Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Signs Still Point To Lower Levels In Precious Metals

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Oct 17, 2019 - 10:39 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Commodities

Originally published on Sat Oct 12 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: While we have been tracking the metals market for the next rally set-up, we have seen some signs that the market may attempt to begin that rally sooner rather than later. However, I have to be honest in noting that I am seeing more signs that lower levels may still be struck before we are ready for that rally.

So, as I have been saying for the last few weeks, I am going to still treat the market as likely needing more of a corrective downside structure before we begin the next rally phase – until the market is able to prove otherwise.


Allow me to begin this update with the chart that probably provides me the clearest perspective of further weakness in the coming weeks. I have highlighted this chart several times in the past due to the textbook pattern is has been providing to us, as well as an illustration of the type of move I expect in the heart of a 3rd wave in some of the other mining stocks we are tracking. The chart I speak of is RGLD.

While the move in wave (3) on this chart is what I expect to see in the NEM, GDX and GDXJ next, I have to note that this chart is rather clearly pointing to a c-wave lower in this current pullback before we are ready to embark on the next major rally phase. And, this chart is quite compelling in its simplicity and standard structure.

When I review all the other charts, they all line up reasonably well within this perspective of a needing more corrective downside. While a bounce can still take hold before this happens, I think the preponderance of the evidence suggests that lower levels can still be seen in the complex before what I am counting as a 2nd wave pullback completes.

The one standout to me right now is that the gold price per ounce may actually have already completed its pullback for what I am counting as a wave iv in that chart.

Yet, as I have said many times before, if the market can stage a strong impulsive rally over the coming week or two, followed by a corrective 2nd wave pullback, with a rally back over the high struck in the initial rally, then I will clearly abandon expectations of further corrective action, and immediately turn uber-bullish. But, until such time, I am still going to maintain expectations of lower levels to be seen before this current pullback/consolidation completes.

See charts illustrating Avi's wave counts.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring his analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets. He recently founded FATRADER.com, a live forum featuring some of the top fundamental analysts online today to showcase research and elevate discussion for traders & investors interested in fundamental rather than technical analysis.

© 2019 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in