Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Coronavirus Impact on Global Economic GDP Numbers

Economics / Global Economy Mar 19, 2020 - 11:44 AM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Economics

Continuing our earlier multi-part research post related to our extensive number crunching and predictive modeling systems expectations going forward many years, (Part I) this second part will highlight some existing data points and start to discuss the concepts of what the Covid-19 virus event may do to the immediate global economy.  Remember, in the first part of this article, we shared research related to the US Fed Funds Rate (FFR) and how the Covid-19 virus event may create an environment of economic malaise over the next 12 to 24+ months as well as potentially disrupt the population and deficits over a 5+ year span.

This type of event is very similar to war (think WWII) in the sense that consumer spending changes, population growth, and levels change, GDP changes and deficits change for all involved.  Our researchers modeled the GDP levels from 2017 will now with the intent of attempting to identify probable outcomes of GDP output throughout the world over the next 5+ years.  Throughout these types of events, a massive capital shift takes place where consumers within areas impacted by war shift their spending and purchasing habits to address the immediate real needs of their attempted survival.  Speculation vanishes.  People only spend on things they are confident they can afford to risk their money on.  Anyone who is able to take advantage of the displaced or disparaged has a real opportunity to create some real gains if they don’t become the next displaced or disparaged individual.


Here is some data we used to model what we believe will happen over the next 2 to 5+ years as a result of the Covid-19 virus event.  We are using this global data as a basis for our modeling going forward and attempting to align 2018 and 2019 data with that reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve data.  Our objective is to attempt to identify the scope and extend of any potential change in economic cycles going forward and to prepare our friends and followers of what to expect.

This data illustrates the scale and scope of the total global GDP output of all the nations on the planet for 2017.  It is important to understand that China and the United States are the two biggest GDP producers of all nations.  Between the US and China, both nations produce roughly 40% of the world’s total GDP annually.  When you consider all nations producing more than $1.5T in annual GDP on this graphic, these 12+ nations (including OTHERS) produce nearly 78% of the world’s total GDP annually.

The nations that make up this list of top GDP producing nations are:

These nations (and the group of nations listed as OTHERS) total almost 80% of total annual GDP across the entire planet.  Keeping in mind that we are attempting to model the Covid-19 virus event, which nations are likely to be the hardest hit on this list?  Obviously China, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea, and the United States are all prime targets of the Covid-19 virus event.  Brazil, Canada, France, India, and Others are secondary targets for GDP disruption.  Yet, their proximity to the price candidates makes them fairly easy targets for future GDP disruption related to the Covid-19 virus.

The point we are trying to make by illustrating this is that 80% of the world’s total GDP is at risk over the next 24+ months related to shifting consumer spending, central bank activities, asset valuation levels and much more.  We’re not talking about 4% or 5% of the world – we’re clearly showing you that 80% of the world’s total economic output is within the cross-hairs of this virus event.

Be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Our modeling suggests the 2017 GDP levels presented by the image (above) and the subsequent yearly REAL GDP levels presented by the St. Louis Federal Reserve deliver this data as a basis for our modeling system.

Our attempted modeling of the Covid-19 virus event across global economies is based, in part, on what happened in the 2008-09 Credit Crisis event.  Throughout that span of time (2008 to 2009), US GDP fell -3.36% over 12 to 16 months.  The difference between this Credit Crisis event and the Covid-19 event is that the Covid-19 event appears to be disrupting a broader segment of economic sectors across dozens of nations/cities all at once.  Whereas the Credit Crisis event resulted in somewhat isolated asset and economic contractions related to banking, insurance, credit, and assets – the Covid-19 virus event appears to be much broader in scope and consequences.  Our researchers believe the Covid-19 virus event will reach nearly every segment of the global economy in some way or form – causing some type of economic disruption either in supply, demand or overall consumer activity related to the sector/economic component.  Therefore, we believe the scope of the contagion event related to Covid-19 will be, at a minimum, 2x to 3x the scale and scope of the Credit Crisis.

We’ve come to the conclusion that the disruption to earnings, revenues, expenses and other economic factors across a broad spectrum of global economic outputs may look something like this.

We believe Q1 and Q2 of this year will be a disaster for almost all nations.  We believe there is a chance Q3 and Q4 2020 may see a moderately strong recovery (or the start of a recovery).  We believe winter 2020 and into 2021 may bring further influenza type illness and may begin the process anew.  Or, we believe the recovery process may be somewhat stalled in 2021 as we believe the fallout from the previous year may still be taking place across multiple asset classes and corporate level and banking/insurance level industries.  We believe that by mid-2022 and early 2023, the global economy will begin to find a solid foundation for future economic growth and that global GDP may begin to move higher overall.

We are basing our modeling process on the information we have gained from our experience in the markets and from living through the 2008-09 Credit Crisis event.  Far too many people fail to understand the contagion event process that takes place when consumers abandon traditional spending patterns as income levels become more “at-risk”.  As we’ve suggested many times in previous articles, consumer spending and the “flock mentality” is not something to underestimate.  Current GDP levels are calculated mostly by consumer spending activity.  Think about what that means going forward.

Here are some St. Louis Federal Reserve data charts that we used in attempting to model these results.

A potential further decrease in M2 (velocity of money) throughout this Covid-19 virus event is very likely.  This is one of the primary reasons we believe this event may last more than 24 months in total span.  We believe the continued decline of the M2 velocity level is a very strong indication that historical levels of economic activity (1965 through 1995) simply are not present in today’s global economic world.  This complicates how money is used within the global market – it is being engaged as active money transactions by a -30% ration than 1995 levels. If M2 continues to decline, we believe the consequence of this move will relate to an even slower recovery from the Covid-19 virus event.

In the next part of this article, we’ll explore the real data points and outlier expectations of the 2020 Covid-19 virus event.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules