Going Up - 10th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Will Stocks Go Nowhere Over the Next 10 Years?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Jan 30, 2019 - 11:01 AM GMT

By: Troy_Bombardia

Stock-Markets

The U.S. stock market has held up well during this earnings season. Now that earnings season is over, many traders are looking for a pullback/retest. Overall, the statistical evidence for a pullback/retest remains strong and convincing.


Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook.

Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable medium term direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

*Probability ≠ certainty. Past performance ≠ future performance. But if you don’t use the past as a guide, you are blindly “guessing” the future.

Will the next 10 years be worse for stocks than the past 10 years

The biggest argument that long term bears use to support their case is “stocks are overvalued, so CRASH CRASH CRASH”. They’ve been repeating this message for almost a decade now.

Over the past year, I’ve shown that valuations play a minor role in determining the stock market’s forward returns. Of much more importance is the state of the economy.

  1. When the economy is growing, the stock market’s long term direction is bullish (it’s a bull market)
  2. When the economy is deteriorating, the stock market’s long term direction is bearish (it’s a bear market).

These charts plot the S&P’s valuations (P/E Ratio) against its 1 year and 2 year forward returns.

As you can see, R squared is very low. Valuations explain less than 8% of the stock market’s forward returns over the next 1-2 years. This is not much better than flipping a coin.

As a result, some bears have resorted to using valuations to predict the stock market’s returns over the next 10 years.

Here’s the S&P’s valuation (Shiller P/E Ratio) plotted against the S&P’s 10 year forward returns, from 1900-2008. As you can see, valuations play a bigger role in predicting returns, but once again it is not a huge role (R squared = 0.16)

Valuations are high right now. Based on the above chart, the bears are predicting that “the stock market will go nowhere over the next 10 years – close to 0%”.

These statements are slightly misleading.

The stock market never goes flat for 10 years.

Here’s how the bears explain the 1990s and 2000s: valuations were very high in the 1990s. As a result, the S&P went “sideways” over the next 10 years.

This is misleading. When someone says “the stock market’s forward returns over the next decade will be zero”, it gives you the impression that the stock market will go nowhere over the next 10 years.

This is not true. Yes, the S&P 500 went sideways from 2000-2010. However, there were MASSIVE bull markets and bear markets. Someone who completely avoided the stock market because “stocks will go nowhere” would have missed out on a lot of opportunities.

Similarly, valuations were very high by the late-1960s. While the stock market went “nowhere” in the 1970s, there were MASSIVE up and down swings. Investors who avoided the stock market would have missed out on big opportunities. It would have been more prudent to ride the bull markets and sidestep the bear markets.

We cannot predict that the S&P will go nowhere over the next 10 years. We can only predict that the next decade won’t be as easy for those who buy and hold as it has been over the past decade. It will be more of a trader’s market, with massive up and down swings.

Yield curve and VIX

Last year I said that VIX would start to trend higher. Historically, VIX tends to trend higher towards the end of a bull market because the stock market’s volatility increases.

Here’s another way to look at this. This is the 10 year – 2 year yield curve. As it flattens, the economy gets closer and closer to a recession.

This is the yield curve (flipped on its head) overlapped with VIX. I have shifted the yield curve 2 years into the future, giving it a 2 year lead time against VIX.

As you can see, VIX tends to trend upwards in the long term as the yield curve comes close to inverting.

This is why VIX will probably not revisit levels seen in 2017. Even if the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs, volatility is here to stay. The stock market gets very choppy towards the end of every bull market because there’s a war going on.

  1. Buy and hold investors have been conditioned by a long bull market to constantly buy the dip because “stocks always go up in the long term”.
  2. More and more market timers are stepping out of the way and selling stocks.

NAAIM Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index measures the average exposure to U.S. equities among investment managers. It tanked in Q4 2018 along with the stock market. Now that the stock market has rallied, exposure has also increased.

Here’s what happens next to the S&P 500 when NAAIM Exposure goes from under 31 to above 75

*Data from 2006-present

As you can see, the stock market does well over the next 1 month, but forward returns deteriorate 3 months later.

*Keep in mind that the most recent signal date was January 14. 1 month later = mid-February, and 3 months later = mid-April. Stocks have indeed rallied over the second half of January 2019.

NASDAQ’s breadth

The NASDAQ 100’s breadth has surged along with the NASDAQ itself. The % of NASDAQ 100 stocks above their 50 day moving average has gone from under 5% (an extremely low reading) to above 75%.

Here are similar instances, and what the NASDAQ 100 did next.

Here are similar instances, and what the S&P did next.

Once again, you can see that forward returns are worse 2 months later. This demonstrates that most “crash and surge” patterns are followed by a retest.

Long term returns are very bullish, but as I’ve explained before, this time is probably different. Such breadth extremes were previously only registered at the bottom of equity bear markets. But with the rising popularity of ETFs, stocks are becoming more and more correlated to eachother. Hence, breadth extremes are going to be more and more common.

S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index

Some investors prefer the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index instead of the S&P 500 itself (a market cap weighted index). The argument is that Equal Weighted tends to outperform over the long run.

The Equal Weighted Index has significantly outperformed the Market Cap Weighted Index over the past month.

  1. Equal Weighted is up more than 8.3%
  2. Market Cap Weighted (normal S&P 500) is up less than 6.3%

Here are similar instances, and what the S&P 500 did next.

As you can see, the stock market’s returns over the next 1-2 weeks lean bearish.

Macro Context

This content is for members only.

Click here for yesterday’s market study

Conclusion

Here is our discretionary market outlook:

  1. The U.S. stock market’s long term risk:reward is no longer bullish. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the bull market is over. We’re merely talking about long term risk:reward. Long term risk:reward is more important than trying to predict exact tops and bottoms.
  2. The medium term direction (i.e. next 3-6 months) is neutral. Some market studies are medium term bullish while others are medium term bearish
  3. The stock market’s short term has a bearish lean due to the large probability of a pullback/retest. Focus on the medium-long term (and especially the long term) because the short term is extremely hard to predict.

Goldman Sachs’ Bull/Bear Indicator demonstrates that while the bull market’s top isn’t necessarily in, risk:reward does favor long term bears.

Our discretionary market outlook is not a reflection of how we’re trading the markets right now. We trade based on our clear, quantitative trading models, such as the Medium-Long Term Model.

Members can see exactly how we’re trading the U.S. stock market right now based on our trading models.

Click here for more market studies

By Troy Bombardia

BullMarkets.co

I’m Troy Bombardia, the author behind BullMarkets.co. I used to run a hedge fund, but closed it due to a major health scare. I am now enjoying life and simply investing/trading my own account. I focus on long term performance and ignore short term performance.

Copyright 2019 © Troy Bombardia - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules