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U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts

Housing-Market / Demographics Apr 28, 2019 - 03:23 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

This analysis directly continues on from (Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off!) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.


Instead my analysis so far (first made available to patrons) continues to paint a picture for UK house prices to remain on an overall upward trend trajectory.

uk-house-prices-analysis-2019

Silver Lining of Sorts

Thankfully it is not all gloom and doom as first the coalition government and then the Conservatives and likely future governments will increasingly recognise the exploding ageing population demographics time bomb and thus are actively engaged in attempts to alleviate the disastrous long-term consequences by both gradually raising the retirement age, which will probably be raised to 70 by 2030, as well as cutting the burden of costs that are presently being dumped onto the backs of tax payers as many pensioners cling on to million pound properties to pass down to their families rather than be utilised to finance care costs.

Whilst both ends of the spectrum i.e. those retiring and those entering the workforce will feel outraged at their own increasing costs, and diminishing services, however there is no way out of the demographics crisis other than for unpopular policies to be implemented as the alternative would be for an hyperinflationary economic collapse, as successive weak governments keep delaying making the difficult decisions by taking the easy option of just printing money and monetizing government debt (as was the policy of the last Labour Government) which would wipe out the purchasing power of both earnings and savings and just give the illusion of growth as most people have experienced over the past 10 years, as the price paid for bailing out the banking crime syndicate.

Other positive developments in recent years have been to address the problem of ageism so that people above a certain age are less likely to be seen as unemployable, the UK in this regard has come a long way over the past 15 years with now over 1.3 million pensioners working in retirement which coupled with extension of the retirement age should be seen as a positive trend until ultimately retirement will be resigned to the history books much as communism has been. After all retirement was never a sustainable social and economic policy as it was built upon the assumption that the ratio of workers to retirees would be sustainable at above X3, instead of the current trend towards below X2.

Whilst more elderly in the workplace over recent years has resulted in an improvement in the overall economy in terms of productivity in utilising what would have been an idle workforce, however as mentioned earlier, it does not resolve the tax and debt burden being placed onto future generations, which does confirm my view that at some point the retirement age will be scrapped altogether and along with it the state retirement pension to be replaced with a form of income support for low paid elderly workers, along the same lines as today's emerging Universal credits system. Though the problem here is political as a growing elderly population is also more likely to vote and therefore carry's a far greater influence on government policies which is set to only increase with each passing year. Therefore political parties have little choice but to lie to the grey vote to get elected and then break their promises citing economic fundamentals.

The objection put forward by many against an effective end to retirement is that it takes jobs away from the young, however this is a false premise as those starting out at the beginning of their careers are at a different stage of development than those that are in the last few years of their careers, just as those in their 40's usually do not compete against those in their 20's. Therefore even less so will those in their 60's and 70's, if anything it will allow for more efficient transfer of knowledge and experience between old and young workers rather than having an artificial cut off date.

So whilst out of control immigration of the past 15 years has been very bad in terms consuming resources and drawing on in work benefits, it does however have a silver lining as the children of immigrants will bear the demographic burden (as will all born during the past 25 years), which will hopefully buy Britain time for its inept politicians and for technological advances to alleviate the consequences of which by 2030 could imply that 1.9 workers per retiree could be sustainable given the then emerging impact of machine intelligence on all aspects of human life.

Though of course at some point the ageing population bulge will start to die out, unless machine intelligence delivers another leap in longevity, but for now I will leave analysis on the impact of that on house prices pending until the late 2020's.

Top 10 AI Stocks to Invest in the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

And my latest in-depth analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series updates my selection of top 10 AI stocks to invest in to capitalise on the unfolding mega-trend where I have warned to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why the hell did I not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!

Machine Intelligence Investing Mega-trend

So for first Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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