Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Markets Failing to Give Another AI Mega-trend Buying Opportunity - 6th Jun 20
Is the Stock Bulls' Cup Half-Full or Half-Empty? - 6th Jun 20
Is America Headed for a Post-Apocalyptic Currency Collapse? - 6th Jun 20
Potential Highs and Lows For Gold In 2020 - 5th Jun 20
Tying Gold Miners and USD Signals for What Comes Next - 5th Jun 20
Rigged Markets - Central Bank Hypnosis - 5th Jun 20
Gold’s role in the Greater Depression of 2020 - 5th Jun 20
UK Coronavirus Catastrophe Trend Analysis Video - 5th Jun 20
Why Land Rover Discovery Sport SAT NAV is Crap, Use Google Maps Instead - 5th Jun 20
Stock Market Election Year Cycles – What to Expect? - 4th Jun 20
Why Solar Stocks Are Rallying Against All Odds - 4th Jun 20
East Asia Will Be a Post-Pandemic Success - 4th Jun 20
Comparing Bitcoin to Other Market Sectors – Risk vs. Value - 4th Jun 20
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals - 3rd Jun 20
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation - 3rd Jun 20
The Corona Riots Begin, US Covid-19 Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 20 -
Stock Market Short-term Top? - 3rd Jun 20
Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large - 3rd Jun 20
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention - 3rd Jun 20
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Subprime Mortgage Problem Contained? Give Me A Break!

Housing-Market / US Housing Apr 04, 2007 - 11:12 AM GMT

By: Michael_K_Dawson

Housing-Market

I think that some heads are going to roll when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are forced to admit that the subprime mortgage problem is not contained.  In my previous professional life, I worked as a sales person for a software company.  We as sales people were often referred to as “feet on the street.”  In addition to our sales responsibilities, we were responsible for gathering competitive information, surveying the landscape, detecting trends and most importantly feeding this data back to headquarters.  Through formal as well as informal channels, the “feet on the street” ensured that the executives always had the most current field data. Since the executives were constantly speaking to Wall Street or in Industry forums inaccurate data could be very costly in many ways.

Obviously there is no such thing as “feet in the street” in the Government.  If it were so, Paulson never would have made the following statement “Damage to the American economy from the housing market downturn and subprime mortgage foreclosures appears to be contained…” Five days after his remarks, in a statement released by a Buffalo, N.Y. based regional bank M&T Bank Corp (MTB), it stated that it is having trouble selling some of its loans.  Prices dropped more than anticipated in its recent auction of some of its Alt-A loans – loans that fall between subprime and prime.


Headlines on that same day were:

  • U.S. mortgage woes could hit regional banks (Reuters)
  • Mortgage Woes Spread Up Credit Ladder (AP)

That doesn't sound like a problem that is contained.  Maybe Paulson's people should be put on the street.  Bernanke's cadre of PhDs is no better.  One would think that a PhD would be an expert in simple deductive reasoning like if A =B and B = C then A = C.

  • A - Tighter lending standards due to the subprime fiasco translates into a significant reduction in marginal buyers. 
  • B - This leads to a reduction in demand for housing.
  • C - Imagine if no one showed up for your open house week after week.  Common sense suggests to lower price to stimulate interest.  Lowering your price affects all homes in surrounding area whether for sale or not.

In other words, the subprime fiasco adds to the existing inventory glut in housing and adversely affects all housing prices.  A simple Google search would highlight the importance of housing prices to the economy.  The following commentary from Comstock Partners helps connect the dots:

“In addition it has been well demonstrated that mortgage equity withdrawals (MEW) have been a cash cow providing home owners with hundreds of billions of dollars that have gone into consumer spending.  On an annualized basis MEW soared from about $100 billion in 2000 to $780 billion at the peak in the 3rd quarter of 2005.  From that point it has already dropped by about 55% to $350 billion in the 3rd quarter of this year.  Estimates as to how much of this went into consumer spending vary between 40 and 60%.  This so-called “wealth effect” has been an extremely important prop to consumer spending as real consumption growth has far outpaced real income growth in recent years.  With MEW no longer providing households with a substantial amount of extra cash and jobs not rising as fast, consumer spending growth is likely to slow significantly.”

The housing “wealth effect” has driven tremendous lifestyle changes.  Companies that catered to these changes profited handsomely.  Harley Davidson (HOG) was one of the benefactors.  Its stock price outperformed the S&P 500 by 130% from 2000-2006.

hog.gif

 Doug Kass stated in 3/28/07 article :

“Even motorcycle (loans) are hitting potholes! Indeed, it appears growing credit losses and delinquencies are beginning to render Harley-Davidson's motorcycle loans, well, increasingly like hogs.

Thirty-day delinquencies (and loss trends) in Harley-Davidson's receivables book offer a clear picture that credit-quality issues are broadening as HOG's receivables experience has begun to trace a pattern of deterioration that we first began to see in subprime mortgage loans during the first half of 2006.”

Vanishing “wealth effect”; Alt-A loan issues; I haven't bothered mentioning the massive layoffs by the bankrupt and the scaled-down mortgage companies.  Maybe Paulson and Bernanke are using an abstract technical definition of “contained.” 

http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com/

Michael K Dawson founded the Time and Money Group with the aim of educating and sharing 20 years of experience on how to reach financial freedom. "Financial Freedom is freedom to focus on what is truly important to you and your family without having to trade time for a wage. It is enabled by a portfolio of income producing assets, managed by you, which generates sufficient income to cover your yearly expenses on an ongoing basis. It provides both time and money". The intent of his website is to become a repository of information to put you on the fast track to becoming financially free. For further infromation visit http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com/


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules