Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It

Companies / Investing 2019 May 21, 2019 - 11:52 AM GMT

By: Robert_Ross

Companies

Even the best investors have bad days.

Warren Buffett is no exception. In February, he watched one of his biggest acquisitions quickly sour.

I’m talking about Kraft Heinz, an American food giant that makes everything from ketchup to Oscar Mayer hot dogs to Kool-Aid.

The stock plunged 30% in one day after it announced a 36% dividend cut and never recovered:




This caught a lot of investors by surprise. That’s because Kraft Heinz fit Buffett’s signature strategy, known as value investing, to a T.

Buffett has used this strategy to make billions of dollars. So people expected Kraft Heinz to be safe.

But the writing was on the wall well before February. Here, I’ll explain why—and how to avoid stocks with similar problems.

But first, let’s look at how Buffett got into this jam…

There’s Always Money for a Coke

Value investors like Buffett make money buying stocks that are trading for less than their intrinsic value.

Imagine, for example, that a stock is trading for $20 per share. But your research says it’s worth $25 per share. If you’re correct, and the share price rises, you make a profit.

That’s how value investing works in a nutshell.

This strategy is one of the reasons Buffett acquired an 27% stake in Kraft Heinz in 2015. It also matched his preference for easy-to-understand companies like Coca-Cola and Duracell.

In theory, people buy their products no matter what’s happening in the economy. There’s always money for a Coke, a pack of batteries, or a hot dog, even when you’re broke.

No One Drinks Kool-Aid Anymore

On the surface, Kraft Heinz looked like a stable company with a safe dividend. Finding such companies is my forte, so check out my latest special report where I reveal my favorite dividend stocks for 2019. But if you looked deeper, you’d see the company is actually dealing with many issues.

The biggest issue is that Kraft Heinz doesn’t keep up with changing consumer trends.

People don’t want prepackaged foods like Oscar Mayer hot dogs anymore. Instead, they want simpler, healthier foods with fewer processed ingredients.

This has weakened demand for the company’s core products. (When was the last time you saw someone drinking Kool-Aid?)

In fact, the company’s sales flatlined from 2015 to 2018. Earnings rose slightly, but this came from cutting costs, not growing sales. Still, Kraft Heinz kept raising its dividend.

This was a major red flag.

How to Spot an At-Risk Dividend

When a company’s dividend rises faster than its earnings, it increases a closely watched indicator called the payout ratio.

The payout ratio is the percentage of net income a company pays to shareholders as dividends. The lower the payout ratio, the safer the dividend payment.

In Kraft Heinz’s case, the payout ratio has been rising for three years. Over that period, it has averaged 94%. That means the company immediately paid out almost every dollar it made.

Again, this is a major red flag. If a company pays out all of its profits in dividends, there’s nothing left over to reinvest in the business.

With Kraft Heinz, sales were already struggling. Add in the rising payout ratio, and more investors should have been wary.

Instead, they were hypnotized by Buffett’s blessing and the company’s (former) 5.5% dividend yield.

Then the inevitable payday came. February’s big dividend cut sent shares down 30% in one day. This cost Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway a paper loss of over $4.3 billion.

The Sin Stock Anomaly: Collect Big, Safe Profits with These 3 Hated Stocks

My brand-new special report tells you everything about profiting from “sin stocks” (gambling, tobacco, and alcohol). These stocks are much safer and do twice as well as other stocks simply because most investors try to avoid them. Claim your free copy.

By Robert Ross

© 2019 Copyright Robert Ross. - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in