Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Precious Metals Continue to Look Higher

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Jul 26, 2019 - 02:44 PM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt


Last weekend, the important point of note was that silver had basically run out of room. It had a series of 1’s and 2’s set up for it to “melt up,” but it had to do so rather soon. Well, this past week, I would say that silver finally followed through and it took it directly to the level at which I noted on the chart was our next major resistance level. In fact, we were almost able to top tick the high of the week right at our resistance point, at which time I sent out an alert when I suspected that a pullback was imminent. Within minutes after that alert, silver began its pullback within wave iv.

The reason this is a major resistance level is that it is the 1.00 extension off the low we struck in 2018. Oftentimes, this could present us with an a-b-c corrective structure, wherein a=c. And, for this reason, I have been very cautious about silver holding over the 15.90 region. As long as it holds that support, and continues higher, it makes it less likely (but not impossible) that this rally is a corrective rally pointing us down to levels below those struck in 2018 for a final low.

(Please note that I corrected the labeling on silver to maintain consistency with what I discuss below).

So, with some of the questions I have been having about micro structure within the metals complex overall, I spent some time this weekend pulling up “clean” charts and redoing the Elliott Wave counts from scratch - starting with the GDXJ, which I have included this week with a very simple labeling. The conclusion that this chart brings for me – which is similar to what I am seeing across the complex – is that the upside does not yet look to be complete.

In looking at the GDXJ itself, as you can see, it looks very similar to my silver count, wherein the next push higher would complete wave iii of (3). This seems to be a solid count as long as we do not break below the blue box on the chart.

So, as it stands now, it would seem that we will likely have higher to go in the near term in the complex and much of the complex seems to be aligned within the current count. This is now even more so the case with silver catching up this past week.

But, do remember that all charts will not progress equally within the exact same wave count, which is why I harp on viewing each chart on its own. For this reason, our EWT Miners service will be quite valuable to investors who want to track those mining stocks that are lagging the rest of the market. Once certain miners reach their ideal targets, you can then choose to rotate into the miners which have lagged and which will likely catch up.

As far as GLD is concerned, I think we are tracing out an ending diagonal to complete this wave iii, which I outline on the 8 minute chart. But, in the alternative, I will view the GLD as having completed a leading diagonal for wave i of (v) of iii, which would project much higher for this wave degree. As it stands now, the ending diagonal seems to be pointing towards the 139 region. However, if we begin to see the market rally in a clear impulsive structure, and we see a strong break out over 140, then it is likely pointing us to the 144-46 region to complete wave iii of (3) of 3, presented on the daily chart.

So, after reviewing many different charts across the complex, I have to maintain a continued bullish bias until we see some break of support. Until such time, this market seems poised to head higher, as I still do not have any clearly completed patterns off the lows. In fact, even the “possible” a-b-c structure in silver does not have a completed count, and would likely need at least one, if not two more rallies. Therefore, I want to reiterate that as long as supports continue to hold, I am going to continue looking higher over the coming week. Should something change, I will clearly notify you as soon as I can.

Lastly, I continue to be asked where I would get more aggressive and use leverage again. Once we complete wave iii, and see a nice pullback/consolidation for wave iv, I will then be looking for a 1-2 structure off the bottom of wave iv. Once that develops, I will be looking to add some leverage to my account to play for wave v of (3). Until then, I intend on riding my regular positions in the complex.

In the past I have warned many times about looking at the market from an objective standpoint. This has allowed me to be appropriately bullish at the bottoms (despite being practically abused by some for focusing on the bullish potential in the market when we were at the lows), as well as to be able to set aside the frustration we felt over the last 3 years with the prior failed break outs.

So, I am again suggesting we maintain objectivity on both sides of this trade. While there is still some possibility for failure, it is likely that the bull market has resumed in a big way. Yet, we need just a little more structure filled in (mostly to be past the 1.00 extensions) to be much more confident of the larger degree bullish impulsive pattern we are following through the micro wave structure. And, should we be able to continue higher over the coming week or two, then that will solidify this count for me a bit better, which will make me more comfortable in doing more aggressive trading. But, in the meantime, I will likely be watching charts like GOLD to see if the market is going to provide us with more of a pullback before we begin the expected march to much higher levels in the coming years.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD and silver.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of, a live trading room featuring his analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets. He recently founded, a live forum featuring some of the top fundamental analysts online today to showcase research and elevate discussion for traders & investors interested in fundamental rather than technical analysis.

© 2019 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules