Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

New US-Sino Trade Truce: Tougher Talks, More Economic Damage

Economics / Protectionism Jul 03, 2019 - 01:21 PM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Economics During the G20 summit, China and US agreed to re-start the trade talks. As the US trade war is slowing China’s growth, the collateral damage is now spreading in the US economy, while undermining global prospects.

Despite the White House’s efforts to lobby other countries against Huawei, President Trump also said that US companies can supply the technology giant, which the US, Department of Commerce blacklisted last month.

After Osaka, the negotiators face challenging obstacles, despite still another temporary timeout. Deep bilateral disagreements prevail about major structural issues.


But what’s the current economic impact of the new trade truce?

Limited short-term impact on China

In China, the most recent US tariff hikes on $200 billion of Chinese US exports is expected to penalize about 0.1% of China’s GDP growth in the coming year. That is enough to create significant concern, but not sufficient to cause substantial damage – yet.

Even if the US would impose 25% tariffs on all goods from China, the largest Chinese companies would likely adjust, thanks to their domestic focus.

As the US-based Standard & Poor’s has stressed, half of the rated Chinese companies are state-owned-enterprises (SOEs), which operate in sectors with limited US exposure.

Moreover, the vital property sector is also reliant on domestic demand.

Nevertheless, the secondary effects of a protracted and broader trade war could prove more challenging over time. In China, such a scenario could mean greater shifts in supply chains, currency volatility, eroding market confidence. 

Despite Trump’s bravado, the US economy is far from immune to trade-war damage, however. In fact, the trade wars’ adverse impact is only beginning to bite in the US.

Broader impact on US industries

In the US, the tariff increase from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports could directly penalize some 0.3% from growth in the coming year.

Typically, US companies that garner a significant share of their revenues from China will take the most severe hits. That’s why Trump wants China to buy “tremendous” amounts of farm goods. US farm sector has suffered the most of retaliatory measures, while the White House’s $12 billion bailout package for farmers has failed to soften the blow.

In fact, the Trump administration has worked itself into a double-bind. If it piles up another bailout of $15 to $20 billion, it might prove too little too late in the farm sector, while other industries could demand similar packages.

The damage is spreading to advanced industries, which include semiconductor giants, such as Micron Tech and Texas Instruments (40% to 60% of revenues from China), and other technology conglomerates, including Apple and TTM Technologies (about 20%), and consumer and auto companies, such as NIKE and Cooper-Standard (10% to 20%).

The White House is pressuring US firms to move their supply chains away from China. Reportedly, Apple is considering diversifying15% to 30% of its capacity away from China. Yet such proposed moves would come with a huge cost.

None of the new country destinations can offer a high-level technology and logistics infrastructure that would be comparable to that in China. So the costs of these firms will climb, which will penalize their global competitiveness. Worse, today China is the world’s largest and most rapidly-growing marketplace. If US companies reduce their presence in China, they are taking a cut in their most vital future source of income.

That’s why Trump said in Osaka that US companies can – for “time being” – supply Huawei. These giants, particularly Intel and Alphabet (Google) have lobbied intensively for Huawei, which is their major client and a substantial source of revenues. Moreover, Qualcomm and Broadcom and US semiconductor and technology sector would be hit by the loss of Huawei orders.

Collateral damage in US economy

With continued trade tensions, the damage is spreading in the U.S. economy. As the fiscal stimulus impact is fading, private investment is softening and uncertainty increasing. US economic growth is likely to remain below 2.5% in 2019 and decelerate to 1.8% in 2020.

As the impact of the Trump tax cuts and other one-time benefits will diminish, US economy will be more vulnerable to a recession risk, even a major market correction.

Worse, if the talks fail and the White House will choose to expand tariffs against all Chinese trade, it will be harder for US firms to pass on costs to consumers, which will penalize these companies’ competitiveness.

If US would raise tariffs against all Chinese imports, US growth could plunge below 1 percent in 2020 – at the eve of the midterm election.

Global economic prospects

Global economic integration is typically measured by trade, investment and migration. After a decade of slow recovery, each indicated progress. But since 2018, the Trump administration’s tariff wars have effectively undermined the expected global recovery.

World investment remains sub-optimal. World trade has suffered extraordinary decline. World migration has plunged and the number of globally displaced now exceeds 70 million people – far more than after World War II.

Of course, there is still a chance to salvage the US-China trade talks. That, however, would require a substantial reassessment of the US stance and objectives. China will not sign a trade deal that is predicated on unilateral geopolitical objectives rather than economic realities.

The final outcome cannot be based on coercion. It must rely on a mutual effort at a sustained reconciliation that will reflect both countries’ sovereign interests and the compelling long-term economic realities of the global economy.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/  

© 2019 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dan Steinbock Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in