Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

AI Tech Stocks Portfolio

Companies / AI Aug 15, 2024 - 10:57 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies

Current state of portfolio is 79.4% invested, 20.6% cash, though 9.76% is in crypto's which is meant to be temporary, i.e. I plan to exit virtually all of my crypto positions during the crypto bull market where the key risk is that it ends a lot earlier than expected, so effective percent invested in stocks is 70%.

All of the primaries and secondaries have delivered huge profits except Tesla and Apple. Even crappy IBM has delivered on its spike to $200 prompting heavy trimming, the big surprise was Micron, I was not expecting $130+! As for sleepers, Samsung has also delivered whilst Intel continues to snooze. All whilst most investors have a large chunk of cash parked in money market accounts because they listened to clown Cramer and the CNBC cartoon network so they are missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history, what else can you call Nvidia 10xing in 18 months!


I always look at valuations where column V comes in handy which tells one how cheap or expensive a stock is relative to it's past PE range. On that basis Nvidia is relatively cheap as are Google and Tesla. The rest of the AI stocks are much harder buys at current valuations.

Further a field I have been adding to GPN, GFS, BIDU, JBL, FCX, SLB, as opportunities present themselves.

AI stocks portfolio - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h9WcWdB4jw2yYlOEinoigRGtO-Z8MIkMo87Iyn4qHyY/edit?usp=sharing

The bottom line is buy the dips in target stocks as opportunities materialise.

The real secret to successful investing is to buy the pain trade, right now the pain trade is TESLA! This is how I tend to buy heavy near market bottoms because whilst most investors are vomiting out of their positions, can't take the pain of draw downs, I tend to buy even more which is VERY PAINFUL! I.e. buying more META at $92 was EXTREMELY PAINFUL given the draw down at that time where a plethora of comments were seeking reassurance that META was not FINISHED, the problem is at the bottom ALL OF THE NEWS IS BAD! So all I can do is show you what I am doing and it is up to you to make up your own minds what to do with your money because there is no magic indicator other than experience of having done it many times before. Now META is my biggest winner in terms of delivering cold hard cash and everyone's looking back and wish they had bought more at $100, but at the time they would likely be SELLING OUT of META on the tiniest of rally off the low, just as is likely the case today with Tesla, "if only Tesla gets to $200 then I can exit this painful stock" is what's going through many Tesla investors mind, This is why most investors make very little if anything investing because they can't take the PAIN! Learn to embrace the PAIN and then you will WIN BIG!

Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split

Nvidia has delivered huge profits upto about $400 when I sold all of my shares, since which it has been tough going, I bought upto about 7% during its recently dip to $730 only to trim most on it's subsequent rally to $1250. Clearly the price action of this stock is such that I am unable to stay invested given that it is so abnormal. As I often write Nvidia is not a normal stock, Nvidia is AI! Google was meant to be what Nvidia is, but whilst still a great stock it clearly is no Nvidia!

Nvidia getting to $1250 is NOT unexpected, after all I mentioned way back at around $800 that I expect Nvidia to double to $1600, but not in a few weeks! So whilst I want to accumulate a sizeable position in Nvidia the stock price behaviour is such vs my investing style that I am unable to do so, i.e. I trim fomo rallies and buy market panics. Where what I seek in the likes of Nvidia is a deviation from it's high which we got down to about $730 which saw my position 7x from 1% to 7%, current 3%.

I recall back in October 2022 when I was buying Nvidia at $120 and under many were commenting that they would wait for $90 down to $50, at that time I managed to accumulate to about 65% invested. So now the stock is back at $120 following it's stock split :)

Nvidia's metrics are still very strong at EGFS +38%, +65%, but the direction of travel is -26% which suggests Nvidia stock is likely to consolidate, i.e. I don't think this rally is going to continue, so the $125 high should hold for a while. I expect Nvidia to carve out a new consolidation range that could extend back down to below $100 for a 25%+ deviation from it's high, hence an opp to accumulate.

Bottom line Nvidia is at the core of AI, thus it is highly probable that Nvidia will at least double once more from current $120 to $240.However I would not buy at current levels instead seek a deviation from the high where a correction to sub $100 looks probable for at least a 25% deviation from it's $125 high. And it does not really matter if I never manage to build a significant position in Nvidia as there are plenty of stocks out there to build positions in, you don't always get what you want.

This article is an excerpt from extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

CONTENTS

Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024

Access to my most recent stock market analysis -

Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks.

Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Q2 Earnings Correction Opportunities

The Most Hated Stocks Bull Market in History! Crypto July Blood Bath

And access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich series.

Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide 2023

Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3

The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH

Here's what you get access to for just $7 per month -

※ Patrons Get FIRST access to all of my In-depth analysis and high probability Trend Forecasts, usually 2 full months before the rest of the world. Notified by Patreon by email as well as posted on this page and I will also send a short message in case the extensive email does not make it to your inbox.

Access to my carefully constructed and maintained AI Tech Stocks Portfolio that is updated on an ongoing basis, that includes on going commentary and a comprehensive spreadsheet that features unique innovations such as the remarkably useful EGF's.

A concise to the point Investing Guide that explains my key strategies and rules

 Regular content on How to Trade & Invest  incorporated into most articles so as to keep patrons eyes on the big picture and net get too sucked into the noise of price swings.

 Access to my comprehensive How to Really Get Rich series of articles, clear concise steps that I will seek to update annually and may also eventually form a Patrons only ebook.

Access to conclusions from my ongoing market studies from a total of over 200 conducted studies over the decades. updated whenever the market poses a question to be answered. Also enjoy the fruits of R&D into machine learning such as the CI18 Crash indicator that correctly called both the pandemic crash (Feb 2020) and the 2022 bear market (Dec 2021) well before the fact.

Join our community where I reply to comments and engage with patrons in discussions.

 I will also keep my Patrons informed of what I am currently working on each month.

 Influence over my analysis schedule.

My objective is to provide on average 2 pieces of in-depth analysis per month and regular interim pieces of analysis as market briefs. So over a 12 month period expect to receive at least 24 pieces of in-depth analysis. Though my focus is on providing quality over quantity as you can see from the extent and depth of my analysis which I deem necessary so as to arrive at that which is the most probable market outcome.

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2024 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in